Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Signs are positive for a strong winter holiday season
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales in November and December, at current prices, 2005-15
- The endless cycle of deals and discounts
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- Figure 2: Deal-seeking attitudes and behaviors, April 2015
- Consumers are shopping on their own terms
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- Figure 3: Number of gifts planned to buy online, April 2015
- The opportunities
- Gift cards remain a hot commodity
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- Figure 4: Items likely to be purchased as gift vs. desired for self during 2015 winter holiday season, April 2015
- Stay nimble to appeal to planners and procrastinators
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- Figure 5: Planned winter holiday shopping timeline, April 2015
- Invigorate the magic of the holidays
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- Figure 6: Desired holiday shopping improvements, April 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- $700 billion in retail sales estimated for 2015 season
- Stronger economy linked to higher consumer confidence
- Shopping done online and via mobile devices will increase
- Spending more doesn’t equate to willingness to pay more
Market Size
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- 2015 holiday season slated for growth
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales in November and December, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2005-15
- Bar was set high in 2014 season
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- Figure 9: Anticipated average expenditures for winter holidays, at current prices, 2009-14
Market Factors
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- People are more positive about personal finances vs. economy at large
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- Figure 10: Outlook on personal financial situation vs. American economy in coming 12 months, August 2013-September 2014
- Higher confidence levels mean potentially higher discretionary spending
- Gross domestic product and disposable personal income see gains
- Shoppers remain price-sensitive
- Length of time between major holidays affects anticipated sales forecasts
- Tools and technology are changing the retail landscape
- Changes in shipping practices can impact retailers and consumers alike
Key Strategies – What You Need to Know
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- Being nimble can pay off
- Always on deal
- Free and fast
What’s Working?
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- Stronger economy will work in retailers’ favor, but opportunity exists to recapture holiday magic
- In their words
What’s Struggling?
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- Have Black Friday and Cyber Monday lost their lustre?
- Black Friday: In their words
- Avoiders
- Fanatics
What’s Next?
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- Above all, online shoppers want free shipping
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- Figure 11: Desired holiday shopping improvements, April 2015
- On demand everything
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers continue to treat themselves
- The holiday season is getting longer
- Online shopping will again be dominant
- Peer-to-peer reviews and social media can aid in decision making
Purchased and/or Desired Items
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- Food and beverages are most commonly purchased items
- Gift cards have broad appeal
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- Figure 12: Correspondence Analysis, items purchased during 2014 winter holiday season, April 2015
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- Figure 13: Items likely to be purchased as gift vs. desired for self during 2015 winter holiday season, April 2015
- ‘Tis the season to treat myself
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- Figure 14: Attitudes toward big-ticket items, April 2015
- Self-gifting: In their words
- I treat myself
- Gifts are for others
When Consumers Plan to Start Shopping
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- High intention to begin shopping prior to the holidays
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- Figure 15: Planned winter holiday shopping timeline, April 2015
- Black Friday in the red?
Shopping Behavior and Preferences
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- All bets are off: Online will be the big winner
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- Figure 16: Number of gifts planned to buy online, April 2015
- Online vs. in-store
- Mobile shopping set to take off
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- Figure 17: Activities consumers planned to do on smartphones vs. tablets for holiday shopping, October 2014
- The “right” item can trump price
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- Figure 18: Preference for product selection versus price, April 2015
Holiday Shopping Influencers
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- Advertising is a given; it’s the go-to-market strategy that matters
- Social channels provide inspiration
- User reviews can make or break a purchase
- So many choices, so little time
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- Figure 19: Shopping influencers during the holidays, April 2015
- In their words
- User reviews
- Technology and tools
- Mobile couponing
- Yes, please
- No thanks
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Figure 21: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures, in current dollars, 2009-14
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- Figure 22: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-May 15
- Figure 23: Real gross domestic product and related measures: percent change from preceding period, 2008-Q1 2015
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- Figure 24: Real disposable personal income: percent change from preceding periods, 2008-April 2015
- Figure 25: US median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
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- Figure 26: Percent of total households, by number of people in household, 2013
- Figure 27: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
- Figure 28: Length of the holiday shopping season, 2005-15
- Figure 29: US all grades all formulations retail gasoline prices (dollars per gallon), 2012-May 2015
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Additional data
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- Figure 30: Items purchased during 2014 winter holiday season, April 2015
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- Figure 31: Likelihood of buying items for self during holidays, October 2014
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