Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Consumers are visiting FSRs less often
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- Figure 1: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, October 2016
- Falling retail prices are hurting FSR sales
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- Figure 2: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, October 2016
- Deals may not be the ideal solution
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- Figure 3: FSR visitation motivators, October 2016
- The opportunities
- The FSR market is still growing
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- Figure 4: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
- Loyalty programs can drive FSR visitation
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- Figure 5: Ideal FSR loyalty program, October 2016
- A casual fine dining experience strips the segment of its exclusivity
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- Figure 6: FSR statement agreement, October 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Despite challenges, the FSR market is growing
- FSRs face competition from all sides
- Falling retail prices are a major concern
Market Size and Forecast
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- FSRs experience steady revenue growth
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- Figure 7: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- FSRs slowly lose market share
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- Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2016-21
Market Perspective
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- QSRs double down on value/convenience
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- Figure 10: Reasons for visiting a QSR, February 2016
- New fast casuals pose a major threat to FSRs
- Grocerants redefine the dining and shopping experience
- Meal kits: a passing trend or serious competitor?
Market Factors
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- Gap between AH and AFH prices grows
- Follow the money
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- Figure 11: Median household income, by age of householder, 2015
- Figure 12: Median household net worth, by age of householder, 2013
- Consumer sentiment is up; will consumers dine out more?
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- Figure 13: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007 – November 2016
- Figure 14: Dining out predicted changes in behavior, September 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Major midscales carry on while the rest of the segment falls behind
- Casual dining searches for answers
- Fine dining doesn’t take itself too seriously
Midscale Restaurants
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- What’s working?
- Midscales get an upgrade
- Midscales get real
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- Figure 15: Midscale visitation motivators, June 2016
- The big three midscales keep up with the competition
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- Figure 16: Restaurant visitation in the past 30 days, 2012-16
- What’s struggling?
- Midscales faltering
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- Figure 17: Restaurant visitation in the past 30 days, 2012-16
- What’s next?
- Seniors and kids
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- Figure 18: Midscale visitation motivators: senior menus, June 2016
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- Figure 19: Midscale visitation motivators: kids menus, June 2016
- Midscales to watch
Casual Dining Restaurants
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- What’s working?
- A side of entertainment
- Latin cocktails spice up menus
- What’s struggling?
- Mainstream casual dining fights for its future
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- Figure 20: Restaurant visitation in the past 30 days, 2012-16
- A race to the bottom?
- What’s next?
- Diner – server model shifts
- Food halls provide a culinary tour
- Delivery: casual dining salvation or Band-Aid?
- Casual dining chains to watch
Fine Dining Restaurants
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- What’s working?
- Keeping it casual
- What’s struggling?
- Seafood, salad, and soup falling out of fashion
- What’s next?
- Light my fire
- Veggies galore
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Fewer consumers are visiting FSRs
- Have restaurants hit “peak Millennial”?
- Consumers place quality over deals
- Loyalty programs offers hope for struggling brands
- Interest in a more casual fine dining experience is high
Behavior Changes – FSR Visitation
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- Behavior changes are concerning for FSRs
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- Figure 21: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, October 2016
- Female diners are dining out less
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- Figure 22: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by gender, October 2016
- FSRs need to focus on non-Millennials
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- Figure 23: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by generation, October 2016
- Only the affluent are dining out more
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- Figure 24: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by HH income, October 2016
- Parents are dining out more often but are looking for deals
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- Figure 25: Behavior changes – FSR visitation, visiting more or less, by parents and number of children, October 2016
Behavior Changes at FSRs
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- Consumers are looking for deals when they dine out
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- Figure 26: Behavior changes at FSRs, October 2016
- Men are outspending women at FSRs
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- Figure 27: Behavior changes at FSRs, more and less, by gender, October 2016
- Millennial experimentation may be hurting same-store traffic
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- Figure 28: Behavior changes at FSRs, more and less, by generation, October 2016
Reasons for Visiting FSRs Less
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- Price, not experience deters FSR visitation
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- Figure 29: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, October 2016
- Women are visiting all restaurants less often
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- Figure 30: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, by gender, October 2016
- LSRs are attracting younger consumers
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- Figure 31: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, by age, October 2016
- Middle and lower income consumers are dropping out of the market
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- Figure 32: Reasons for visiting FSRs less compared to one year ago, by HH incomes, October 2016
FSR Occasion Prices
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- Price expectation varies by occasion
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- Figure 33: FSR price expectation, median price, October 2016
- Demographic price expectation
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- Figure 34: FSR price expectation, median price, by gender and by generation, October 2016
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- Figure 35: FSR price expectation, median price, by Hispanic origin, HH income, and by parental status, October 2016
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- Figure 36: price expectation, median price, by census region and by area, October 2016
