Table of Contents
Overview
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- Key issues covered in this report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Impact of the January lockdown and the vaccination rollout
- Economic and other assumptions
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on meat substitutes
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on meat substitutes, 11 February 2021
- The market
- Market size and forecast
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- Figure 2: Market size and forecast for retail value sales of meat substitutes, 2015-25
- Chilled steals share from frozen
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of meat substitutes, by segment, 2018-20
- The environmental impact of meat production remains in the media glare
- A spotlight on the link between meat production and pandemic
- Impacts of Brexit could be detrimental to sales of meat
- Companies and brands
- Quorn’s share takes a big hit in chilled, The Tofoo Co is the star performer
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ value sales in the UK chilled meat substitutes market, 2018-20
- Private label closes the gap on brands in NPD; frozen rebounds in 2020; use of proteins other than soy rises
- Adspend is up year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2020; Quorn puts focus on sustainability
- The consumer
- 2020 marks a reversal in the meat reduction trend
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- Figure 5: Meat eating habits, 2017-2020
- Awareness of environmental benefits of eating less meat has shot up
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- Figure 6: Benefits associated with eating less meat, July 2018 and September 2020
- Half of adults eat meat substitutes
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- Figure 7: Frequency of eating meat substitutes, by meat eating habits, September 2020
- Weekday evening meals are the primary usage occasion
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- Figure 8: Usage occasions for meat substitutes, September 2020
- The market is marred by an overpriced and processed image; the use of soy is a deterrent
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- Figure 9: Non-users’ behaviours related to meat substitutes, September 2020
- Demand for more transparency over environmental benefits; users are divided over preference for vegan products
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- Figure 10: Users’ behaviours related to meat substitutes, September 2020
- Products which match meat on nutrition resonate widely; green packaging is needed to carve a holistically sustainable image
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards meat substitutes, September 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Carbon footprints can help meet demand for more transparency over environmental benefits
- Dialling up associations with indulgence through NPD would be timely
- Scope to push links to the feelgood factor linked to meat reduction
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- The pandemic added more fuel to the market’s explosive growth
- Chilled steals share from frozen
- Volumes expected to dip in 2021 before continuing on an upward trajectory
- The environmental impact of meat production remains in the media glare
- A spotlight on the link between meat production and pandemic
- Impacts of Brexit could be detrimental to sales of meat
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on meat substitutes
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- Figure 12: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on meat substitutes, 11 February 2021
- The pandemic added more fuel to the market’s explosive growth
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- Figure 13: Retail market size for meat substitutes, 2015-2025 (prepared on 11 February 2021)
- Volumes expected to dip in 2021 before continuing on an upward trajectory
- The meat reduction trend is set to rebound
- Growth is predicted to slow towards the end of the five-year period
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- Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail value sales of meat substitutes, 2015-25
- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of meat substitutes, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 16: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-2025 (prepared on 11 February 2021)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 17: Value sales of meat-free foods, 2008-12
Market Segmentation
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- Chilled steals share from frozen
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- Figure 18: UK retail value and volume sales of meat substitutes, by segment, 2018-20
- The shift towards chilled accelerated in 2020
- The future looks rosy for frozen meat substitutes
- Sausages and tofu see the strongest volume growth in chilled
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of chilled meat substitutes, by sub-segment, 2019-20
- Value growth across the board in frozen; burgers see biggest boost
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of frozen meat substitutes, by sub-segment, 2018-20
Market Drivers
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- Impact of the wave of early 2021 lockdowns
- The environmental impact of meat production remains in the media glare
- UK health professions push for climate tax on meat
- Soya is also linked to deforestation
- A spotlight on the link between meat production and pandemic
- Impacts of Brexit are likely to be detrimental to sales of meat
