Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Clothes sales to be hit by low growth of 1.8% in 2016
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- Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast for consumer spending on clothing and accessories (incl. VAT), 2011-21
- Specialists’ share of clothing spend declines further
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- Figure 2: Clothing specialists’ estimated share of spending on clothing, 2011-16
- Companies and brands
- Over half of the top players are non-specialists
- Boohoo and Missguided benefit from cutting-edge image
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- Figure 3: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January-August 2016
- The consumer
- M&S sees declining in-store female shoppers
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- Figure 4: Retailers from which clothes are bought both in-store and online, July 2016
- Young men buy clothes most often
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- Figure 5: How often consumers have bought clothes in the last 12 months, July 2016
- Half of women treat themselves to clothes
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- Figure 6: Reasons consumers have bought clothes for themselves in the last 12 months, July 2016
- Growing interest in Made in Britain clothes
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- Figure 7: Agreement with attitudes towards buying clothes, July 2016
- End to seasonal clothes
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- Figure 8: Agreement with attitudes towards shopping for clothes, July 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How has the clothing sector performed in 2016?
- The facts
- The implications
- Who are the winners and losers in clothing?
- The facts
- The implications
- What are the opportunities for driving sales in the sector?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Deepening deflation
- Consumer confidence only dips slightly post-Brexit
- Clothes sales to be hit by low growth of 1.8% in 2016
- Consumers cut back on clothing as share of total spend
- Menswear drives growth
- Clothing specialists’ sales to drop 4%
Market Drivers
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- Deepening deflation
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- Figure 9: Consumer prices inflation for garments, Aug 2015-Aug 2016
- Figure 10: Consumer prices inflation for garments, 2005-15
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- Figure 11: Consumer prices inflation for accessories and footwear, Aug 2015-Aug 2016
- Inflation versus spending growth
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- Figure 12: Annual percentage change in spending on clothing (including accessories) versus annual percentage change in consumer prices inflation in clothing, 2012-15
- Obesity levels
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- Figure 13: Proportion of overweight and obese population, by gender, 2009-14
- Consumer confidence only dips slightly post-Brexit
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- Figure 14: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, January 2015-August 2016
- Implications of a drop in young consumers
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- Figure 15: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-20
- 25-44s drive clothing sales
- Catering to an ageing population
Market Size and Forecast
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- Clothes sales to be hit by low growth of 1.8% in 2016
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- Figure 16: Best- and worst-case forecast for consumer spending on clothing and accessories (incl. VAT), 2011-21
- The future
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- Figure 17: Consumer spending on clothing and accessories (incl. VAT) at current prices, 2011-21
- Consumers cut back on clothing as share of total spend
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- Figure 18: Spending on clothing and accessories as percentage of all consumer spending, 2011-16
- Menswear drives growth
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- Figure 19: Estimated distribution of spending on clothing, by sub-category, 2016 (est)
- Forecast methodology
- The impact of the EU referendum vote
- Clothing spend has been resilient in previous slowdowns
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- Figure 20: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit clothing and accessories market, at current prices, 2016-21
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- Figure 21: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for the clothing and accessories market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Clothing is struggling, but not as a result of Brexit
- Consumers prioritised clothing over leisure previously
- Women continued to spend post-recession
Sector Size and Forecast
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- Clothing specialists’ sales to drop 4%
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- Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecast of clothing specialists’ sector sales (incl. VAT), 2011-21
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- Figure 23: Clothing specialist sales (incl. VAT), 2011-21
- Specialists’ sales of clothing
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- Figure 24: Estimated sales of clothing by clothing specialist retailers (incl. VAT), 2011-16
- Specialists’ share of clothing spend declines further
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- Figure 25: Clothing specialists’ estimated share of spending on clothing, 2011-16
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Next moves into the lead
- Retailers with strong lifestyle brands outperform
- Over half of the top players are non-specialists
- M&S sees its share of clothing decline further
- Supermarkets develop their clothing ranges
- ASOS is the brand with the highest level of recommendations
Leading Specialist Retailers
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- Next moves into the lead
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- Figure 26: Leading specialist retailers: net revenues, 2011-15
- Retailers with strong lifestyle brands outperform
