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Yellow Fats and Edible Oils - UK - September 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Definitions of yellow fats
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, by value, 2007-17
Volume sales far outpaced by value sales
Figure 2: Growth in UK retail value and volume sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, by segment, 2009-11
Butter
Spreads
Cooking and baking spreads
Edible oils
Forecast
Market factors
Lacklustre demand for healthy eating products stimulates innovation
Bargain-seeking mentality remains high among frugal shoppers
Growth in two key age groups bodes well for yellow fats and oils
Companies, brands and innovation
Market share
Figure 3: Estimated brand shares in the butter and spreads* market, 2011
Innovation
Adspend
The consumer
Trends in usage
Purchase of butter and spreads
Figure 4: Purchase of yellow fats, by type, May 2012
Important factors influencing choice of butter/spreads
Figure 5: Factors affecting choice of yellow fats, May 2012
Figure 6: Factors that would affect choice of yellow fats, May 2012
Attitudes towards butter and spreads
Figure 7: Attitudes towards yellow fats, May 2012
Attitudes towards edible oils
Figure 8: Attitudes towards edible oils, May 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can health and wellbeing spreads improve consumer perceptions?
How can brands explore ease of use for standout?
Is there potential for brands to build engagement online?
What attributes can yellow fat brands highlight to target under-25s more effectively?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Minimise Me
Trend: Sense of the Intense
2015 Trend: Brand Intervention
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Small steps towards healthy eating
Figure 9: Household purchased quantities of yellow fat by type, 2006-10
Figure 10: Household purchased quantities of vegetable oils, 2006-10
Butter and edible oil users tend to be cooking enthusiasts
Figure 11: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements by usage of butter, low fat spreads, dairy spreads and soft margarine, and oils for cooking and salad, 2011
Household incomes remain under pressure
Figure 12: Percentage year-on-year change in average weekly earnings compared to inflation in the UK, January 2006-December 2011
Figure 13: Mintel tracker survey, Agreement with statements on grocery shopping habits, March-June 2012
Figure 14: Retail prices index of butter and oil and fats, January 2007-April 2012
Figure 15: Trends and projections in the UK population (‘000s), by age group, 2007-17
Figure 16: Trends and projections in UK households, by size, 2007-17
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Spreads lead dynamic new product launch activity in 2011
Figure 17: NPD in yellow fats and edible oils, using trends in total dairy as a comparison, 2007-12
Own-label grows its presence
Figure 18: NPD in yellow fats and edible oils, by product category, by brand vs own-label, 2011
Figure 19: NPD in edible oils, branded vs own-label, 2007-12
Trends in new product claims
Figure 20: Top 5 product claims in NPD in yellow fats and edible oils, by sector, 2011
Health is the leading new product claim
‘Value’ claims target hard-pressed consumers and cooks
Smaller pack sizes help keep costs under control
Premium and organic claims feature mainly in edible oils
Recyclable packs have become more prevalent since 2010
Niche NPD continues in flavoured oils/spreads
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Butter, spreads and edible oils
Figure 21: UK retail value and volume sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, 2007-12
Volume growth continues to be a stumbling block for butter and spreads
Figure 22: Growth in UK retail value and volume sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, by segment, 2009-11
Forecast
Figure 23: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, by value, 2007-17
Figure 24: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter, spreads and edible oils, by volume, 2007-17
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
Butter
Figure 25: UK retail value and volume sales of butter*, 2007-17
Figure 26: UK retail value sales of butter, by type, 2007-11
Spreads
Figure 27: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, 2007-17
Figure 28: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, by type, 2009-11
Cooking and baking
Figure 29: UK retail value and volume sales of cooking and baking spreads*, 2007-17
Edible oils
Figure 30: UK retail value and volume forecast of edible oils*, 2007-17
Figure 31: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils (liquid), by type, 2009-11
Figure 32: UK retail value sales of edible oils (liquid), by type, 2009-11
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Lurpak extends its lead in butter and spreads
Figure 33: Estimated brand sales and shares in the butter and spreads* market, 2009-11
Edible oils
Figure 34: Estimated brand sales and shares in the standard cooking oil* market, 2009-11
Figure 35: Estimated brand sales and shares in the olive oil market, 2009-11
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Adams Foods
Arla Foods
Dairy Crest
Filippo Berio
Princes Group
Unilever
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Adspend lower than 2011 but remains high
Figure 36: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, 2008-12*
Figure 37: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by segment, 2007-12*
Unilever continues to dominate adspend
Figure 38: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by advertiser, 2009-12*
Figure 39: Leading advertisers’ above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by brand, 2009-12*
Figure 40: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK Yellow fats and edible oils market, by Brand, 2011
