Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on clothing category
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on clothing, 3 November 2020
- The market
- Appetite for clothing declines dramatically
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- Figure 2: Consumer spending on clothing and accessories, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)*
- Specialists see deepest declines
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- Figure 3: Retail sales through specialist clothing retailers, 2015-25 (prepared on 3 November 2020)
- Online clothing sales jump in 2020
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- Figure 4: Online sales of clothing and accessories, 2015-20
- Companies and brands
- Next remains leading specialist
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- Figure 5: Leading specialist retailers: compound annual growth in revenues, 2015-19
- M&S loses trust, while Next and Primark seen as innovative
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards and usage of selected clothing brands, February-September 2020
- Adspend revives following lockdown slump
- The consumer
- People feel uncomfortable trying on clothes in-store
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- Figure 7: Changing priorities since COVID-19, 10-17 September 2020
- Surge in sportswear purchasing
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- Figure 8: Outerwear items purchased in the last three months, June 2019-September 2020
- Consumers more likely to have bought online than in-store
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- Figure 9: How consumers have bought clothes for themselves in the last 12 months, August 2020
- Amazon competes for lead with M&S
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- Figure 10: Retailers used to purchase clothing in the last 12 months, net of retailers used to purchase in-store and/or online, August 2020
- Buying new clothes becomes less of a priority
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- Figure 11: Changes in clothes shopping behaviour since COVID-19, August 2020
- Value for money dominates
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- Figure 12: Most important factors when choosing which clothes to buy, August 2020
- Young prefer to buy from brands that promote diversity
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- Figure 13: Clothes shopping behaviour, August 2020
- Adapting stores in a time of COVID
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- Figure 14: Clothes shopping behaviour in-store once clothes stores have reopened following COVID-19 lockdown, August 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Impact of COVID-19 on the clothing market
- Who are the winners and losers in clothing?
- Adapting to a new fashion retail reality
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Dramatic decline in clothing sales in 2020
- Gradual recovery
- Specialists see deepest declines
- Consumer confidence remains volatile
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 leads to a drop in appetite for clothing
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- Figure 15: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on clothing, 3 November 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- Dramatic decline in clothing sales in 2020
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- Figure 16: Consumer spending on clothing and accessories, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 November 2020)*
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- Figure 17: Consumer spending on clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2015-25
- Continued anxiety impacts footfall
- Gradual recovery
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 18: Consumer spending on clothing and accessories, 2008-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Underwear market gains share
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- Figure 19: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on clothing and accessories, 2020
- Figure 20: Estimated % breakdown of consumer spending on clothing and accessories, 2018-20
Sector Size and Forecast
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- Specialists see deepest declines
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- Figure 21: Retail sales through specialist clothing retailers, 2015-25 (prepared on 3 November 2020)
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- Figure 22: Retail sales through specialist clothing retailers, at current prices, 2015-25
- Polarised recovery
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Clothing sales through specialist clothing retailers
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- Figure 23: Sales of clothing and accessories through clothing retailers, 2015-20
- Source: ONS/Mintel
Channels of Distribution
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- COVID-19 increases shifts in where people shop for clothing
- Specialists hardest-hit sector of COVID-19 pandemic
- Department stores also underperforming
- Growing sectors
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- Figure 25: Estimated distribution of consumer spending on clothing, by type of retailer, 2019
- Figure 26: Estimated distribution of consumer spending on clothing, by type of retailer, 2015-19
Market Drivers
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- Clothing falls into deflation
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- Figure 27: Consumer price inflation, 2009-19
- Footwear inflation drops further in September 2020
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- Figure 28: Consumer price inflation, August 2019-September 2020
- Real wage growth falling
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- Figure 29: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, January 2016-August 2020
- Consumer confidence remains volatile
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- Figure 30: Mintel financial confidence tracker, January 2018-August 2020
- Consumers saving more
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- Figure 31: Trends in what extra money is spent on, September 2019 and September 2020
- Rates of obesity high among women
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- Figure 32: Overweight and obesity prevalence in UK population, by gender, 2014-18
- Increase in young will benefit clothing market
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- Figure 33: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2019-29
- Consumers spending more time online due to COVID-19
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- Figure 34: Online activities done in the last three months on any device, June 2019 and June 2020
Online