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- Figure 27: Leading 20 specialist retailers: compound annual growth in revenues, 2011-15
- Outlet numbers and sales per outlet
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- Figure 28: Leading specialist retailers: outlet numbers, 2011-15
- Sales per outlet
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- Figure 29: Leading specialist retailers: annual sales per outlet, 2011-15
- Sales area and sales densities
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- Figure 30: Leading specialist retailers: total sales area, 2011-15
- Figure 31: Leading specialist retailers: annual sales per sq m, 2011-15
- Operating profits and margins
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- Figure 32: Leading specialist retailers: operating profits, 2011-15
- Figure 33: Leading specialist retailers: operating margins, 2011-15
Market Shares
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- Over half of the top players are non-specialists
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- Figure 34: Leading retailers’ share of spending on clothing and footwear, 2013-15
- M&S sees its share of clothing decline further
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- Figure 35: Marks & Spencer’s share of spending on clothing and footwear, 2008-15
Leading Non-Specialist Retailers
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- Figure 36: Leading non-specialist retailers: net clothing and footwear revenues, 2013-15
- Online-only retailers see strong sales
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- Figure 37: Retailers from which clothes have been bought in the last 12 months, in-store or online, July 2016
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Channels of Distribution
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- Grocers and pureplays gain share
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- Figure 38: Estimated distribution of consumer spending on clothing, by value, 2014-16
- Specialists lose share further
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- Figure 39: Clothing specialists’ estimated share of spending on clothing, 2011-16
Space Allocation Summary
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- Gender split
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- Figure 40: Specialist and non-specialist clothing retailers, estimated space allocation by men’s, women’s and children’s wear, October 2016
- Detailed category space allocation
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- Figure 41: Specialist and non-specialist clothing retailers, estimated detailed space allocation by category, October 2016
- Figure 42: Specialist and non-specialist clothing retailers, estimated detailed space allocation by category, October 2016
- Clothing versus non-clothing space split
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- Figure 43: Specialist and non-specialist clothing retailers, estimated clothing versus non-clothing space, October 2016
Retail Product Mix
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- Figure 44: Leading retailers of clothing, estimated sales mix, 2015
- Figure 45: Leading clothing retailers, share of clothing sales by product, 2015/16
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- Figure 46: Leading clothing retailers, estimated sales density by product, 2015/16
- Figure 47: Leading clothing retailers, share of product markets, 2015/16
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Online
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- Online clothing market to reach £12.8 billion
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- Figure 48: Estimated online sales of clothing and footwear (incl. VAT), 2013-16
- Online market shares
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- Figure 49: Estimated market shares of online sales of clothing and footwear, 2015
- Where consumers shop online
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- Figure 50: Retailers from which clothes were bought in the last 12 months online, July 2016
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Supermarkets develop their clothing ranges
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- Figure 51: Press images from Sainsbury’s TU Premium range, autumn 2016
- Retailers expand their menswear offer
- Made in Britain: Patrick Gant launches not-for-profit label
- British-made jeans
- Zara launches sustainable clothing collection
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- Figure 52: Garments from Zara’s sustainable Join Life collection, autumn/winter 2016
- ASOS and New Look introduce one-hour delivery slots
- Jigsaw debuts at London Fashion Week
- Selfridges launches Body Studio
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- Figure 53: Selfridges’ new Body Studio department, April 2016
- Figure 54: Interactive mirrors by Oak Labs, 2015
- Mr Porter creates shoppable video content for Apple TV
- Long Tall Sally creates mannequin based on 3D scan of a customer
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Declining advertising spend at the supermarkets
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- Figure 55: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on clothing, top 30 spenders, 2012-16
- Boohoo and Burberry utilise digital channels
- Amazon Fashion launches first television advert
- H&M retains high-profile campaign with David Beckham
- Press advertising accounts for almost half of spend
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- Figure 56: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on clothing, by media type, 2015
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January-August 2016
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 58: Key metrics for selected brands, January-August 2016
- Brand attitudes: ASOS and Very provide a great online service
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- Figure 59: Attitudes, by brand, January-August 2016
- Brand personality: Ted Baker and Jigsaw earn an image of exclusivity
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- Figure 60: Brand personality – Macro image, January-August 2016
- Boohoo and Missguided benefit from cutting-edge image
