Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Decline in RTE cereals brings down the overall market
- Downward trend to continue
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2014-24
- The category makes progress on sugar reduction
- Breakfast cereals attract negative headlines
- The benefits of fibre hit the headlines
- Ageing population should support at-home breakfasts
- Companies and brands
- Rising prices prop up value sales for leading brands
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail RTE cereal market, 2017/18 and 2018/19
- Quaker Oat So Simple retains lead in hot cereals
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail hot cereal market, 2017/18 and 2018/19
- L/N/R sugar claims rise
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- Figure 4: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market featuring L/N/R sugar claims, 2015-19
- Nestlé and Kellogg’s ramp up convenience
- Above-the-line adspend declines
- Power and energy messages take centre stage on health front
- Quaker and Weetabix lead on trust, quality and health perceptions
- The consumer
- Nine in 10 eat breakfast cereals
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- Figure 5: Types of breakfast cereals eaten, May 2019
- RTE cereals feature at least most days for half of users
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- Figure 6: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, May 2019
- Weekday breakfasts are key occasion
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- Figure 7: When breakfast cereals are eaten, May 2019
- High levels of interest in functional benefits
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- Figure 8: Functional benefits consumers would ideally like from a breakfast cereal, May 2019
- Green packaging initiatives resonate
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- Figure 9: Interest in breakfast cereal concepts, May 2019
- High level of openness towards reduced-sugar recipes
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- Figure 10: Behaviours relating to breakfast cereals, May 2019
- Healthy characteristics make sweet cereals permissible
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, May 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Gut health messages hold potential for the category
- Facts
- Implications
- Green packaging initiatives resonate
- Facts
- Implications
- High level of openness towards reduced-sugar recipes
- Facts
- Implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Decline in RTE cereals brings down the overall market
- Downward trend to continue
- The category makes progress on sugar reduction
- Breakfast cereals attract negative headlines
- The benefits of fibre hit the headlines
- Ageing population should support at-home breakfasts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Decline in RTE cereals brings down the overall market
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- Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of breakfast cereals, at current and constant prices, 2014-24
- Downward trend to continue
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- Figure 13: Forecast of UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2014-24
- Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2014-24
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- RTE cereals remain on a downward volume trend
- Competition and consumer concerns underpin lacklustre volume trend
- Rising prices support value growth in 2019
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- Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of RTE cereals, at current and constant prices, 2014-24
- Pressures on RTE segment are unlikely to abate
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- Figure 16: Forecast of UK retail value sales of RTE cereals, 2014-24
- Volume growth continues for hot cereals
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- Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of hot cereals, at current and constant prices, 2014-24
- Further price decline expected
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- Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail value sales of hot cereals, 2014-24
Market Drivers
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- Breakfast cereals make progress on sugar reduction
- Spotlight remains on sugar
- PHE ramps up pressure for sugar reduction
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- Figure 19: PHE’s baseline measurements and reduction targets for breakfast cereals and average sugar content in breakfast cereal launches, 2015-19,
- Breakfast cereals attract negative headlines
- Portion size images are criticised
- Use of cartoon characters remains controversial
- Breakfast cereals in limelight in “ultra-processed” food scare
- ‘One You’ campaign recommends 400-calorie breakfasts
- The benefits of fibre hit the headlines
- Breakfast habits evolve
- Ageing population should support at-home breakfasts
- Trends in younger age groups pose challenges
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- Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Rising prices prop up value sales for leading brands
- Quaker Oat So Simple retains lead in hot cereals
- L/N/R sugar claims rise
- Nestlé and Kellogg’s ramp up convenience
- Above-the-line adspend declines
- Power and energy messages take centre stage on health front
- Quaker and Weetabix lead on trust, quality and health perceptions
Market Share
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- Rising prices prop up value sales for brands
- Kellogg’s Krave defies sugar concerns and bucks category trend
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
- Quaker Oat So Simple retains lead in hot cereals
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- Figure 22: Leading brands sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- L/N/R sugar claims rise
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- Figure 23: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market featuring L/N/R sugar claims, 2015-19
- Kellogg’s expands W.K. Kellogg no added sugar range
- Quaker and Lizi’s launch reduced-sugar kids’ cereals
- Spoon Granola achieves low-sugar formulation
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- Figure 24: Examples of UK breakfast cereal launches making a L/N/R sugar claim, 2019
- Kellogg’s rolls out “contemporary” pack design…
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- Figure 25: Examples of Kellogg’s breakfast cereal packaging refresh, 2019
- …and brings out new products
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- Figure 26: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
- Nestlé ramps up convenience with Box Bowls
- Shropshire Granola offers On The Go convenience for kids
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- Figure 27: Examples of UK breakfast cereal launches in convenient packaging, 2019
- Oat Cheerios target the porridge-averse, Quaker adds flavours
- Danone accelerator brand AYEM launches
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Above-the-line adspend declines
- Dorset Cereals launches digital-first campaign
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- Figure 28: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by segment, 2015-19
- Kellogg’s reinforces position as biggest advertiser
- Coco Pops showcases sugar reduction
- Crunchy Nut continues humorous “irresistible” theme
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- Figure 29: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top five advertisers (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
- Power and energy messages take centre stage on health front
- Special K continues ‘Powering you’ campaign, Weetabix Protein advert returns
- W.K. Kellogg push ‘Be a Force of Nature’ message
- Quaker champions health benefits in ‘I Owe It to Oats’ campaign
- Nestlé Cereals support portfolio with spotlight on wholegrains
- Customisation remains a theme
- Brands focus on children and families
- Nestlé partners with PHE to encourage healthy swaps
- Jordan’s link with Netmums for Grin-ola
- The Honey Monster returns to TV with new look
- Ready Brek looks to heat up Brits in first TV advert in five year