Figure 41: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by top ten advertisers, by segment, 2011
Figure 42: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by media, 2008-12*
Brands look online for a lifestyle positioning
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 43: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the yellow fats and edible oils sector, June 2012
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 44: Attitudes by yellow fats and edible oils brand, June 2012
Brand personality
Figure 45: Yellow fats and edible oils brand personality – macro image, June 2012
Figure 46: Yellow fats and edible oils brand personality – micro image, June 2012
Brand experience
Figure 47: Yellow fats and edible oils brand usage, June 2012
Figure 48: Satisfaction with various yellow fats and edible oils brands, June 2012
Figure 49: Consideration of yellow fats and edible oils brands, June 2012
Figure 50: Consumer perceptions of current yellow fats and edible oils brand performance, June 2012
Figure 51: Yellow fats and edible oils brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, June 2012
Brand index
Figure 52: Yellow fats and edible oils brand index, June 2012
Figure 53: Yellow fats and edible oils brand index vs. recommendation, June 2012
Target group analysis
Figure 54: Target groups, June 2012
Figure 55: Yellow fats and edible oils brand usage, by target groups, June 2012
Conformists
Simply the Best
Shelf Stalkers
Habitual Shoppers
Individualists
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Multiples capture the lion’s share of yellow fat and edible oil sales
Figure 56: UK retail value sales of yellow fats, by outlet type, 2009-11
Figure 57: UK retail value sales of edible oils, by outlet type, 2009-11
CONSUMER – TRENDS IN USAGE
Key points
Spreads used most frequently but cooking oil has the largest user base
Figure 58: Usage of oils for cooking and salad, spreads (low fat, dairy and soft margarine) and butter, 2011
Figure 59: Frequency of usage of oils for cooking and salad, spreads (low fat, dairy and soft margarine) and butter, 2011
Butter user levels have plateaued
Figure 60: Trends in frequency of usage of butter, 2009-11
Slightly salted butter dominates, but unsalted butter enjoys biggest increase
Figure 61: Trends in types of butter used, 2009-11
Figure 62: Trends in types of butter used, by age, 2011
Fewer people are using spreads, less often
Figure 63: Trends in frequency of usage of low fat spreads, dairy spreads and soft margarine, 2009-11
Cooking oil usage falls
Figure 64: Trends in frequency of usage of oils for cooking and salad, 2007-11
Figure 65: Trends in types of oils for cooking and salad used, 2007-11
CONSUMER – USAGE OF YELLOW FATS AND EDIBLE OILS
Key points
Purchase of butter and spreads
Figure 66: Purchase of yellow fats by type, May 2012
Figure 67: Purchase of yellow fats by type, by presence of children in the household, % point +/- average, May 2012
Purchase of edible oils
Figure 68: Usage of edible oils by type, May 2012
Extra virgin/virgin olive oil and sunflower oil compete for first place
Figure 69: Purchase of edible oils by type, May 2012
Affluent urban consumers show higher usage of specialist oils
Edible oil users demonstrate larger repertoires
Figure 70: Purchase repertoire based on number of yellow fat types and edible oils used, May 2012
Small households represent a gap in the market for edible oils
CONSUMER – FACTORS AFFECTING CHOICE OF YELLOW FATS
Key points
Important factors influencing choice of butter/spreads
Figure 71: Factors affecting choice of yellow fats, May 2012
Taste is top priority
Healthy attributes interest a large minority
Figure 72: Factors that would affect choice of yellow fats, May 2012
Figure 73: Selected health-related factors affecting choice of yellow fats, by age-group, % point +/- average, May 2012
One in four are open to supporting farmers and their livestock
Youngsters drawn to packaging, older age groups to health
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS YELLOW FATS
Key points
Attitudes towards butter and spreads
Figure 74: Attitudes towards yellow fats, May 2012
Reasons for cutting back on butter/spreads
Health (38%)
Switching products to save money (31%)
Can butter mine a treat image?
Taste/other preferences (28%)
Taste continues to play a key role in yellow fats
Taste is paramount for the majority of yellow fat users
Demand for greater variety of flavours
Health claims face a battle for credibility
Naturally healthier spreads are more appealing than functional benefits
Convenience interests a large minority
Value for money perceptions override convenience of smaller packs
Block butter equals messiness
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS EDIBLE OILS
Key points
Attitudes towards edible oils
Figure 75: Attitudes towards edible oils, May 2012
Nurturing connoisseurship among oil users
Ethical considerations spark minority interest
Calories and cost result in consumers using less oil
Flavour and packaging can add value
Packaging upgrades offer scope to add value
Build on oil’s ability to add flavour
TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Five target groups
Figure 76: Target groups, May 2012
Moderates (17%)
Disengaged (29%)
Healthy Wealthy (19%)
British Butter Buffs (17%)
Easily Enthused (18%)
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 77: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
Figure 78: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by usage of butter, 2011
Figure 79: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by usage of low fat spreads, dairy spreads and soft margarine, 2011
Figure 80: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by usage of oils for cooking and salad, 2011
Figure 81: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
Figure 82: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
APPENDIX – WHO’S INNOVATING?
