Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on coffee
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- Figure 2: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on coffee, July 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales of coffee, 2009-13
- Recovery
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- Figure 4: Coffee attribute interest, any coffee, by generation, April 2020
- COVID-19: coffee context
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Coffee market enters a growth period
- Pandemic removes foodservice competition
- Working from home creates long-lasting opportunities
Market Size and Forecast
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- Pandemic benefits coffee and creamer markets
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Breakdown
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- Roasted and single-cup coffee set for future growth
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, by segment, 2015-25
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, by segment, 2015-25
- Figure 11: Single-cup machine, espresso maker ownership, 2014-19
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Perspective
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- Coffee shops’ loss is a win for at-home coffee
- Energy drinks deliver the caffeine consumers crave
- Coffee takes on many forms
Market Factors
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- A nationwide shift to working from home is a long-lasting windfall for the market
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- Figure 13: Employed workers who have worked remotely due to the pandemic, March 13-April 2, 2020
- Unemployment offers opportunity
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of coffee, 2009-13
- Figure 15: Total US retail sales of coffee, 2009-13
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Newly at-home workers will upgrade their coffee
- Creamer innovation can meet the moment
- Be prepared for an RTD slowdown
- Turn consumers into baristas
Company and Brand Sales of Coffee
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- Foodservice coffee comes home
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
What’s Working
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- Instant success
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of instant coffee, 2009-20
- Figure 18: Social media mentions of Dalgona coffee and instant coffee over time, February 15-June 15, 2020
- Premium and foodservice-branded coffee will be affordable luxuries
- Creamer makes the money
- Big brands can focus on flavor
- Plant-based creamers follow the growth of other non-dairy products
- Functionality through creamers
What’s Struggling
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- Biggest brands still can’t catch a break
- RTD coffee will need to rethink packaging
What’s Next
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- Replicate the coffee house experience at home
- Mushroom coffees and coffee alternatives trend among the professional class
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Gen Z has not graduated from RTDs
- Cold coffee drinks face competition
- Variety and innovation appeal to coffee enthusiasts
Coffee Consumption
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- Opportunity for less common coffee beverages
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- Figure 19: Coffee consumption, April 2020
- Less than half of Gen Z consumers drink roasted coffee
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- Figure 20: Coffee consumption, by generation, April 2020
- Coffee is not connecting with young men
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- Figure 21: Coffee consumption, by age and gender, April 2020
- Opportunity for premium single-cup coffee
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- Figure 22: Coffee consumption, by age and household income, April 2020
Coffee Consumption by Occasion
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- Hot mornings, cool afternoons
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- Figure 23: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Types of coffee consumed by occasion, April 2020
Retailers Shopped for Coffee
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- Coffee is ideal for ecommerce
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- Figure 24: Retailers shopped for coffee, April 2020
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- Figure 25: Demographics of consumers who purchase coffee online indexed against all coffee drinkers, April 2020
- Retailers should expand their selection of premium coffee
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- Figure 26: Retailers shopped for coffee, by coffee enthusiasts, April 2020
Coffee Consumption Frequency
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- Cold coffee drinks are not habitually consumed
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- Figure 27: Coffee consumption frequency, among consumers of each coffee format, April 2020
Coffee Behaviors
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- Younger consumers experiment with brands
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- Figure 28: Coffee behaviors, April 2020
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- Figure 29: Coffee behaviors, by generation, April 2020
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- Figure 30: Coffee behaviors, by coffee enthusiasts, April 2020
Coffee Purchase Drivers
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- Variation appeals to coffee enthusiasts
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- Figure 31: Coffee purchase drivers, by coffee enthusiasts, April 2020
Coffee Attribute Interest
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- Creamer can enhance the functionality of coffee
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- Figure 32: Coffee attribute interest, any coffee, April 2020
- Younger women respond to functional claims
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- Figure 33: Coffee attribute interest, any coffee, by generation, April 2020
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- Figure 34: Coffee attribute interest, any coffee, by gender/age, April 2020
- Coffee enthusiasts want it all
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- Figure 35: Coffee attribute interest, any coffee, by coffee enthusiast, April 2020
- Single-cup espresso brands can differentiate through functionality
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- Figure 36: Coffee attribute interest, retail, by coffee types consumed, April 2020
Coffee Attitudes
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- Consumers will still spend money on premium coffee
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- Figure 37: Coffee attitudes, April 2020
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- Figure 38: Coffee attitudes, by gender/age, April 2020
- Retail brands can connect with Gen Z but don’t forget Gen X
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- Figure 39: Coffee attitudes, by generation, April 2020
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- Figure 40: Coffee attitudes, by age/income, April 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee and RTD coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of RTD coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales of coffee and RTD coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales of coffee and RTD coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales of cream and creamer, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of creamer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales of cream and creamer, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of coffee and RTD coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of single-cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 56: Multi-outlet sales of RTD coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 57: Multi-outlet sales of cream and creamers, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of cream, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of creamers, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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