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- Online clothing sales grow by 26% in 2020
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- Figure 35: Online sales of clothing and accessories, 2015-20
- Where they shop online
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- Figure 36: Retailers used to purchase clothing online in the last 12 months, August 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Next remains leading specialist but Primark surpasses M&S
- Online players benefit from shift online
- Face masks present new category for retailer
- ASOS stands out as the most trusted pureplay
Leading Specialists
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- Next remains leading specialist but Primark surpasses M&S
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- Figure 37: Leading specialist retailers: net revenues, 2015-19
- Clothing specialists show polarised performance over the past five years
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- Figure 38: Leading specialist retailers: compound annual growth in revenues, 2015-19
- COVID-19 forced struggling retailers to close stores
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- Figure 39: Leading specialist retailers: Outlet numbers, 2015-19
- Sales per outlet
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- Figure 40: Leading specialist retailers: estimated annual sales per outlet, 2015-19
- Sales area and sales densities
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- Figure 41: Leading specialist retailers: total sales area, 2015-19
- Figure 42: Leading specialist retailers: estimated annual sales per square metre, 2015-19
- Operating profit and margins
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- Figure 43: Leading specialist retailers: operating profits, 2015-19
- Figure 44: Leading specialist retailers: operating margins, 2015-19
Leading Non-specialists
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- Sports retailers
- Department stores
- Supermarkets are major players
- Online retailers
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- Figure 45: Leading non-specialists: estimated clothing and footwear revenues, 2015-19
Market Shares
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- Figure 46: Leading retailers’ estimated share of spending on clothing and footwear, 2015-19
- Change in market shares
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- Figure 47: Leading clothing retailers, change in share of clothing spending, 2015-19
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Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Retailers strengthen ecommerce
- Hush reveals new ecommerce website with mobile-first design
- Mango launches virtual chatbot
- Morrisons launches dedicated website for own clothing brand Nutmeg
- Retailers help consumers shop safely
- Missguided teams up with InPost UK to offer contact-free click-and-collect service
- Phase Eight offers in-store personal styling appointments
- ASOS accelerates AR clothes fitting service
- Diesel unveils digital showroom Hyperoom
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- Figure 48: Diesel’s digital selling platform and showroom, 2020
- Sustainability
- Timberland’s first sustainability concept store
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- Figure 49: Timberland’s sustainability store on Carnaby Street, 2020
- Selfridges launches Project Earth
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- Figure 50: The Restory at Selfridges, 2020
- Connolly launches upcycled collection pop-up at Portobello Market
- Puma unveils new Dope Dye Technology
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- Figure 51: The Puma X CSM collection, 2020
- Resale and rental fashion
- Liberty enters rental market in collaboration with My Wardrobe HQ
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- Figure 52: My Wardrobe HQ pop-up at Liberty, 2020
- Selfridges partners with HURR Collective in first designer fashion rental collection
- Oxfam opens second-hand shop in Selfridges for #SecondHandSeptember
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- Figure 53: Oxfam pop-up at Selfridges, 2020
- Pop-ups
- Lone Design Club reveals shoppable window
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- Figure 54: Lone Design Club shoppable window, 2020
- Burberry launches digital and in-store ‘Animal Kingdom’ pop-ups
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- Figure 55: Burberry’s Animal Kingdom collection, 2020
- Ted Baker teams up with Creative Mentor Network to celebrate store reopening
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- Figure 56: Ted Baker ‘Nice To See You, To See You Nice’ slogan, 2020
- Face-covering launches
- Burberry to launch luxury face masks costing £90
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- Figure 57: Burberry’s face masks, 2020
- Sainsbury’s Tu sells face coverings for adults and children
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- Figure 58: Sainsbury’s Tu family pack of face masks, 2020
- Christopher Kane launches free face mask craft packs
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- Figure 59: Christopher Kane free face masks, 2020
- Brands launch matching masks for outfits
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- Figure 60: Designer Samantha Cameron’s matching dress and face mask for brand Cefinn, 2020
- Retailers repurpose factories as part of COVID-19 relief effort
- Mulberry delivers PPE to hospitals
- Reiss repurposes supply chain to produce face masks
- Mackintosh uses factory in Nelson to produce nurse uniforms
- Primark donates to NHS
- M&S providing pyjamas for NHS workers
- Kurt Geiger donates shoes to NHS staff and first month of store profits from 15 June
- Net-A-Porter helps deliver essentials to those in need
- Launches and store openings
- Morrisons opens Nutmeg clothing standalone store
- Morrisons launches website for Nutmeg
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- Figure 61: Morrisons Nutmeg store, 2020
- Forever 21 enters UK with online store
- Missguided launches lockdown-inspired range
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- Figure 62: Missguided lockdown-inspired range, 2020
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Sector advertising spend down 8.5% year-on-year in 2019
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- Figure 63: Total recorded above-the-line advertising expenditure on clothing and accessories, 2015-19
- Advertising spend back to pre-pandemic level following COVID-19 lockdown slump
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- Figure 64: Total recorded above-the-line advertising expenditure on clothing and accessories, by month, January-July 2019 and 2020
- Shein is the biggest spender despite spending half of what it did in 2018