Figure 83: NPD in yellow fats as % of total dairy launches, 2007-12
Figure 84: NPD in yellow fats and edible oils, by top 10 product claims, 2007-12*
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Yellow fats and edible oils
Figure 85: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of yellow fats and edible oils, by value, 2012-17
Figure 86: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of yellow fats and edible oils, by volume, 2012-17
Butter
Figure 87: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter*, by value, 2007-17
Figure 88: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of butter*, by value, 2012-17
Figure 89: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter*, by volume, 2007-17
Figure 90: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of butter*, by volume, 2012-17
Spreads
Figure 91: Forecast of UK retail sales of spreads, by value, 2007-17
Figure 92: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of spreads, by value, 2012-17
Figure 93: Forecast of UK retail sales of spreads, by volume, 2007-17
Figure 94: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of spreads, by volume, 2012-17
Cooking and baking spreads
Figure 95: Forecast of UK retail sales of cooking and baking spreads*, by value, 2007-17
Figure 96: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of cooking and baking spreads*, by value, 2012-17
Figure 97: Forecast of UK retail sales of cooking and baking spreads*, by volume, 2007-17
Figure 98: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of cooking and baking spreads*, by volume, 2012-17
Edible oils
Figure 99: Forecast of UK retail sales of edible oils*, by value, 2007-17
Figure 100: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of edible oils*, by value, 2012-17
Figure 101: Forecast of UK retail sales of edible oils*, by volume, 2007-17
Figure 102: Best- and worst-case forecasts of UK retail sales of edible oils*, by volume, 2012-17
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 103: Brand usage, June 2012
Figure 104: Brand commitment, June 2012
Figure 105: Brand momentum, June 2012
Figure 106: Brand diversity, June 2012
Figure 107: Brand satisfaction, June 2012
Figure 108: Brand recommendation, June 2012
Figure 109: Brand attitude, June 2012
Figure 110: Brand image – macro image, June 2012
Figure 111: Brand image – micro image, June 2012
Figure 112: Profile of target groups, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 113: Psychographic segmentation by target group, June 2012
Figure 114: Brand usage, by target group, June 2012
Brand index
Figure 115: Brand index, June 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TRENDS IN USAGE
Figure 116: Frequency of usage of butter, by demographics, 2011
Figure 117: Frequency of usage of low fat spreads, dairy spreads and soft margarine, by demographics, 2011
Figure 118: Frequency of usage of oils for cooking and salad, by demographics, 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – USAGE OF YELLOW FATS AND EDIBLE OILS
Figure 119: Most popular yellow fats bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 120: Next most popular yellow fats bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 121: Other yellow fats bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 122: Edible oils bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 123: Standard oils bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 124: Specialist oils bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 125: Solid oils/fats bought by type, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 126: Non-buyers of edible oils in the last six months, by demographics, May 2012
Repertoire analysis
Figure 127: Repertoire on number of yellow fat types bought, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 128: Repertoire on number of edible oils types used, by demographics, May 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – FACTORS AFFECTING CHOICE OF YELLOW FATS
Figure 129: Most popular factors affecting choice of yellow fats, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 130: Next most popular factors affecting choice of yellow fats, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 131: Factors that would affect choice of yellow fats, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 132: Factors that would affect choice of yellow fats, by type of yellow fat bought, May 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS YELLOW FATS
Figure 133: Attitudes towards yellow fats, May 2012
Figure 134: Agreement with the statements ‘I think butter wrapped in paper/foil is messy’ and ‘I would like to see smaller packs of butter/spreads’, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 135: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer naturally healthier spreads to those with added functional benefits’ and ‘I would like to see more flavoured butter/spreads for cooking’, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 136: Agreement with the statements ‘I trust spreads that claim to be better for you’ and ‘I’d rather use less butter/spread than a healthier one that tastes bland’, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 137: Agreement with the statements ‘I’m trying to cut back on how much butter/spreads I use for health reasons’ and ‘I use spreads over butter to save money’, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 138: Agreement with the statements ‘I use butter/spreads to bring out the flavour when cooking’ and ‘I use other spreads because they taste better’, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 139: Agreement with the statement ‘Butter is indulgent’, by demographics, May 2012
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS EDIBLE OILS
Figure 140: Most popular attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 141: Next most popular attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 142: Other attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, May 2012
APPENDIX – TARGET GROUPS
Figure 143: Target groups, by demographics, May 2012
Figure 144: Usage of yellow fats by type by target groups, May 2012
Figure 145: Usage of edible oils by type by target groups, May 2012
Figure 146: Factors that affect choice of yellow fats, by target groups, May 2012
Figure 147: Factors that would affect choice of yellow fats, by target groups, May 2012
Figure 148: Attitudes towards yellow fats, by target groups, May 2012
Figure 149: Agreement with the lifestyle statements on health, by target groups, May 2012
Figure 150: Statements on cooking and eating habits, by target groups, May 2012

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