Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Modest growth is less positive than it appears
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- Figure 1: Retail sales in November and December, both in dollars and as a share of total annual retail sales, 2003-13
- Market drivers
- The economy isn’t everything
- Smaller households point to a long-term concern
- The consumer
- Christmas inspires the most spending, particularly by families with kids
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- Figure 2: Holiday/seasonal purchases, June 2014
- 2014 spending plans roughly in line with 2013
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- Figure 3: General attitudes, June 2014
- Children are primary gift recipients
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- Figure 4: Who gifts are purchased for, June 2014
- The web has yet to take over
- Smaller households are much harder to engage
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- Figure 5: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by household size, June 2014
- Rewarding the loyal can pay dividends
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- Figure 6: Improvements to holiday shopping, June 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- As larger traditional families fade, will winter holidays follow?
- The issues
- The implications
- How can the industry move beyond price competition?
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Who are the Joneses?
- Trend: Experience is All
- Trend: Secret, Secret
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Recession, seasonal factors drive sales trends
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales in November and December at current prices, 2005-13
- Figure 8: Retail sales in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2003-13
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Confident consumers spend more
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- Figure 9: Average Annual Consumer Sentiment Index, 2003-13
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- Figure 10: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, Thanksgiving, New Year’s, by employment, June 2014
- Shorter seasons curtail shopping binges
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- Figure 11: Length of the holiday shopping season, 2003-13
- Cold temperatures, cold sales registers
- More people equals more spending
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- Figure 12: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years, by household size, June 2014
- Figure 13: Percent of total households, by number of people in household, 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- eBay: The future of shopping?
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- Figure 14: eBay Shoppable Storefront
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- Figure 15: Milly promotion - eBay CFDA Collective
- Best Buy: If you can’t beat ‘em…
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- Figure 16: Best Buy “Your Ultimate Showroom” ad
- Manischewitz: You gotta have a gimmick
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- Figure 17: Manischewitz Thanksgivukah eCard, 2013
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Theme: Demystify Thanksgiving
- Whole Foods Market
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- Figure 18: Whole Foods, Holiday Cheat Sheet site, 2013
- Theme: Moving up Black Friday
- Theme: Creating your own traditions
- Target
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- Figure 19: Target, My Kind of Holiday, 2013
- Theme: Give unto others
- Patagonia
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- Figure 20: Patagonia, Worn Wear, 2013
- Theme: Surprise and delight
- Westjet
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- Figure 21: WestJet, Christmas Miracle, 2013
Purchase Trends by Holiday
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- Key points
- Christmas leads in holiday spending
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- Figure 22: Holiday/seasonal purchases, June 2014
- Thanksgiving: A time for families to celebrate over dinner
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- Figure 23: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 24: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by household income, June 2014
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- Figure 25: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by household size, June 2014
- Christmas: A time when everyone celebrates
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- Figure 26: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 27: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by household income, June 2014
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- Figure 28: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by household size, June 2014
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- Figure 29: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by parents with children in household, June 2014
- Figure 30: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- New Year’s: A time to socialize
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- Figure 31: Holiday/seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by gender and age, June 2014
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- Figure 32: Holiday/seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by household income, June 2014
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- Figure 33: Holiday/seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by household size, June 2014
Intent to Purchase
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- Key points
- Clothing, gift cards, food and toys most popular
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- Figure 34: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, June 2014
- Women bigger shoppers than men
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- Figure 35: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by gender, June 2014
- Older respondents focus on food
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- Figure 36: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by age, June 2014
- Upper-middle income consumers most likely to buy
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- Figure 37: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by household income, June 2014
- Big spenders look to buy clothes, electronics, jewelry
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- Figure 38: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
Attitudes toward Holiday Shopping
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- Key points
- Most plan few changes for 2014
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- Figure 39: General attitudes, by gender, June 2014
- Younger respondents’ gift-giving plans grow
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- Figure 40: General attitudes, by age, June 2014
- High-earners plan to spend around the same
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- Figure 41: General attitudes, by household income, June 2014
- Bigger households to spend more, start sooner
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- Figure 42: General attitudes, by household size, June 2014
- Young children lead to planned spending growth
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- Figure 43: General attitudes, by parents with children in household, June 2014
- Growing families rely on the web
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by gender and age, June 2014
- Middle-income households most likely to use online research
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by household income, June 2014
- Self-gifting big-ticket items higher with big households
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by household size, June 2014
- Offline a better approach for reaching the unemployed
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- Figure 47: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by employment, June 2014
- Those spending more will also self-gift
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
Who Gifts are Purchased For
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- Key points
- Christmas leads in holiday spending
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- Figure 49: Who gifts are purchased for, by gender and age, June 2014
- Are gifts for significant others a luxury?