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- Figure 65: Total recorded above-the-line, online, display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on clothing and accessories, by leading spenders, 2015-19
- Outdoor and TV share of advertising spend increasing as dominant digital begins to decline
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- Figure 66: Total recorded above-the-line advertising expenditure percentage on clothing, by media type, total market, 2019
- 2020 campaign highlights
- Shein’s first out-of-home advertising campaign
- Marks & Spencer digitally focused athleisure campaign and first ever denim TV advert
- Matalan new brand positioning campaign
- Freemans’ new website, app and exclusive clothing collection
- John Lewis advertises its spring/summer season on TV for the first time ever
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, February-September 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 68: Key metrics for selected brands, February-September 2020
- Brand attitudes: ASOS seen as innovative
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- Figure 69: Attitudes, by brand, February-September 2020
- Supermarket clothing brands seen as accessible
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- Figure 70: Brand personality – Macro image, February-September 2020
- JD Sports viewed as stylish and responsive
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- Figure 71: Brand personality – Micro image, February-September 2020
- Brand analysis
- M&S loses trust, while Next and Primark seen as innovative
- Supermarket clothing brands seen as offering good value
- ASOS stands out as the most trusted pureplay
- Gap seen as overrated
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- People are spending less on fashion
- Younger generations favour buying online, but also visit stores
- Amazon competes for lead with M&S
- New clothes and fashion trends become less of a priority
- Value for money dominates
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Over a quarter are worse off since COVID-19…
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- Figure 72: Change in financial situation since COVID-19 outbreak, 25 June-7 August 2020
- …with women most concerned
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- Figure 73: Fears around the negative impact COVID-19 will have on people’s lives, by gender, 18-24 June 2020
- People are spending less on fashion…
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- Figure 74: Consumer spending habits since COVID-19, 10-17 September 2020
- …but there has been a notable increase in online purchases
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- Figure 75: People shopping more online since COVID-19, 16 April-17 September 2020
- People feel uncomfortable trying on clothes in-store
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- Figure 76: Changing priorities since COVID-19, 10-17 September 2020
- Growing usage of face masks
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- Figure 77: Face masks and scrunchies, September 2020
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- Figure 78: Agreement with usage of face masks/coverings in different situations, 10-17 September 2020
What They Buy
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- Appetite for fashion falls
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- Figure 79: Fashion items purchased in the last three months, June 2019-September 2020
- Surge in sportswear purchasing
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- Figure 80: Outerwear items purchased in the last three months, June 2019-September 2020
- Most consumers only buy one or two items
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- Figure 81: Number of clothing items purchased on most recent shopping trip, June 2019-September 2020
- Big decline in consumers spending £75 and over
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- Figure 82: Trends in amount spent on clothing, June 2019-September 2020
How They Shop
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- Consumers more likely to have bought online than in-store
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- Figure 83: How consumers have bought clothes for themselves in the last 12 months, August 2020
- Younger generations favour buying online, but also visit stores
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- Figure 84: How consumers have bought clothes for themselves in the last 12 months, by generation, August 2020
- Young women continue to shop, while young men cut back
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- Figure 85: People who have bought clothes for themselves in-store and/or online or have not bought clothes in the last 12 months, by gender and age, August 2020
Where They Shop
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- Specialists most popular, but pureplays growing
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- Figure 86: Types of retailers used to purchase clothing in the last 12 months, by channel, August 2020
- Amazon competes for lead with M&S
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- Figure 87: Retailers used to purchase clothing in the last 12 months, net of retailers used to purchase in-store and/or online, August 2020
- Primark retains popularity despite lack of online site
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- Figure 88: Retailers used to purchase clothing in the last 12 months, by channel, August 2020
- People shop at fewer retailers
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- Figure 89: Repertoire of retailers used to purchase clothing in the last 12 months, by channel, August 2020
Customer Profiles
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- Next sees increase in male customer base
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- Figure 90: Retailer customer profile, by gender, August 2020
- ASOS loses youngest shoppers
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- Figure 91: Retailer customer profile, by age, August 2020
- Figure 92: Retailer customer profile, by socio-economic group, August 2020
Changes to Clothes Shopping since COVID-19
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- Buying new clothes becomes less of a priority
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- Figure 93: Changes in clothes shopping behaviour since COVID-19, August 2020
- Younger Millennials shun trendy fashion
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- Figure 94: Changes in clothes shopping behaviour since COVID-19, by generation, August 2020
- Baby Boomers worry about visiting stores
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- Figure 95: Changes in clothes shopping behaviour since COVID-19, by generation, August 2020
Most Important Factors when Buying Clothes
