Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Spoonable yogurt declines 6.8% from 2015 – 2017
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2015-17
- Newer yogurt segments and flavors have a lower perception of health
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- Figure 2: Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
- Purchase often based on habitual preferences
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- Figure 3: Purchase/consumption behaviors, May 2017
- Added sugars remain a concern
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- Figure 4: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
- The opportunities
- Yogurt drinks and kefir expected to continue strong growth and drive the category
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Innovative textures and flavors can expand the market
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- Figure 6: Purchase/consumption behaviors, May 2017
- Consumers still seek protein first, also yogurts with probiotics and low sugar
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- Figure 7: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, May 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Overall sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks are expected to decline in 2017
- Momentum of yogurt drinks and kefir will eventually begin to wane
- Spoonable dairy takes a hit
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales are expected to slightly decrease by 2.5% in 2017
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Yogurt drinks/kefir steals share from spoonable
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, market share by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Yogurt drinks growth continues, spoonable yogurt stabilizes
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Supermarkets and other channels see similar sales patterns
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- Figure 13: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, 2012-17
- Category sees growth in natural channel
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- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 5/24/15-5/21/17
Market Perspective
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- High-protein’ products increase yogurt competition, especially Greek
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- Figure 15: Seeking In Better-For-You Foods, June 2016
- Diverse breakfast palates and behaviors support millennial engagement
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- Figure 16: Behavior changes, by Millennials and non-Millennials, May 2016
- Increased snacking positions category at advantage
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- Figure 17: Perceptions of yogurt types, may 2017
Market Factors
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- FDA delays nutrition label update
- Millennials are becoming parents
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- Figure 18: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
- The iGeneration emerges as a key consumer group
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- Figure 19: Population by generation, 2012-22
- Obesity rates continue to rise among adults
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- Figure 20: Prevalence of obesity among adults aged 20 and over: US 1997-2015
- Changing face of health
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- Figure 21: Self-perceptions, by respondents with a positive outlook on life, October 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Group Danone dominates, widens the gap
- General Mills struggles tied to Yoplait, stalled innovation
- Chobani rallied by drink offerings
Company and Brand Sales of Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Category leader Group Danone gains through drinks, acquisition
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- Figure 22: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2016 and 2017
- Figure 23: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, market share 2017
- Chobani approaches General Mills as Yoplait sees sharp decline
- Smaller brands see big success
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Chobani gains with entry in drink segment, expands with product extensions
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, market share change by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Small brands, private label get the jump on established brands in drinks
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Yogurt drinks and kefir gain traction
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- International yogurts attract consumers seeking authenticity and texture
- Mixable yogurts add excitement to a slowing Greek yogurt category
- Dessert flavors elicit interest and excitement in the category
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- Figure 28: Consumer perception of sweet flavored yogurts vs total category, Jul 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Dairy spoonable yogurts take a hit
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- Figure 29: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, change in market share by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 24, 2015 – May 21, 2017
What’s Next?
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- Non-dairy yogurt can appeal to consumers outside of dietary restrictive reasons
- Full-fat yogurts moving forward at full force
- Citrus flavors add pizzazz to traditional fruit options
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- Figure 30: Yogurt new product or new variety/range extension launch, by flavor and percent of total, 2013-16
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Young adults have a wider yogurt portfolio
- Yogurt moves beyond breakfast
- Spoonable yogurt is seen as more nutritious than yogurt drinks
- Most yogurt consumers are habitual purchasers, one third open to new yogurt options
- Claims of low fat and low sugar may not drive purchase
- Consumers’ ideal yogurt contains fruit and protein
Yogurt/Yogurt Drink Purchase
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- Greek, fruit flavored yogurts are most common types purchased
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- Figure 31: Yogurt Purchase, May 2017
- Younger adults branch into new varieties of yogurt
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- Figure 32: Yogurt purchase, by age, May 2017
- Yogurt drink and kefir consumers purchase more yogurt overall
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- Figure 33: Yogurt purchase, by yogurt purchase, May 2017
- Hispanic millennials are a strong target for yogurt and yogurt drinks
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- Figure 34: Yogurt purchase, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
Yogurt Perceptions
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- Beyond Breakfast
- Yogurt expands beyond the breakfast occasion
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- Figure 35: Perceptions, May 2017
- Younger consumers use decadent flavored yogurts as a “healthier” dessert option
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- Figure 36: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
- Flavor innovation has men eating more yogurt
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- Figure 37: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by age and gender, May 2017
- Multicultural consumers see nutritious aspects of dessert flavored yogurts
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- Figure 38: Yogurt perceptions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
- Health perception
- Spoonable yogurts are thought to be better for you than yogurt drinks
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- Figure 39: Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
- Traditional, spoonable types still hold the health halo
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- Figure 40: Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
- Consumers think spoonable Greek yogurt is more nutritious than drinkable
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- Figure 41: Yogurt perceptions of spoonable Greek and drinkable Greek yogurts, May 2017
