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Restaurant Breakfast and Brunch Trends - US - September 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Key takeaways
The issues
Breakfast continues to decline in importance
Figure 1: Meal statements – Any agree, 2014 and 2018
Americans are dining out less often for breakfast and brunch
Figure 2: Breakfast and brunch visitation, April 2018 and July 2019
Retail remains restaurant breakfast’s biggest competitor
Figure 3: Purchase by menu item type and location, July 2019
The opportunities
Coffee brings in breakfast customers
Figure 4: Breakfast and brunch statement agreement, by parental status and gender, July 2019
Consumers are looking for variety
Figure 5: TURF Analysis – Breakfast/brunch menu item interest, July 2019
Hispanics are key breakfast and brunch diners
Figure 6: Breakfast and brunch statement agreement, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Retails takes a cue from foodservice
Breakfast is losing its importance
Gen Z and Millennial generations are increasingly diverse and important to breakfast and brunch growth
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Retail remains consumers’ top breakfast and brunch purchase location
Figure 7: Breakfast and brunch purchase, by location
Retail brands take inspiration from foodservice
Figure 8: Foodservice-inspired retail options
Figure 9: Devour brand Double Sausage & Bacon Loaded Tots
Figure 10: Mush Coconut Cold Brew Overnight Oats
Figure 11: Kodiak Cakes Cinnamon & Maple Flapjack Cup
MARKET FACTORS 
Breakfast falls in importance
Figure 12: Meal statements, 2014 and 2018
Hispanics, Asians are key breakfast and brunch customers
Figure 13: Percentage of population, by Hispanic origin, 2014-24
Figure 14: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2014-24
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Global flavors proliferate on breakfast and brunch menus
McDonald’s shrinks its all-day breakfast menu
Protein options expand to include more plant-based and seafood ingredients
Emerging family dining chains find success
WHAT’S WORKING?
Global influence on the menu
Figure 15: Breakfast and brunch menu incidence growth, by menu item cuisine type, Q2 2016-Q2 2019
Coffee options grow beyond the coffee shop
Figure 16: Change in incidence of coffee drinks on menus, by segment, Q2 2016-Q2 2019
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
McDonald’s rolls back its all-day breakfast menu offerings
Legacy family dining chains left in the dust by regional emerging brands
WHAT’S NEXT?
Breakfast operators cater to diners’ interest in plant-based options
Seafood spices up breakfast and brunch menus
Figure 17: Menu incidence growth of select seafood ingredients on breakfast and brunch menus, Q2 2016-Q2 2019
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Breakfast and brunch visitation is in decline
Gen Z and Millennials as well as parents, Hispanic and Asian consumers are key to category growth
Health is important to morning diners
Parents prioritize coffee and convenience
BREAKFAST AND BRUNCH VISITATION 
Most have dined out for breakfast or brunch but visitation trails lunch and dinner
Figure 18: Breakfast and brunch visitation, July 2019
Figure 19: Breakfast and brunch visitation, April 2018 and July 2019
Younger generations are key breakfast and brunch diners
Figure 20: Breakfast and brunch visitation, by generation, July 2019
Almost two thirds of dads dine out for breakfast and brunch
Figure 21: Breakfast and brunch visitation, by parental status and gender, July 2019
Breakfast and brunch is popular for Hispanic and Asian diners
Figure 22: Breakfast and brunch visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2019
BREAKFAST AND BRUNCH VISITATION BY LOCATION 
QSR visitation high for breakfast, while FSR visitation is high for brunch
Figure 23: Breakfast and brunch visitation, by location and occasion, July 2019
Two thirds of Gen Zers have visited a QSR for breakfast
Figure 24: Breakfast and brunch visitation by location – NET – Any breakfast/brunch occasion, by generation, July 2019
Hispanics are key full service chain customers
Figure 25: Breakfast and brunch visitation by location – NET – Any breakfast/brunch occasion, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
BREAKFAST AND BRUNCH MENU ITEM INTEREST
Diners want more seasonal fresh fruit on menus
Figure 26: Breakfast and brunch menu item interest, July 2019
Parents overindex for coffee options
Figure 27: Breakfast and brunch menu item interest, July 2019
Menu innovation appeals to younger generations
Figure 28: Breakfast and brunch menu item interest, by generation, July 2019
Variety is important to consumers
Figure 29: TURF Analysis – Breakfast/brunch menu item interest, July 2019
BREAKFAST AND BRUNCH MENU ITEM DESIRED ATTRIBUTES 
Health is top priority
Figure 30: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired attributes, July 2019
Healthful dishes may attract more female consumers
Figure 31: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired attributes, by gender, July 2019
Millennials desire vegetarian and vegan options
Figure 32: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired attributes, by generation, July 2019
Younger generations are more interested in all-day breakfast
Figure 33: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired attributes, by generation, July 2019
Dads want on-the-go options
Figure 34: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired attributes, by parental status and gender, July 2019
BREAKFAST AND BRUNCH MENU ITEM DESIRED HEALTHY ATTRIBUTES
Protein is important to healthy diners
Figure 35: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired healthy attributes, July 2019
Fast casual diners seek a wide range of natural ingredients
Figure 36: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired healthy attributes, by restaurant segment, July 2019
Diners do not want to trade off protein content in plant-based dishes
Figure 37: Breakfast and brunch menu item desired healthy attributes, by breakfast and brunch menu item interest, July 2019
BREAKFAST AND BRUNCH STATEMENT AGREEMENT 
Breakfast and brunch is almost one third of diners’ favorite meal
Figure 38: Breakfast and brunch statement agreement, July 2019
Younger generations skip breakfast and snack more
Figure 39: Breakfast and brunch statement agreement, by generation, July 2019
Parents prioritize coffee quality
Figure 40: Breakfast and brunch statement agreement, by parental status and gender, July 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Mintel Menu Insights
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 41: Households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
Figure 42: Table – TURF Analysis – Breakfast/brunch menu item interest, July 2019
Methodology

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