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- Value for money dominates
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- Figure 96: Most important factors when choosing which clothes to buy, August 2020
- Young online shoppers want more inclusive and diverse models
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- Figure 97: Most important factors when choosing which clothes to buy, by how people have bought clothes in the last 12 months, August 2020
Clothes Shopping Behaviour
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- Younger generations cut back the most…
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- Figure 98: Clothes shopping behaviour, August 2020
- Figure 99: Agreement with statement ‘Concerns about money in the last 12 months have caused me to cut back on buying clothes’, by generation, August 2020
- …but prefer to buy from brands that support causes and promote diversity
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- Figure 100: Agreement with statements ‘I prefer to buy clothes from brands that support important causes than those that don’t’ and ‘I would be put off buying clothes from a retailer that doesn’t promote diversity’, by generation, August 2020
- Young buy clothes to look good online
- Parents of under-18s buy more clothes on discount
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- Figure 101: Clothing Retailing – CHAID – Tree output, August 2020
- Methodology
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- Figure 102: Clothing retailing – CHAID – Table output, August 2020
Clothes Shopping In-store at a Time of COVID-19
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- Comfort with in-store shopping depends on age
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- Figure 103: Clothes shopping behaviour in-store once clothes stores have reopened following COVID-19 lockdown, August 2020
- Adapting stores in a time of COVID
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- Figure 104: Agreement with statements ‘I have visited a clothing store’, ‘I feel comfortable going shopping for clothes in-store’ and ‘I think social distancing is being done properly in stores’ now that stores have reopened, by age, August 2020
- Women think it is pointless to visit stores without fitting rooms
Arcadia
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- What we think
- Arcadia closes more stores and plans restructure post-COVID-19…
- …Westfield Stratford is to close after lease expires…
- …but Topshop on Oxford Street to remain open after £310 million refinancing
- Arcadia furloughs 14,500 staff and execs face 50% pay cuts
- Snapchat teams up with adidas and Topshop in new ecommerce initiative
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 105: Arcadia Group: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/2019
- Figure 106: Arcadia: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
- Retail offering
Grupo Inditex
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- What we think
- A global business
- Upsizing stores
- Online a big opportunity for growth
- Technology at the heart of the business
- Flexible and responsive approach to production helped it cope with COVID
- Sustainability is key to future
- Where now?
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 107: Grupo Inditex: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 108: Grupo Inditex: Sales by brand, 2019/20
- Figure 109: Grupo Inditex: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 110: Grupo Inditex: Outlet numbers by brand, 2019/20
- Retail offering
H&M Hennes & Mauritz
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- What we think
- New hyper-local store concept
- Custom-made perfect fit jeans
- Online expansion giving more customers more options to access its brands
- Livestreaming shopping events
- Fashion rental and re-sale point towards an increased focus on sustainability
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 111: H&M Hennes & Mauritz: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2018/19
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- Figure 112: H&M Hennes & Mauritz: Outlet data, 2014/15-2018/19
- Retail offering
Marks & Spencer
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- What we think
- Clothing delivered with groceries
- Drive-through fashion service
- Online instalment payment option to help spread the cost of buying fashion
- Wider choice of brands to broaden customer appeal
- Shifting focus away from formalwear range to contemporary everyday fashions
- Eradicates alpaca wool from products
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 113: Marks & Spencer: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 114: Marks & Spencer: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
Next Group
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- What we think
- Location of stores has been key
- Greater shift towards online
- Product mix benefited from bias to sports and loungewear
- Growing focus on beauty
- Next ups its ante on underwear
- Where next
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 115: Next Group: Group financial performance, 2014/15-2019/20
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- Figure 116: Next Group: Outlet data, 2014/15-2019/20
- Retail offering
Primark/Penneys
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- What we think
- Missing out on online sales costs the brand millions in lost revenue
- A must-visit destination for consumers shopping for clothes in-store
- Cut-price fashion
- New eco-conscious fashion, homeware and beauty collection
- First ever sportswear collaboration
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 117: Primark/Penneys: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 118: Primark/Penneys: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
River Island
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- What we think
- ‘Buy now, pay later’ online option
- Needs to do more to get customers back through the door
- Commits to being more transparent
- Exclusive childrenswear collaboration with TV star and personality Samantha Faiers
- Own-brand beauty offering
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 119: River Island Holdings Limited: Group financial performance, 2015-19
- Figure 120: River Island Holdings Limited: Outlet data, 2015-19
- Retail offering
TK Maxx UK
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- What we think
- A mountain of unsold stock to choose from
- Knockdown prices
- Giving clothes a second chance
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 121: TK Maxx UK: Group sales performance, 2015/16-2019/20
- Figure 122: TK Maxx UK: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market/Sector Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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