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Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks - US - August 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Yogurt and yogurt drink sales increase by 46% from 2009-14, slowed growth projected
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Leading companies
Greek yogurt continues to dominate, but brands look to differentiate in 2015
Figure 2: MULO sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Segment performance
Strong growth in yogurt drives gains in category
Figure 3: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks (and percentage change) ($ millions), by segment, at current prices, 2009-14
The consumer
25-34s appear as key consumer group
Figure 4: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by age, June 2014
Category appears more as a health option than a treat
Figure 5: Reasons for consumption (top five), June 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Should the category focus on health or indulgence?
Issue
Insight: Yogurt and yogurt drinks let health-conscious consumers have their (strawberry cheese)cake (flavor) and eat it too
What follows Greek?
Issue
Insight: Greek will stick around, but new options will appeal to a primed consumer base
How strong is the demand for non-dairy offerings?
Issue
Insight: Non-dairy presents an attention-getting option for those looking for health and flavor variety
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: The Real Thing
Trend: Transumers
Trend: Non-Standard Society
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Continued growth projected, but at a slower pace
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2009-19
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Strong growth in yogurt drives growth in category
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Yogurt sales grow by 51% from 2009-14
US retail sales of yogurt
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Spotlight on Greek yogurt
Figure 12: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree (Greek), by yogurt consumption frequency, June 2014
US retail sales of Greek yogurt brands within the yogurt segment
Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of Greek yogurt brands within the yogurt segment at current prices, 2009-19
Sales of yogurt drink sales are sluggish
US retail sales of yogurt drinks
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Yogurt drink launch activity trails behind, slows
Figure 16: Yogurt and yogurt drinks launches, by subcategory, 2010-14*
Full fat sales grow in natural channel
Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and kefir, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 2012-14
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets represent two thirds of category sales
Figure 18: US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2012-14
Limited-availability offerings allow retailers to corner the market
Retailers attempt to shine in the spotlight of brand stances
Store brands represent less than a quarter of launches
Figure 19: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by private label, 2010-14*
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND ANALYSIS
Key points
Greek yogurt continues to dominate, but brands look to differentiate in 2015
Figure 20: Fage, “Bobby Flay Crafts a Greek Inspired Meal,” TV Ad, 2014
MULO sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks
Figure 2: MULO sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Greek continues to dominate the yogurt segment as manufacturers differentiate
Figure 21: Dannon Oikos, “The Spill,” TV Ad, 2014
Figure 22: Dannon Light & Fit Greek, “Ice Cream in the Park,” TV Ad, 2014
MULO sales of yogurt
Figure 23: MULO sales of yogurt at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Chobani’s household penetration grows, Dannon Oikos makes gains across key measures
Figure 24: Key purchase measures for the top yogurt brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Figure 25: Danimals, “Danimals Power Up Your Adventure Sweeps,” TV Ad, 2014
Figure 26: Stonyfield, “Pure Fruit,” YouTube Video, 2013
MULO sales of yogurt drinks
Figure 27: MULO sales of Yogurt Drinks at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
Key measures remain constant
Figure 28: Key purchase measures for the top yogurt brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
New varieties surpass new product launches in 2014
Figure 29: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by launch type, 2010-14*
Tubs rule, but consumers are open to pouches
Figure 30: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by top package type, 2010-14*
Figure 31: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree (packaging), by yogurt consumption frequency, June 2014
Could bigger be better?
Figure 32: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
Room exists for flavor innovation
Figure 33: Yogurt and yogurt drinks launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-14*
Beverage-inspired offerings make for a refreshing approach
Tropical flavors keep fruit flavors exciting, may appeal to Hispanics/Asians
…as might ethnic-inspired offerings
Seasonal flavors mimic confectionery to create limited-time indulgence
Will consumers be sweet on savory yogurt?