- The risk of a no-deal Brexit has been averted
- Concerns over changes to standards for meat arising from Brexit
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Intensifying competition take its toll on market leader Quorn
- Quorn’s and Linda McCartney’s stronghold weakens as competition heats up
- Private label closes the gap on brands in NPD with a raft of launch activity
- Following boom in chilled NPD in 2019, activity in frozen rebounds in 2020
- More meat-free activity from meat-based brands
- Use of wheat and pea proteins rises
- Adspend is up year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2020
- Quorn puts the focus on sustainability in new Step in the Right Direction campaign
Market Share
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- Intensifying competition take its toll on market leader Quorn
- Quorn’s share takes a big hit in 2020
- The Tofoo Co is the star performer among leading brands
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled meat substitutes market, by value and volume, 2018-20
- Quorn’s and Linda McCartney’s stronghold on the market weakens; Birds Eye’s sales boom
- Other brands also steal share
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen meat substitutes market, by value and volume, 2018-20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Meat substitutes launch activity plateaus in 2020; meat regains share
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- Figure 23: Share of new launches in the processed meat, poultry, fish, meat substitutes and egg products market, by segment, 2016-20
- Private label closes the gap on brands with a raft of launch activity
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- Figure 24: Share of new launches in the meat substitutes market, by branded versus own-label, 2016-20
- Asda unveils Plant Based sub-brand
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- Figure 25: Selection of launches from Asda’s Plant Based range, 2020
- Sainsbury’s launches Plant Pioneer range
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- Figure 26: Selection of launches from Sainsbury’s Plant Pioneer range, 2020
- The Co-op introduces the GRO range
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- Figure 27: Selection of launches from Co-op’s GRO range, 2020
- Major expansion for M&S Plant Kitchen range in 2020
- Morrisons expands V Taste range with ‘fake meat’
- Aldi renames vegan range Plant Menu to make it more inclusive and adds new products
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- Figure 28: Selection of vegan launches from M&S, Morrisons and Aldi, 2020
- Following boom in chilled NPD in 2019, activity in frozen rebounds
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- Figure 29: Share of new launches in the meat substitutes market, by storage type, 2016-20
- A flurry of new vegan pastry-based launches
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- Figure 30: Selection of vegan launches from Iceland, The Fry Family Food Co and Birds Eye Green Cuisine, 2020
- More activity in vegan ‘fish’
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- Figure 31: Launches of vegan alternatives to fish, 2019-20
- Richmond expands its meat-free range
- Finnebrogue forays into meat-free under its Naked brand
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- Figure 32: Meat substitute launches from meat brands, 2020
- Use of wheat and pea proteins rises
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- Figure 33: Share of new launches in the meat substitutes, by type of protein included as an ingredient, by top 10 (ordered by 2020), 2016-20
- Meatless Farm replaces soy in its sausages and burgers
- Oats get more visibility
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- Figure 34: Gold&Green Pulled Oats Tomato Mince, UK, 2020
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend is up year on year in Q1-Q3 2020
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- Figure 35: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on meat substitutes, 2019-20
- Marlow Foods continues to lead adspend, but loses share in 2020
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- Figure 36: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on meat substitutes, by leading advertisers, 2019-20
- Quorn unveils Step in the Right Direction campaign …
- … but ad is banned by ASA
- Educational campaign from Quorn
- Veganuary launches TV campaign in 2020
- Cauldron unveils own campaign for Veganuary
- The Meatless Farm launches its biggest campaign to date
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- Figure 37: Meatless Farm’s M*** F*** national outdoor campaign, August 2020
- Allplants launches TV ad
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- 2020 marks a reversal in the meat reduction trend
- Awareness of environmental benefits of eating less meat has shot up
- Half of adults eat meat substitutes
- Weekday evening meals are the primary usage occasion
- The market is marred by an overpriced and processed image
- The use of soy is a deterrent
- Demand for more transparency over environmental benefits
- Users are divided over preference for vegan products
- Products which match meat on nutrition resonate widely
- Green packaging is needed to carve a holistically sustainable image
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- The comforting, versatile and family-friendly nature of processed meat has come to the fore
- Health and weight management become higher priorities
- COVID-19 brings environment into further spotlight
