Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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Fragrances - US - August 2014
Scope and Themes
 
What you need to know 
The $3.7 billion fragrance category posted steady gains after the recession, but has been on the decline since 2012, with sales expected to struggle through 2019. Waning consumer interest, a struggling mass market, and competition from scented personal care products are all hindering category growth. Looking ahead, fragrance brands will be challenged to innovate around new formats, new benefits, and improved retailing in order to curb sales declines.

Definition 
This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Fragrances – US, September 2013, as well as the September 2012 and September 2011 report of the same title, as well as Women’s Fragrances – US, September 2010 and the September 2008, December 2007, November 2006, and October 2004 reports of the same title, and Men’s Fragrances – US, November 2010 and the October 2008, November 2007, December 2006, and November 2004 reports of the same title.

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has segmented the fragrance market as follows:

●	Men’s fragrances – cologne, body spray
●	Women’s fragrances – perfume, body spray

For the consumer portions of this report fine fragrances are defined as more traditional, higher-priced items that have limited functionality beyond scent and include perfume, cologne, travel-sized fragrance, and other formats (such as solids). Line extension items (which are not included in sales data) refer to scented personal care items such as lotions, soap/shower gel, powder, and aftershave.

Note: Perfume is used as a general description to include all fine fragrance formats such as parfum, eau de parfum, and eau de toilette. In addition, while body sprays are not traditionally thought of as fine fragrance, their popularity in the market has led to their inclusion in the market size.

Excluded from the scope of this report are line extensions of other men’s/women’s personal care products such as:

●	Deodorants or antiperspirants
●	Shaving products such as shaving creams, shaving gels, preshave for electric razors
●	Hair gels or other styling products
●	Shampoos or conditioners.

Value figures throughout this report are at retail selling prices (rsp) excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated.

Data sources
Sales data
●	Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance are total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; trade publications 
●	Retail Channels are based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; US Census Bureau, Economic Census; except supermarket and drugstore sales, which are based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews.

Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through GMI to explore consumer usage of and attitudes toward fragrances. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in May 2014 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.

Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the Internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings. Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.

Mintel has also analyzed data from Experian Marketing Services, using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study) and the Simmons NHCS (National Hispanic Consumer Study).

The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during November 2012-Decmeber 2013 and the results are based on the sample of 23,689 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. 

While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses for race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.

Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
The following is a list of abbreviations used in this report: 

CPI | Consumer Price Index
EC | European Commission
EPA | Environmental Protection Agency
GNPD | Global New Products Database
NACS | National Association of Convenience Stores
NHCS | National Consumer Study /National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services)
rsp | Retail selling price
SOV | Share of voice

Generations, if discussed within this report, are defined as: 

World War II | The generation born in 1932 or before. In 2014, members of this generation are aged 82 or older.
Swing Generation | The generation born between 1933 and 1945. In 2014, members of the Swing Generation are between the ages of 69 and 81.
Baby Boomers | The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 50 and 68.
Generation X | The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2014, Generation Xers are between the ages of 38 and 49.
Millennials* | The generation born between 1977 and 1994. In 2014, Millennials are between the ages of 20 and 37.
iGeneration | The generation born between 1995 and 2007. In 2014, iGen are between the ages of 7 and 19.
Emerging generation | The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2014 members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are younger than 7.

* also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers

In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows: 

CPI

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer's dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. 

The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars.

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition.

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