- More than a quarter of 18-34-year-olds see non-dairy yogurt as nutritious
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- Figure 42: Yogurt perceptions, non-dairy yogurt, by age and gender, May 2017
- Multicultural consumers see nutritional perks of yogurt drinks
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- Figure 43: Yogurt perceptions, yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
- Good for kids
- Parents see nutritional value and multiple usage occasions for yogurt drinks
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- Figure 44: Yogurt perceptions, yogurt drinks, May 2017, by demographics
- Fathers also perceive drinkable Greek yogurt as good for kids
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- Figure 45: Yogurt perceptions, good for kids, by gender and parental status, May 2017
- On-the-go
- Ease of consuming on-the-go is unique to yogurt drinks
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- Figure 46: yogurt drinks and kefir products, by unit pack size, Jan 2014-June 2017
- 18-24-year-olds realize the portable benefit of yogurt drinks
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- Figure 47: Yogurt perceptions, convenience by age, May 2017
- Parents with 3+ children appreciate the convenience of yogurt drinks
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- Figure 48: Yogurt perceptions, yogurt drinks, by number of children, May 2017
- Correspondence analysis
- Methodology
- Newer yogurt segments and flavors have identity issue
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- Figure 49: Correspondence analysis – Yogurt perceptions, May 2017
Yogurt Behaviors
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- Motivations
- Nutritional attributes and aided digestion drive yogurt consumption
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- Figure 50: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2017
- Younger consumers turn to yogurt for weight loss
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- Figure 51: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
- Urban consumers find a variety of uses for yogurt
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- Figure 52: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by living area, May 2017
- More than a quarter of Hispanic consumers use yogurt as an ingredient
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
- Habits
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- Figure 54: Purchase/consumption behaviors, May 2017
- Men are less habitual yogurt shoppers
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- Figure 55: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by gender, May 2017
- While somewhat overwhelming, the number of yogurts available does not hinder urban consumption
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- Figure 56: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by living area, May 2017
- Asians are mixing up their flavor choices
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- Figure 57: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2017
Yogurt Attitudes
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- Fat
- Majority of consumers do not claim to prefer low-fat varieties
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- Figure 58: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2017
- Low-fat preference increases in importance with age
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- Figure 59: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
- Sugar
- Nearly one third of consumers seek yogurt with low sugar
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- Figure 60: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2017
- Older consumers care about amount of sugar, not kind
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
- Women seek out low-fat and low-sugar yogurts; men prefer natural and organic
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- Figure 62: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by gender, May 2017
- Ingredients
- Nearly one third of 18-24-year-olds choose yogurt based on texture
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- Figure 63: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, May 2017
- Most consumers aren’t looking for organic yogurts
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- Figure 64: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, Seek organic, by gender and age, May 2017
- Hispanics want natural and organic ingredients
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- Figure 65: Purchase/consumption behaviors, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
Ideal Yogurt
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- Yogurt type
- Fruit flavored and Greek yogurts top the list for ideal types
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- Figure 66: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt type, May 2017
- An increased repertoire makes it hard to play favorites
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- Figure 67: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation - Yogurt type, by repertoire of yogurt purchase, May 2017
- One in five moms desire dessert flavored yogurts
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- Figure 68: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt type, by gender and parental status, May 2017
- Asians seek plain/unflavored yogurts
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- Figure 69: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, yogurt type, by race, May 2017
- Attributes
- Protein is the most desired yogurt attribute
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- Figure 70: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, May 2017
- Low sugar and probiotics appeal to older yogurt consumers
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- Figure 71: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, by age, May 2017
- Rural consumers want yogurt to help aid digestion and provide vitamins and minerals
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- Figure 72: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, by living area, May 2017
- Black consumers want added vitamins and minerals in yogurt
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- Figure 73: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, Yogurt attributes, by race, May 2017
- Ingredients
- Fruit mixed in is preferred over sweet or savory mix-ins
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- Figure 74: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, May 2017
- Younger men seek indulgence and texture
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- Figure 75: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, by age and gender, May 2017
- As kids get older, parents’ preferences change
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- Figure 76: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, by age of children, May 2017
- Sweet ingredients appeal to Hispanic yogurt consumers
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- Figure 77: Ideal yogurt/yogurt drink creation, ingredients, by Hispanic origin, May 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 78: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 79: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt drinks and kefir, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 81: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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- Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks and kefir, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks and kefir, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 86: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
- Figure 87: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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- Figure 88: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 89: US sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks/kefir through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 90: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2016 and 2017
- Figure 91: MULO sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 92: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 93: Food and health attitudes, July 2016-March 2017
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