Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Small upturn in sales of breakfast cereals
- Value sales growth forecast but small dip expected in volume sales
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2013-23
- Decline in RTE cereals halted
- Strong sales performance for hot cereals
- Big focus on sugar reduction
- Breakfast eating habits have big influence
- Growth of over-55s to benefit in-home breakfasts
- Companies and brands
- Own-label gaining ground in RTE cereals
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- Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2017/18**
- PepsiCo retains top position in hot cereals
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- Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value, 2017/18*
- Sugar reduction central to NPD
- W.K. Kellogg hopes to tap into interest in plant-based foods
- Protein launches a continuing theme
- The consumer
- Vast majority of people eat breakfast cereals
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- Figure 4: Usage of different types of breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Plain cereal is the most popular individual type
- Half of users eat cereal most days
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- Figure 5: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Consumers are looking for less sugar in cereals
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- Figure 6: Attributes looked for on packaging when choosing breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Strong interest in on-the-go and snack packs
- Adding variety to cereal through pots of toppings
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- Figure 7: Interest in breakfast cereals products, June 2018
- Cereals are an energy boost or guilt-free treat
- Many people add extra ingredients to breakfast cereal
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- Figure 8: Behaviours and preferences related to breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Breakfast cereals enjoy strong overall perceptions
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- Figure 9: Correspondence Analysis of qualities associated with different types of breakfast cereals, June 2018
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Room to drive cereals as a snack and for out-of-home occasions
- The facts
- The implications
- People’s love of toppings can help keep breakfast cereal interesting
- The facts
- The implications
- Breakfast cereals are in good place to promote nutritional value of products
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Total breakfast cereals sales show small upturn in 2017
- Value sales growth forecast but small dip expected in volume sales
- Small increase in value sales of RTE cereals
- Sugar-related concerns will hold back volume sales
- Hot cereals segment goes from strength to strength
- Sugar reduction a big focus in category
- Eating breakfast out of home works against breakfast cereals
- People skipping breakfast poses a threat to cereals
- Growth of over-55s to benefit in-home breakfasts
- Catering for on-the-go 25-44-year-olds
Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Total breakfast cereals sales show small upturn in 2017
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- Figure 10: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value and volume, 2013-23
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2013-23
- RTE cereals show small increase in value sales in 2017
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- Figure 12: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by value and volume, 2013-23
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of RTE cereals, 2013-23
- Hot cereals segment goes from strength to strength
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- Figure 14: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by value and volume, 2013-23
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of hot cereals, 2013-23
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- Breakfast cereals tasked with 20% sugar reduction by 2020
- PHE sugar reduction targets
- Initiatives from leading players
- Push to cut sugar also coming from consumers
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- Figure 16: Top five factors deemed important when looking for healthy food, November 2017
- PHE puts new focus on calorie consumption
- Eating breakfast out of home works against breakfast cereals
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- Figure 17: Breakfast items typically eaten at home and out of home, May 2018
- People skipping breakfast poses a threat to cereals
- Population trends
- Growth of over-55s to benefit in-home breakfasts
- Catering for on-the-go 25-44-year-olds
- Room for more healthy cereals for children
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- Figure 18: Trends in age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Own-label gains share in RTE cereals
- PepsiCo retains top position in hot cereals
- Sugar reduction central to NPD
- W.K. Kellogg hopes to tap into interest in plant-based foods
- Protein launches a continuing theme
- Expanding choice of flavours
- 10% increase in 2017 advertising spending
- Weetabix stands for quality and good value
- Quaker Oats has strong association with health and wellbeing
- Cheerios and Shreddies seen as fun brands
Market Share
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- Own-label gains share in RTE cereals
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- Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the RTE cereals market, by value and volume, 2016/17 and 2017/18
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- Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value and volume. 2016/17-2017/18
- PepsiCo retains top position in hot cereals
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2017/18
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- Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2017/18
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Sugar reduction central to NPD
- Kellogg’s cuts sugar in 2018
- Nestlé Cereal Partners sets targets for end of 2018
- L/N/R sugar claims leap ahead
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- Figure 23: Examples of breakfast cereal launches making no added sugar claims, 2018
- Low/reduced sugar claims remain rare
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- Figure 24: Examples of breakfast cereal launches making low sugar claims, 2018
- W.K. Kellogg range hopes to tap into interest in plant-based foods
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- Figure 25: Products from the new W.K. Kellogg breakfast cereals range, 2018
- Protein launches are a continuing theme
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- Figure 26: Examples of breakfast cereal launches making high/added protein claims, 2017 and 2018
- Free-from claims increase again in first half of 2018
- Brands continue to dominate free-from launches
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- Figure 27: Examples of breakfast cereal launches making gluten-free claims, 2017 and 2018
- Expanding choice of flavours
- Established brands widen their ranges
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- Figure 28: Examples of new flavours in breakfast cereal launches, 2017 and 2018
- New flavours range from dessert themes to vegetables
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- Figure 29: Examples of new flavours and ingredients in breakfast cereal launches, 2017 and 2018
- Jordans launches Grin-ola - its first kids’ range
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- Figure 30: Examples of children’s breakfast cereal launches, 2017
- Kellogg’s doubling vitamin D in its cereals
- Breakfast drinks competing with cereals