Hormone-free, allergen claims see strong growth
Ingredients get “real”
Figure 34: Yogurt and yogurt drinks launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14*
Greek opens the doors for other styles
YOGURT AND YOGURT DRINK CONSUMPTION
Key points
More than two thirds of consumers eat products in the category
Non-dairy provides outlet for flavor variety, health boost
Women more likely to use yogurt and yogurt drinks
Figure 35: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by gender, June 2014
Men use yogurt drinks with greater frequency
Figure 36: Consumption frequency – Yogurt drink, by gender, June 2014
25-34s appear as key consumer group
Figure 37: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by age, June 2014
Figure 38: Consumption frequency – Yogurt, by age, June 2014
Figure 39: Repertoire, by age, June 2014
Figure 40: Consumption frequency – Yogurt, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 41: Consumption frequency – Yogurt drink, by gender and age, June 2014
More than a third of yogurt drink consumers do so every day
Figure 42: Consumption frequency – Yogurt drink, by age, June 2014
Yogurt may be perceived as expensive by some
Figure 43: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by household income, June 2014
Fruit options popular among non-dairy buyers
Figure 44: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
Figure 45: Consumption frequency – Yogurt, by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
CONSUMPTION OCCASION
Key points
Meal, mid-afternoon snack positioning should resonate
Expanded formats allow for expanded eating occasions
Yogurt on the side
Yogurt for dessert
Figure 46: Consumption occasion, by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
Opportunity exists for premium breakfast yogurt
Figure 47: Consumption occasion, by household income, June 2014
Morning positioning is a good start for high-frequency eaters
Figure 48: Consumption occasion, by consumption frequency, June 2014
REASONS FOR CONSUMPTION
Key points
Category appears more as health option than treat
Digestion claims may allow products to appear specialized
A quarter of category participants seek protein
Women prioritize health/calcium, men attracted to energy boost
Figure 49: Reasons for consumption, by gender, June 2014
Older consumers like health benefits, 18-24s want on-the-go
Figure 50: Reasons for consumption, by age, June 2014
Younger consumers much more likely to see these products as indulgent
Figure 51: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by gender and age, June 2014
Category is a treat to lower earners, functional for higher earners
Figure 52: Reasons for consumption, by household income, June 2014
Yogurt drinks lead for energy boost
Figure 53: Reasons for consumption, by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
Dairy-free does not present a limitation
Figure 54: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
More than a quarter of daily yogurt users do so for weight loss
Figure 55: Reasons for consumption, by yogurt, June 2014
Indulgence important among frequent eaters
Figure 56: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by yogurt, June 2014
PURCHASE DECISION
Key points
Flavor rules among yogurt and yogurt drink buyers
Figure 57: Purchase decision, by age, June 2014
Low fat/low sodium important to older shoppers
Figure 58: Purchase decision (health-related), by age, June 2014
Younger consumers are a strong target for sugar alternatives
Figure 59: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by gender and age, June 2014
Whole milk may represent one of those added health benefits
New styles may appeal to high-income earners
Figure 60: Purchase decision, by household income, June 2014
Branded mix-ins take a base product and make it healthy or fun
Non-dairy users significantly more interested in premium/indulgence
Figure 61: Purchase decision, by personal consumption by segment, June 2014
…and are less price conscious than other shoppers
Figure 62: Purchase decision, by purchase by segment, June 2014
Figure 63: Purchase decision, by purchase by segment, June 2014 (continued)
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
More than three quarters of Hispanics buy products in the category
Vegetable flavors may appeal to Asian parents
Figure 64: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
More than half of Hispanic yogurt eaters do so at least once a day
Figure 65: Consumption frequency – Yogurt, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Boosting non-diary positioning may grow sales among Hispanics
Figure 66: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
High-earning Hispanics least concerned about price
Figure 67: Purchase decision, by Hispanic origin and household income, June 2014
…more interested in added health
Figure 68: Purchase decision (health-related), by Hispanic origin and household income, June 2014
…may be a good target for alternative sweeteners
Figure 69: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Treat positioning may resonate with high earning Hispanics
Figure 70: Reasons for consumption, by Hispanic origin and household income, June 2014
Figure 71: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUP – HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN
Key points
Close to 90% of households with children purchase products in the category
Figure 72: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, by presence of children in household, June 2014
…and are more likely to eat products in the category
Figure 73: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by presence of children in household, June 2014
Figure 74: Consumption frequency – Yogurt, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Figure 75: Consumption frequency – Yogurt drink, by presence of children in household, June 2014
6-11 year-olds appear as target age group
Kefir for kids
Figure 76: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, June 2014
Figure 77: Yogurt, November 2012-December 2013
Connecting with dads will be important to growing sales
Figure 78: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, by parents with children in household, June 2014
Households with children are less price conscious
Figure 79: Purchase decision, by presence of children in household, June 2014
It’s Greek to parents
Figure 80: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree (Greek), by presence of children in household, June 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL TABLES
Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase
Figure 81: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 82: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase (for self), by region, June 2014
Figure 83: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, by purchase by segment, June 2014
Figure 84: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, by purchase by segment, June 2014 (continued)
Purchase decision
Figure 85: Purchase decision, by gender and age, June 2014
Purchase decision (health-related)
Figure 86: Purchase decision (health-related), by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 87: Purchase decision (health-related), by household income, June 2014
Reasons for consumption
Figure 88: Reasons for consumption, by gender and age, June 2014
Reasons for consumption
Figure 89: Consumption occasion, by gender and age, June 2014
Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks
Figure 90: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks, June 2014
Figure 91: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by gender and age, June 2014
Figure 92: Attitudes toward yogurt and yogurt drinks by any agree, by household income, June 2014
APPENDIX – INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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