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- Figure 61: Brand personality – Micro image, January-August 2016
- Brand analysis
- Mid-market retailers: M&S, Next and Gap
- Young and premium fashion retailers: Zara, Superdry, Ted Baker and Jigsaw
- Online-only fashion retailers: ASOS, Boohoo, Missguided and Very
- Value retailers: Primark and TK Maxx
Asda Group Ltd
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- What we think
- In a spin
- Clothing
- Project Renewal
- The need for online growth
- ToYou could provide increased store footfall
- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 62: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
- Figure 63: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
- Retail offering
Arcadia Group
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- What we think
- Total sales grow but like-for-likes are down
- Topshop/Topman drives the business
- Other brands less profitable
- Scope for rationalisation
- Burton: could do better
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 64: Arcadia Group: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
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- Figure 65: Arcadia Group: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
- Retail offering
Debenhams
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- What we think
- More relevant marketing
- More exciting and exclusive new Designers at Debenhams launches
- Children’s clothing
- New fashion concession partners
- Improved multichannel fashion experience
- New chief executive brings a wealth of fashion experience
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 66: Debenhams: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
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- Figure 67: Debenhams: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
- Retail offering
The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group
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- Background
- Company performance
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- Figure 68: The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
- Figure 69: The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
- Retail offering
Grupo Inditex
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- What we think
- Inditex outperforms the market
- Integrating the digital and physical experience
- Zara adopts a more sustainable approach to fast fashion
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 70: Grupo Inditex: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
- Figure 71: Grupo Inditex: Share of sales, by retail brand, 2015/16
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- Figure 72: Grupo Inditex: Sales and operating profit, by major retail brand, 2011/12-2015/16
- Figure 73: Grupo Inditex: Outlet data, by region, at January 2016
- Figure 74: Grupo Inditex: Store numbers, by retail brand, at January 2016
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- Figure 75: Grupo Inditex: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
H&M Hennes & Mauritz
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- What we think
- Designer collaborations boost sales and strengthen fashion credentials
- Rapid store growth
- E-commerce expansion
- A one-stop shop for fashion and beauty
- Sustainable fashion initiatives
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 76: H&M Hennes & Mauritz: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
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- Figure 77: H&M Hennes & Mauritz: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
- Retail offering
House of Fraser Plc
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- What we think
- Capitalising on House Brand and womenswear sales growth
- Online fashion shopping proposition
- Perfect fit
- Store refurbs attracting new fashion brands
- Embracing multicultural fashion
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 78: House of Fraser Plc: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 79: House of Fraser Plc: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
John Lewis
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- What we think
- A strong performance
- An area of focus
- Innovation drives growth
- Online
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 80: John Lewis Partnership: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 81: John Lewis Partnership: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
Matalan
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- What we think
- Liverpool warehouse problems resolved
- New web platform to push online growth
- New shop-in-shop concept
- Bolstering fashion credentials
- Fresh store layouts for a more enjoyable shopping experience
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 82: Missouri TopCo Ltd/Matalan: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 83: Matalan Ltd: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
Marks & Spencer
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- What we think
- Clothing: still the main problem for M&S
- Womenswear remains the focus
- Streamlining the brand portfolio
- Availability and in-store experience must improve
- Back to basics
- Menswear looks promising
- Online sales must improve
- The road ahead
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 84: Marks & Spencer: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 85: Marks & Spencer: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
New Look Group Plc
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- What we think
- Menswear push
- Cosmetics and fragrances and homewares
- Web enhancements and wider delivery options drive own online sales
- Capitalising on third-party e-commerce partners’ local knowledge and expertise
- New concept stores delivering sales and profit growth
- China expansion gathering pace
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 86: New Look Group Plc: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 87: New Look Group Plc: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
Next
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- What we think
- A solid performer
- E-commerce late to mobile
- Becoming more agile
- Store network facilitates click-and-collect
- One brand, multiple channels?