- A financial squeeze will fuel meat reduction; meat substitutes’ overpriced image will be problematic
- Rise in home cooking favours the use of ingredients over meat substitutes
- Restrictions on the hospitality sector and consumers curbing visits will boost the appeal of more indulgent food
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- Figure 38: Feeling comfortable about going to restaurants/bars indoors, 25 June-1 October 2020
Meat Eating Habits
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- 2020 marks a reversal in the meat reduction trend
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- Figure 39: Meat eating habits, 2017-20
- The pandemic has caused a relaxation of some habits, including flexitarianism
- However, this movement is set to rebound quickly
- Flexitarianism is strongest among more affluent consumers
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- Figure 40: Meat eating habits, by socio-economic group and household income, September 2020
- Veganism remains very niche
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- Figure 41: Diets followed by non-meat/poultry eaters, September 2020
Benefits Associated with Eating Less Meat
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- Half of adults associate at least two benefits to eating less meat
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- Figure 42: Number of benefits associated with eating less meat, September 2020
- Awareness of environmental benefits has shot up …
- … with its relevance increasing since the pandemic
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- Figure 43: Benefits associated with eating less meat, July 2018 and September 2020
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- Figure 44: Benefits associated with eating less meat, by meat eating habits, September 2020
- Emotional benefits are effective in driving usage of meat substitutes
- Scope to push links to the feelgood factor
Usage of Meat Substitutes
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- Half of adults eat meat substitutes
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- Figure 45: Usage of meat substitutes, by age and gender, September 2020
- Usage is highest among non-meat eaters and limiters/reducers
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- Figure 46: Usage of meat substitutes, by meat eating habits, September 2020
- Overall meat substitutes have low usage frequency
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- Figure 47: Frequency of eating meat substitutes, by meat eating habits, September 2020
- Uncooked meat substitutes are most popular
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- Figure 48: Usage of meat substitutes, by type, September 2020
Usage Occasions for Meat Substitutes
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- Weekday evening meals are the primary usage occasion
- A focus on indulgence could help to build on the weekend evening meal occasion
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- Figure 49: Usage occasions for meat substitutes, September 2020
- Scope to build on breakfast, lunch and snacking occasions
Non-users’ Behaviours Related to Meat Substitutes
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- The market is marred by an overpriced and processed image
- A stronger focus should be put on clean label
- Products need to boost their value credentials
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- Figure 50: Non-users’ behaviours related to meat substitutes, September 2020
- The use of soy is a deterrent
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- Figure 51: Rainforest-free soya on-pack label on Alpro Soya Drink for Hot Beverages, 2020
Users’ Behaviours Related to Meat Substitutes
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- Demand for more transparency over environmental benefits
- Carbon footprints can help to disentangle complex sustainability issues
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- Figure 52: Behaviours related to meat substitutes, September 2020
- Users are divided over preference for vegan products
- There is room for products from both meat and meat substitute brands
Attitudes towards Meat Substitutes
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- Products which match meat on nutrition resonate widely
- High demand for substitutes to deliver nutritional benefits
- Only 6% of launches call out vitamin B12
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- Figure 53: Attitudes towards meat substitutes, September 2020
- Opportunities around UK provenance
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- Figure 54: Attitudes towards meat substitutes, by usage of meat substitutes, September 2020
- Green packaging is needed to carve a holistically sustainable image
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast Methodology
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- Figure 55: UK value sales of meat substitutes, best- and worst-case forecast, 2020-25
- Figure 56: UK volume sales of meat substitutes, best- and worst-case forecast, 2020-25
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 57: Leading manufactures’ sales and shares in the UK chilled meat substitutes market, by value and volume, 2018-20
- Figure 58: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen meat substitutes market, by value and volume, 2018-20
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 59: Share of new launches in the meat substitutes carrying a vegan claim, 2016-20
- Figure 60: Share of new launches in the meat substitutes carrying selected claims, by claim, 2016-20
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