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 30: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, July 2019
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 31: Key metrics for selected brands, July 2019
- Brand attitudes: Weetabix and Quaker are ahead on trust and quality
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- Figure 32: Attitudes, by brand, July 2019
- Brand personality: Kellogg's Crunchy Nut and Krave are seen as most fun
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- Figure 33: Brand personality – macro image, July 2019
- Weetabix and Quaker have the strongest health image
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- Figure 34: Brand personality – micro image, July 2019
- Brand analysis
- Quaker has strongest association with natural and traditional
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- Figure 35: User profile of Quaker, July 2019
- Weetabix sets the bar high with strong positive image
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- Figure 36: User profile of Weetabix, July 2019
- Kellogg’s Crunchy Nut has a lead on being fun and delicious
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- Figure 37: User profile of Kellogg’s Crunchy Nut, July 2019
- Kellogg’s Krave is widely seen as fun and indulgent, but loses out on healthiness
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- Figure 38: User profile of Kellogg’s Krave, July 2019
- Dorset Cereals enjoys a lead as ethical, special and exclusive
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- Figure 39: User profile of Dorset Cereals, July 2019
- Nestlé Shredded Wheat struggles to stand out from competition
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- Figure 40: User profile of Nestlé Shredded Wheat, July 2019
- Ready Brek has an image as comforting and a family brand
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- Figure 41: User profile of Ready Brek, July 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nine in 10 eat breakfast cereals
- RTE cereals feature at least most days for half of users
- Weekday breakfasts are key occasion
- High levels of interest in functional benefits
- Green packaging initiatives resonate
- High level of openness towards reduced-sugar recipes
- Healthy characteristics make sweet cereals permissible
Types of Breakfast Cereals Eaten
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- Nine in 10 eat breakfast cereals
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- Figure 42: Types of breakfast cereals eaten, May 2019
- Flakes are most popular breakfast cereal
- Porridge oats are eaten by 43% of Brits
- Large packet is most common porridge oat format
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- Figure 43: Porridge/oats formats eaten, May 2019
- Plain cereals have a lead in usage
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- Figure 44: Variants of breakfast cereals eaten, May 2019
Frequency of Eating Breakfast Cereals
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- RTE cereals feature at least most days for half of users
- Porridge usage is less frequent
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- Figure 45: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, May 2019
When Breakfast Cereals are Eaten
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- Weekday breakfasts are key occasion
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- Figure 46: When breakfast cereals are eaten, May 2019
- 16-34s are most likely to eat breakfast cereals outside breakfast
Interest in Functional Benefits in Breakfast Cereals
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- High levels of interest in functional benefits
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- Figure 47: Functional benefits consumers would ideally like from a breakfast cereal, May 2019
- Energy delivery is essential for category
- Energy references are established in cereals
- Energy boost claims likely to fall foul of ASA
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- Figure 48: Use of energy claims by breakfast cereal launches, 2018 and 2019
- Gut health messages resonate in the category
- Leading brands are spotlighting digestive support…
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- Figure 49: Kellogg’s Bran Flakes repack spotlighting gut health support, 2019
- …but start-ups go the extra mile to champion gut health
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- Figure 50: Breakfast cereal brands with digestive health claim, 2018 and 2019
- “Good” bacteria attracts interest in category
- Support of brain function appeals widely
- Adaptogens and nootropics are attracting buzz
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- Figure 51: Brain health claim and adaptogens in breakfast cereal launches, 2018 and 2019
Breakfast Cereal Enticements
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- Green packaging initiatives resonate
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- Figure 52: Interest in breakfast cereal concepts, May 2019
- Raise awareness of existing recyclability
- Smaller brands have cut the plastic
- Waitrose trials refills for cereals
- Loop goes online to deliver on zero-packaging ambitions
- British ingredients appeal widely
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- Figure 53: Examples of on-pack British sourcing references in breakfast cereal launches, 2018 and 2019
- British additions and flavours are a missed opportunity for the category
- Unconventional ingredients and bases pique interest of Millennials
- Nuts, legumes and psyllium are grain alterative to explore
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- Figure 54: Examples of vegetable additions and unconventional bases in breakfast cereal launches, 2018 and 2019
Breakfast Cereal Behaviours
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- High level of openness towards reduced-sugar recipes
- REWE invites shoppers to choose recipe
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- Figure 55: REWE Deine Wahl Triple Chocolate Crispy Muesli, Germany 2019
- Figure 56: Behaviours relating to breakfast cereals, May 2019
- Social media favourites prepared by three in 10
- Signposting suitability can foster interest, smoothie bowl shortcuts garner interest
- OL is breathing down the neck of brands
Attitudes towards Breakfast Cereals
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- Healthy characteristics make sweet cereals permissible
- Going beyond ‘plus’ to functional claims is needed to drive standout
- Proliferation of healthy characteristics creates consumer uncertainty
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, May 2019
- Unrefined sugar enjoys a health halo
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 58: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
- Figure 59: UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- RTE cereals
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- Figure 60: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of RTE cereals, 2014-24
- Figure 61: UK retail value sales of RTE cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
- Figure 62: UK retail volume sales of RTE cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
- Hot cereals
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- Figure 63: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of hot cereals, 2014-24
- Figure 64: UK retail value sales of hot cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
- Figure 65: UK retail volume sales of hot cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 66: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
- Figure 67: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 68: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by sub-category, 2015-19
- Figure 69: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 15 claims (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
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- Figure 70: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market making functional claims, 2015-19
- Figure 71: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals, by top 10 flavour components (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
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