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- Figure 50: Who gifts are purchased for, by household income, June 2014
- Bigger households buy more for almost everyone
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- Figure 51: Who gifts are purchased for, by household size, June 2014
Retailers Shopped for Holiday Items
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- Key points
- Mass merchandisers come out on top for holiday shopping
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- Figure 52: Retailers shopped for holiday items, June 2014
- Women more likely to shop online, large families to shop everywhere
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- Figure 53: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by gender and age, June 2014
- Most affluent prime shoppers at department stores
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- Figure 54: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by household income, June 2014
- Bigger households buy from more places
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- Figure 55: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by household size, June 2014
- Fewer respondents plan to shop at mass merchandisers in 2014
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- Figure 56: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by gender and age, June 2014
- Affluent consumers cooling on mass merchandisers
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- Figure 57: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by household income, June 2014
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- Figure 58: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by household size, June 2014
Shopping Behavior and Preferences
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- Key points
- Younger respondents and larger households most likely to be interested in promotions and big-ticket gifts
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- Figure 59: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by gender, June 2014
- Social media is a good way to engage younger shoppers
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- Figure 60: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by age, June 2014
- Affluent respondents still like deals
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- Figure 61: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by household income, June 2014
- Many opportunities to reach out to large households
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- Figure 62: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by household size, June 2014
- Parents respond well to promotions
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- Figure 63: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by parents with children in household, June 2014
Improvements to Holiday Shopping
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- Key points
- Free shipping, free gifts with purchase most popular enhancements
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- Figure 64: Improvements to holiday shopping, by gender and age, June 2014
- Affluent respondents not likely to pay for convenience
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- Figure 65: Improvements to holiday shopping, by household income, June 2014
- Loyalty programs good fit for big households
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- Figure 66: Improvements to holiday shopping, by household size, June 2014
- Parents of young children want to avoid hassle
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- Figure 67: Improvements to holiday shopping, by parents with children in household, June 2014
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Asians, Hispanics lead in many kinds of holiday spending
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- Figure 68: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Asians less engaged with Christmas
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- Figure 69: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Hispanics very likely to plan parties for New Year’s
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- Figure 70: Holiday/seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Black respondents interested in personal care for 2014
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- Figure 71: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Black respondents more likely to self-gift
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- Figure 72: General attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Black, Asian respondents use online research
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- White respondents most likely to buy gifts for close family
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- Figure 74: Who gifts are purchased for, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Black, Asian respondents an opportunity for office supply
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- Figure 75: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Blacks, Hispanics more value-conscious
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- Figure 76: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- White respondents respond well to free shipping
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- Figure 77: Improvements to holiday shopping, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Consumer Segmentation
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- Entertainers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Abstainers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Master-Celebrators
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 78: Target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 79: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 80: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Christmas, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 81: Holiday/seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 82: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 83: Who gifts are purchased for, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 84: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by target clusters, June 2014
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- Figure 85: Improvements to holiday shopping, by target clusters, June 2014
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 86: Target clusters, by demographics, June 2014
- Cluster methodology
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday
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- Figure 87: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 88: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 89: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by parents with children in household, June 2014
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- Figure 90: Holiday/seasonal purchases – Thanksgiving/Black Friday, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Christmas
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- Figure 91: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Christmas, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 92: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Christmas, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 93: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – Christmas, by generations, June 2014
- Holiday/Seasonal purchases – New Year’s
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- Figure 94: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 95: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 96: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by parents with children in household, June 2014
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- Figure 97: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 98: Holiday/Seasonal purchases – New Year’s, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Planned purchases
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- Figure 99: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by household size, June 2014
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- Figure 100: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 101: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 102: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 103: Planned purchases for 2014 holiday season, by parents with children in household, June 2014
- General attitudes on holiday shopping
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- Figure 104: General attitudes, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 105: General attitudes, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 106: General attitudes, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 107: General attitudes, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Attitudes toward big-ticket items
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- Figure 108: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 109: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 110: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, by parents with children in household, June 2014
- Who gifts are purchased for
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- Figure 111: Who gifts are purchased for, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 112: Who gifts are purchased for, by parents with children in household, June 2014
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- Figure 113: Who gifts are purchased for, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 114: Who gifts are purchased for, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 115: Who gifts are purchased for, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Retailers shopped during 2013 holidays
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- Figure 116: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 117: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 118: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 119: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by parents with children in household, June 2014
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- Figure 120: Retailers shopped for 2013 holidays, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays
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- Figure 121: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 122: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 123: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by parents with children in household, June 2014
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- Figure 124: Retailers plan to shop for 2014 holidays, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Shopping behavior and preferences
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- Figure 125: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 126: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 127: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 128: Shopping behaviors and preferences, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
- Improvements to holiday shopping
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- Figure 129: Improvements to holiday shopping, by marital/relationship status, June 2014
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- Figure 130: Improvements to holiday shopping, by employment, June 2014
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- Figure 131: Improvements to holiday shopping, by generations, June 2014
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- Figure 132: Improvements to holiday shopping, by general attitudes towards – Compared to last year, I plan to, June 2014
Appendix – Trade Associations
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