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- Figure 31: Examples of breakfast drink launches, 2017 and 2018
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- 10% increase in 2017 advertising spending
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- Figure 32: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, 2014-18
- Kellogg’s increases advertising
- ‘Perfect bowl’ campaign for Kellogg’s Corn Flakes
- Crunchy Nut focuses on unusual eating situations
- Special K spotlights powering women every day
- Marketing support for new W.K. Kellogg range focuses on ‘plant power’
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- Figure 33: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, 2014-18
- Nestlé reduces spending on Shredded Wheat and Shreddies
- Cheerios promotes nutritious breakfasts for kids
- Shreddies strikes a humorous tone
- Quaker Oats puts biggest focus on Oat So Simple
- Weetabix increases adspend
- ‘Have you had your Weetabix?’ strapline returns
- Alpen puts focus on authentic Alpine roots
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 34: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2018
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 35: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2018
- Brand attitudes: Weetabix and Kellogg’s Corn Flakes the most trusted brands
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- Figure 36: Attitudes, by brand, June 2018
- Brand personality: Cheerios seen as the most fun brand
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- Figure 37: Brand personality – macro image, June 2018
- Kellogg’s Corn Flakes and Quaker Oats deemed most traditional brands
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- Figure 38: Brand personality – micro image, June 2018
- Brand analysis
- Weetabix stands for quality and good value
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- Figure 39: User profile of Weetabix, June 2018
- Quaker Oats has strongest association with health and wellbeing
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- Figure 40: User profile of Quaker Oats, June 2018
- Kellogg’s Corn Flakes is widely seen as a traditional and accessible brand
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- Figure 41: User profile of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, June 2018
- Natural image is a key strength of Jordans
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- Figure 42: User profile of Jordans, June 2018
- Perceptions of being healthy and natural are key strengths for Alpen
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- Figure 43: User profile of Alpen, June 2018
- Cheerios seen most widely as a fun brand
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- Figure 44: User profile of Cheerios, June 2018
- Special K seen widely as caring for health and wellbeing
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- Figure 45: User profile of Special K, June 2018
- Shreddies’ strengths are being a fun, family brand
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- Figure 46: User profile of Shreddies, June 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Vast majority of people eat breakfast cereals
- Plain cereal is most popular individual type
- Half of users eat cereal most days
- Consumers are looking for less sugar in cereals
- Other nutritional benefits also important
- Strong interest in on-the-go and snack packs
- Adding variety to cereal through pots of toppings
- Cereals as an energy boost or guilt-free treat
- Many people add extra ingredients to breakfast cereal
- Breakfast cereals enjoy strong overall perceptions
Usage of Breakfast Cereals
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- Vast majority of people eat breakfast cereals
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- Figure 47: Usage of breakfast cereals, by type, June 2018
- Women more likely to eat porridge/oats than men
- Plain cereal is the most popular individual type
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- Figure 48: Variants of breakfast cereals typically eaten, June 2018
- Convenient formats are well established in porridge/oats
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- Figure 49: Formats of porridge/oats typically eaten, June 2018
Frequency of Eating Breakfast Cereals
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- Half of users eat cereals most days
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- Figure 50: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Porridge/oats eaten less frequently
Attributes Deemed Important for Breakfast Cereals
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- Consumers are looking for less sugar in cereals
- NPD leaps ahead, fuelled by no added sugar claims
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- Figure 51: Attributes looked for on packaging when choosing breakfast cereals, June 2018
- High fibre looked for by four in 10 eaters of cereals
- Other nutritional benefits also important
Interest in Breakfast Cereals Products
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- Strong interest in on-the-go and snack packs
- Interest bodes well for cereals to stay on the menu for out-of-home breakfast
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- Figure 52: Interest in breakfast cereals products, June 2018
- Adding variety to cereal through pots of toppings
- More than a fifth are drawn to toppings
- Scope to better leverage in-store positioning
- Custom-made cereal interests 19%
Behaviour and Preferences
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- Breakfast cereals are seen widely as an energy boost and guilt-free treat
- Low perception of cereals as snacks
- Cereals enjoy a strong treat image
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- Figure 53: Behaviours and preferences related to breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Many people add extras to breakfast cereal
- Need for more excitement for the weekend
- Speed is of the essence for much of the week
Qualities Associated with Breakfast Cereals
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- Breakfast cereals enjoy strong overall perceptions
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- Figure 54: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Muesli seen most widely as source of vitamins and minerals
- Porridge seen as best for keeping you full for longer
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- Figure 55: Qualities associated with different types of breakfast cereals, June 2018
- Methodology
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Figure 56: UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2013-23
- Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2018-23
- Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2018-23
- Figure 59: UK retail volume sales of RTE cereals, 2013-23
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- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of RTE cereals, 2018-23
- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of RTE cereals, 2018-23
- Figure 62: UK retail volume sales of hot cereals, 2013-23
- Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of hot cereals, 2018-23
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- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of hot cereals, 2018-23
- Forecast methodology
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 65: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by claim (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
- Figure 66: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by company (sorted by 2017), 2014-18
- Figure 67: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by branded and private label, 2014-18
- Figure 68: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by sub-category, 2014-18
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