Fruit - US - August 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Key Takeaways
The issues
Loose fresh fruit dominates consumption
Figure 1: Fruit consumption, May 2019
Perceptions low among non-loose fresh fruit
Figure 2: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Fruit type associations, May 2019
Brands struggle to stand out among private label in non-fresh segments
Figure 3: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Expanding consumption into meal times
Figure 4: Reasons for increased consumption, May 2019
Younger consumers are strong targets for trial, loyalty
Figure 5: Change in fruit consumption, by age, May 2019
Increasing non-parent consumption
Figure 6: Repertoire of fruit consumption, by parental status, May 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Growth of fruit sales slows
Fresh segment increasingly holds the largest market share
Declining number of households with children could prove problematic
Center-of-store struggles hurting non-fresh segments
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Fruit sales growth slows
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Fresh fuels category performance, at the expense of other segments
Center-of-store struggles impact other category segments
Canned/jarred fruit falls deeper into existing losses
Frozen slides into a downward slope
Dried fruit sees small, steady gains
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Made-to-order and RTD smoothies can challenge (or inspire) fruit sales
Figure 11: Made-to-order smoothie purchase – Net – Any location, February 2017 and January 2019
Vegetable sales outpace fruit as the war against sugar stays strong
Figure 12: Health attributes sought, May 2018
Center-of-store growth remains minimal
Figure 13: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store at current prices; total US retail sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store products, % of total sale, 2012-2020
MARKET FACTORS 
Declining number of households with children give fruit fewer mouths to feed
Figure 14: US households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
Snack revolution favors fruit consumption
Figure 15: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Private label dominates share and growth
Brands struggle
Snack occasion drives innovation
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FRUIT
Sun-Maid a bright spot amid big brand losses
Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Private label chipping away at brand sales
Figure 18: Fruit introductions in the US, private label versus branded, 2014-2018
Dole and Del Monte leverage holistic wellness amid declining sales
Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by market share percent change, rolling 52 weeks of 2018 and 2019
WHAT’S WORKING?
Exotic fruits give an old category new tricks
Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing frozen brands – Sambazon, Pitaya Plus, The Jackfruit Company, rolling 52 weeks 2018
Fruit chips 2.0
Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing dried brands – Dang, Crispy Fruit, Chifles, Sun-Maid, rolling 52 weeks 2018
Smoothie packs remove guesswork
Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing frozen brands – Dole, Thrive!, Great Value, rolling 52 weeks 2018
Cleaner positioning, claims can revive shelf stable
Figure 23: Percentage of shelf canned/jarred fruit products with claims, percent change 2017-2018
Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing canned/jarred brands – Del Monte, Dole rolling 52 weeks 2018
Farm to Freezer
Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select growing frozen brands – Seal the Seasons, Michigan Farm to Freezer, Wyman’s of Maine rolling 52 weeks 2018
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Innovation overload?
Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select declining canned/jarred brands – Del Monte, Dole rolling 52 weeks 2018
Basic frozen fruit products easily overshadowed by private label options
Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of fruit, by select declining frozen brands – Dole rolling 52 weeks 2018
WHAT’S NEXT?
Removing blenders from the smoothie experience
Sustainability an answer to differentiation and expansion?
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Loose fresh is the fruit of choice
Not all fruit is created equally
Snacking is the occasion of choice
Age is the strongest differentiator in consumer perception
FRUIT CONSUMPTION 
Most consumers opt for loose fresh fruit
Figure 28: Fruit consumption, May 2019
Women are ripe for engagement
Figure 29: Fruit consumption, by gender, May 2019
Parents more deeply engaged in the category
Figure 30: Fruit consumption, by parental status, May 2019
Figure 31: Repertoire of fruit consumption, by parental status, May 2019
More children means wider engagement
Figure 32: Fruit consumption, by household size, May 2019
Consumers age out of non-fresh fruit
Figure 33: Fruit consumption, by age, May 2019
CHANGE IN FRUIT CONSUMPTION
The majority of consumers holding steady or increasing fruit consumption
Figure 34: Change in fruit consumption, May 2019
Younger adults are more likely to change their consumption
Figure 35: Change in fruit consumption, May 2019
REASONS FOR INCREASED CONSUMPTION
BFY snacking boosts fruit consumption
Figure 36: Reasons for increased consumption, May 2019
Dried is the fruit of choice for consumers, replacing other snacks with fruit
Figure 37: Reasons for increased consumption – Replacing other snacks with fruit, by fruit format, May 2019
Frozen fruit is recipe-ready, needs to break away from smoothies
Figure 38: Reasons for increased consumption – Using fruit as an ingredient in recipes, by fruit format, May 2019
Brands need to meet non-parents at meal times
Figure 39: Reasons for increased consumption, by parental status, May 2019
Consumers over 55 most likely to replace snacks with fruit
Figure 40: Reasons for increased consumption – Replacing other snacks with fruit, by age, May 2019
FRUIT PURCHASE FACTORS
Everything is second to freshness
Figure 41: Fruit purchase factors, May 2019
Freshness and flavor most important to older consumers
Figure 42: Fruit purchase factors – Freshness and flavor, by age, May 2019
Figure 43: Fruit purchase factors, pre-washed and pre-cut, by age, May 2019
FRUIT ASSOCIATIONS
The further away from loose/fresh, the worse the perceptions
Dried fruit ekes out some positive perceptions
Frozen segment struggles with taste and nutrition
Figure 44: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Fruit format associations, May 2019
Figure 45: Fruit format associations, May 2019
Versatility an opportunity for growth
Figure 46: Fruit type associations – Versatile, May 2019
Dried fruit has low kid-friendly perception
Figure 47: Fruit format associations – Dried fruit, by parental status, May 2019
Fruit cups can’t shake the unhealthy rap
Figure 48: Fruit format associations – Snack friendly, May 2019
FRUIT BEHAVIORS
Moving past the snack occasion
Figure 49: Fruit behaviors, May 2019
Snacking motivations differ by age
Figure 50: Snack motivations, by age, November 2018
Consumers aged 35-44 seek out functional fruit
Figure 51: Fruit behaviors, by age and parental status, May 2019
18-24 year olds struggle the most to consume enough fruit
Figure 52: Fruit behaviors – I struggle to eat the daily recommended amount of fruit, by age, May 2019
FRUIT ATTITUDES
Some skepticism remains in fruit segments
Figure 53: Fruit attitudes, May 2019
Younger consumers need guidance in the benefits of frozen
Figure 54: Fruit attitudes – Frozen fruit provides as much nutrition as fresh, by age, May 2019
Older consumers most concerned about pre-cut fruit
Figure 55: Fruit attitudes, pre-cut attitudes, by age, May 2019
Households with more children more aware of food waste
Figure 56: Fruit attitudes – Non-fresh fruit helps reduce food waste, by number of children in household under 18, May 2019
Households with 3+ children are a bright spot for ugly produce programs
Figure 57: Fruit attitudes, interest in ugly produce programs, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Correspondence analysis methodology
Repertoire methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 58: Total US retail sales of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 67: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 68: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Figure 69: US supermarket sales of fruit, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 70: US sales of fruit through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of canned/jarred fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019