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 88: Next plc: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 89: Next plc: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
Primark/Penneys
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- What we think
- The most popular clothing retailer
- Inevitable slowing of growth
- Facing a triple threat
- Lack of transactional website is hurting it
- Devaluation of pound set to hit margins
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 90: Primark/Penneys: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 91: Primark/Penneys: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
River Island Clothing Co Ltd
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- What we think
- Catering to plus-sized customers
- Making it easier for its customers to buy online
- Menswear push
- New kids’ collection to capitalise on the growing UK children’s clothing market
- Tapping into the athleisure trend
- New delivery option for customers unable to collect their orders
- Using digital technology to drive footfall to stores
- New channels to shop River Island
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 92: River Island Clothing Co Ltd: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
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- Figure 93: River Island Clothing Co Ltd: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
- Retail offering
Tesco Plc
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- What we think
- On the road to recovery
- Clothing sales tracking UK sales
- Streamlining online ordering
- In-store concessions: no decision yet
- Exposed to performance of larger Tesco stores
- International expansion for F&F brand
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 94: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 95: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
TJX UK (TK Maxx)
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- What we think
- TK Maxx benefits from younger men’s penchant for designer brands
- Scope for catching up in the online space
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 96: TJX UK (TK Maxx): Group financial performance, 2011/12-2015/16
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- Figure 97: TJX UK (TK Maxx): Outlet data, 2011/12-2015/16
- Retail offering
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Increase in male shoppers
- M&S sees declining female shoppers
- Young men buy clothes most often
- Half of women treat themselves to clothes
- Moving away from discounting
- Growing interest in Made in Britain clothes
- End to seasonal clothes
What Fashion Items People Buy
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- Outerwear dominates
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- Figure 98: Spending habits on clothes, footwear and accessories, September 2016
Retail Customer Profile Comparison
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- Increase in male shoppers
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- Figure 99: Customer profile, by gender, July 2016
- Rise in 35-44s shopping for clothes
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- Figure 100: Customer profile, by age, July 2016
- Figure 101: Customer profile, by socio-economic group, July 2016
Where People Shop for Clothes
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- M&S sees declining female shoppers
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- Figure 102: Retailers from which clothes are bought both in-store and online, July 2016
- Amazon is fifth most popular for fashion
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- Figure 103: Retailers from which clothes are bought split by in-store and online, July 2016
- Supermarkets grow in popularity for clothing
- Young men are shopping more at young fashion retailers
- Who is driving growth?
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- Figure 104: People who have bought clothes for themselves in-store and/or online or have not bought clothes in the last 12 months, by gender and age, July 2016
- Repertoire analysis
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- Figure 105: Repertoire of retailers from which clothes are bought in-store or online, July 2016
Frequency of Buying Clothes
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- Figure 106: How often consumers have bought clothes in the last 12 months, July 2016
- Young men buy clothes most often
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- Figure 107: Consumers who have bought clothes once a month or more often in the last 12 months, by gender and age, July 2016
- Women aged 25-44 shop less frequently, but will pay for quality
- Affluent buy clothes more frequently
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- Figure 108: Consumers who have bought clothes once a month or more often or once every 2-3 months or less in the last 12 months, by how they describe their financial situation, July 2016
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Reasons for Buying Clothes
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- Half of women treat themselves to clothes
- Retailers combine leisure and retail
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- Figure 109: Reasons consumers have bought clothes for themselves in the last 12 months, July 2016
- Moving away from discounting
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- Figure 110: Consumers who have bought clothes for themselves in the last 12 months to take advantage of a sale/special offer, by gender and age, July 2016
Attitudes towards Buying Clothes
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- Growing interest in Made in Britain clothes
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- Figure 111: Agreement with attitudes towards buying clothes, July 2016
- Young men focus on design
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- Figure 112: Agreement with statement ‘I prefer designs that stand out’, by gender and age compared with average, July 2016
- Young women drawn to low prices
Attitudes towards Shopping For Clothes
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- End to seasonal clothes
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- Figure 113: Agreement with attitudes towards shopping for clothes, July 2016
- Older women drawn to in-store displays
- Young men want to see stock availability online
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data Sources
- Definitions
- VAT
- Sales per store, sales per sq m
- Other
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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