FSR Chain Visitors – Demographic Profiles
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- Methodology
- Applebee’s
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- Figure 37: General demographic statistics, Applebee’s Customers
- Figure 38: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Applebee’s Customers
- Buffalo Wild Wings
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- Figure 39: General demographic statistics, Buffalo Wild Wings Customers
- Figure 40: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Buffalo Wild Wings Customers
- Cheesecake Factory
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- Figure 41: General demographic statistics, Cheesecake Factory Customers
- Figure 42: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Cheesecake Factory Customers
- Chili’s
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- Figure 43: General demographic statistics, Chili’s customers
- Figure 44: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Chili’s customers
- Cracker Barrel
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- Figure 45: General demographic statistics, Cracker Barrel customers
- Figure 46: Demographic Breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Cracker Barrel customers
- Denny’s
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- Figure 47: General demographic statistics, Denny’s customers
- Figure 48: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Denny’s customers
- IHOP
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- Figure 49: General demographic statistics, IHOP customers
- Figure 50: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, IHOP customers
- Olive Garden
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- Figure 51: General demographic statistics, Olive Garden customers
- Figure 52: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Olive Garden customers
- Outback Steakhouse
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- Figure 53: General demographic statistics, Outback Steakhouse customers
- Figure 54: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Outback Steakhouse customers
- P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
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- Figure 55: General demographic statistics, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro customers
- Figure 56: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro customers
- Red Lobster
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- Figure 57: General demographic statistics, Red Lobster customers
- Figure 58: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Red Lobster customers
- Red Robin
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- Figure 59: General demographic statistics, Red Robin customers
- Figure 60: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, Red Robin customers
- T.G.I. Friday’s
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- Figure 61: General demographic statistics, T.G.I. Friday’s Customers
- Figure 62: Demographic breakdown, index against FSR visitors, T.G.I. Friday’s Customers
FSR Visitation Motivators
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- Food comes first
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- Figure 63: FSR visitation motivators, October 2016
- Location/dishes motivate female diners
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- Figure 64: FSR visitation motivators, by gender, October 2016
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- Figure 65: FSR visitation motivators, by gender and age, October 2016
- iGens consider service, Boomers want variety
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- Figure 66: FSR visitation motivators, by generation, October 2016
- Urbanites care about tertiary factors
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- Figure 67: FSR visitation motivators, by area, October 2016
- Consumers that dine out “less” consider food quality
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- Figure 68: FSR visitation motivators, by FSR changes in behavior, October 2016
Ideal FSR Loyalty Program
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- Consumers prefer a spend-based loyalty program
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- Figure 69: Ideal FSR loyalty program, October 2016
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- Figure 70: Ideal FSR loyalty program, among those who would be interested in joining a FSR loyalty program, October 2016
- Ideal loyalty program by demographics
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- Figure 71: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by gender, generation, October 2016
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- Figure 72: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by Hispanic origin, HH income, parental status, October 2016
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- Figure 73: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by region, area, October 2016
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- Figure 74: Ideal FSR loyalty program, by FSR changes in behavior, October 2016
Ideal FSR Loyalty Program Rewards
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- Show them the money
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- Figure 75: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, October 2016
- Hispanics express interest in delivery rewards
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- Figure 76: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by Hispanic origin, October 2016
- Urbanites drive interest in unique rewards
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- Figure 77: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by area, October 2016
- 55+ consumers want special occasion rewards
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- Figure 78: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by age, October 2016
- Consumers visiting FSRs less want monetary rewards
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- Figure 79: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, by FSR changes in behavior, October 2016
FSR Attitudes
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- Fine dining for the masses
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- Figure 80: FSR statement agreement, October 2016
- Making meals a “special occasion” for female consumers
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- Figure 81: FSR statement agreement, by gender, October 2016
- Affluent retirees may be an untapped market
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- Figure 82: FSR statement agreement, by age, October 2016
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- Figure 83: FSR statement agreement, by age + income and employment status, October 2016
- Who are the deal chasers?
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- Figure 84: FSR statement agreement, “visiting a FSR is only worth it if I can get a deal,” index against all respondents, October 2016
CHAID Analysis
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- Methodology
- Opportunity for better sports bars
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- Figure 85: FSR statement agreement, October 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 86: Total US revenues and forecast for full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 87: Household income distribution, 2015
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Appendix – Loyal Reward Cross-Interest
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- Figure 88: Ideal FSR loyalty program rewards, cross interest, October 2016
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