Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- The issues
- Consumers are drinking less alcohol
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- Figure 1: Alcohol consumption, September 2019
- Desire for customization and sugar reduction challenge RTDs
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- Figure 2: Consumption barriers, September 2019
- RTDs underperform other alcohol types on quality
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- Figure 3: Perception of flavored alcoholic beverages verses wine and spirits, January 2017-November 3, 2019
- The opportunities
- RTDs have solid retention and still have room for growth, especially among 35-44s
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- Figure 4: Interest in RTD alcoholic beverages: “I have not tried and am interested in trying,” September 2019
- Preference for drinking at home benefits RTDs; on prem is a growth opp
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- Figure 5: beverage consumption in the past three months, by location, July 2019
- Hard seltzers appeal similarly to men and women
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- Figure 6: Share of RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, by gender, September 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- FMB sales continue to climb
- Prepared spirits-based cocktails post gains, wine coolers could follow
- One in five drinkers has reduced alcohol consumption in the past year
- RTDs pose the most direct challenge to beer
- Preference for drinking at home benefits RTDs; on prem is a growth opp
Market Size and Forecast
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- FMBs continue to climb
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- Figure 7: Total US volume sales and forecast of flavored malt beverages, 2014-22
- Figure 8: Total US volume sales and forecast of flavored malt beverages, 2014-22
- Prepared spirits-based cocktails climb out of slump
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- Figure 9: Total US volume sales and forecast of spirits-based prepared cocktails, 2014-22
- Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of spirits-based prepared cocktails, 2014-22
- Wine cooler sales small and shrinking; it doesn’t have to be this way
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- Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine coolers, 2014-22
- Figure 12: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine coolers, 2014-22
- Growth segments innovate with new products
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- Figure 13: RTD alcoholic beverages, by launch type, 2017-19*
Market Breakdown
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- Preference for drinking at home benefits RTDs; on prem is a growth opp
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- Figure 14: beverage consumption in the past three months, by location, July 2019
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- Figure 15: RTD alcoholic beverages purchase location, September 2019
- Room for on-premise branding exists
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- Figure 16: Opinions toward hard seltzer - vessel, by hard seltzer consumption, September 2019
Market Perspective
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- Beer maintains market dominance, spirits sales to overtake wine
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- Figure 17: Share of US sales of alcoholic beverages, by type of alcoholic beverage, 2014-19 (est)
- RTDs post consumption gains while other categories lag
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- Figure 18: Alcohol consumption, September 2019
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- Figure 19: Changes in alcohol consumption, September 2019
- RTDs pose the most direct challenge to beer
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- Figure 20: Bon & Viv Spiked Seltzer – “No Lime Needed,” April 2019
- Figure 21: Alcohol consumption – any frequency, by RTD alcoholic beverage consumption, September 2019
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- Figure 22: Changes in alcohol consumption, by age, September 2019
- Sparkling wine drinkers are strong targets for RTDs
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- Figure 23: RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, by alcohol consumption – any frequency, September 2019
- RTDs outperform other alcohol on flavor, refreshment, and excitement; underperform on natural
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- Figure 24: Perception of flavored alcoholic beverages verses beer, January 2017-November 3, 2019
- Wine losing out on excitement, but outperforming RTDs on quality and value
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- Figure 25: Perception of flavored alcoholic beverages verses wine, January 2017-November 3, 2019
- Figure 26: Perception of flavored alcoholic beverages verses spirits, January 2017-November 3, 2019
Market Factors
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- One in five drinkers has reduced their consumption in the past year
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- Figure 27: Change in alcohol consumption, July 2019
- Flavor is the leading driver of drink choice
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- Figure 28: Alcohol statements – choice – Net: any agree, September 2019
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- Figure 29: Alcohol statements – choice – Net: any agree, by RTD alcoholic beverage consumption (Net*), September 2019
- RTD drinkers are more likely than average to look at drink nutrition
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- Figure 30: Alcohol statements – health – Net: any agree, September 2019
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- Figure 31: Alcohol statements – health – Net: any agree, by RTD alcoholic beverage consumption (Net*), September 2019
- The majority of drinkers are making choices in the moment
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- Figure 32: Alcohol statements – options – Net: any agree, September 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Hard seltzers drive strong MULO gains for FMBs, led by White Claw
- RTDs missing out on low/no sugar claims
- Big guys play catch up
- From seltzer to spritzer
What’s Working
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- Hard seltzers drive strong MULO gains for FMBs, led by White Claw
- Cape Line comes out strong in the premixed cocktail/coolers space
- Small brands see the highest percentage of cocktail/cooler growth during the period
- Tropical flavors continue to lead
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- Figure 33: RTD alcoholic beverages, by leading flavors, 2017-19*
- Cans take the top spot
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- Figure 34: RTD alcoholic beverages, by pack type, 2017-19*
What’s Struggling
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- RTDs missing out on low/no-sugar claims
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- Figure 35: RTD alcoholic beverages, by leading claims, 2017-19*
- Pernod Ricard’s Kahlúa and Malibu lines decline, could retain relevance
What to Watch
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- Big guys play catch up
- Own an occasion to inspire trial
- Get real
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- Figure 36: High Noon Sun Sips – “Things Just Got Real at the Tailgate,” August 2019
- From seltzer to spritzer
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Hard seltzers are driving the increase in RTD consumption
- Hard seltzers appeal similarly to men and women
- RTDs have solid retention and still have room for growth
- Flavor is a strength of hard seltzer, health is a struggle
- Desire for customization and sugar reduction challenge RTDs
RTD Alcoholic Beverage Consumption
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- Hard seltzers are driving the increase in RTD consumption
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- Figure 37: RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, September 2019
- Hard seltzers appeal similarly to men and women
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- Figure 38: Share of RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, by gender, September 2019
- 4 in 10 hard seltzer drinkers are age 25-34
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- Figure 39: Share of RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, by age, September 2019
- Hard seltzers need to diversify their audience
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- Figure 40: Share of RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, by race, September 2019
- Hard seltzers households skew slightly higher earning
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- Figure 41: Share of RTD alcoholic beverage consumption – any frequency, by HH income, September 2019
Interest in RTD Alcoholic Beverages
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- RTDs have solid retention and still have room for growth
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- Figure 42: Interest in flavored malt beverages, September 2019
- Premixed spirits-based cocktails show the strongest interest in trial
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- Figure 43: Interest in premixed spirits-based cocktails, September 2019
- Hard seltzers have the highest retention, struggle the most with trial
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- Figure 44: Interest in hard seltzers, September 2019
- RTD marketers could widen their lens to include slightly older consumers
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- Figure 45: Interest in flavored malt beverages, by age, September 2019
- Figure 46: Interest in premixed spirits-based cocktails, by age, September 2019
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- Figure 47: Interest in hard seltzers, by age, September 2019
Opinions Toward Hard Seltzer
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- Flavor is a strength of hard seltzer, health is a struggle
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- Figure 48: Opinions toward hard seltzer, September 2019
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- Figure 49: Opinions toward hard seltzer, by hard seltzer consumption, September 2019
- A third of women think hard seltzer is more refreshing than beer
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- Figure 50: Opinions toward hard seltzer, by gender, September 2019
- 25-34s have high opinions of hard seltzers
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- Figure 51: Opinions toward hard seltzer, by age, September 2019
Consumption Barriers
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- Desire for customization and sugar reduction challenge RTDs
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- Figure 52: Consumption barriers, September 2019
- The youngest abstainers don’t feel like the drinks represent them
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- Figure 53: Consumption barriers, by age, September 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of premixed cocktails/coolers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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