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Fish and Shellfish - US - November 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-23
The issues
Consumers limit fish and shellfish strengths to health
Figure 2: Protein perceptions, September 2018
Consumption frequency falls short of other proteins
Figure 3: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
Seafood lags behind other proteins in variety of consumption
Figure 4: Protein occasions, September 2018
Good participation, yet few species rise to the top
Figure 5: Fish and shellfish purchase, September 2018
The opportunities
Frozen and shelf-stable seafood shrug off the processed stigma
Figure 6: Storage type perceptions, September 2018
Getting direct with health can inspire frequency
Figure 7: Fish and shellfish attributes, September 2018
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Gains across segments result in modest category growth
Other animal proteins continue to hold price advantage
Trade war, overfishing threatens to intensify price hikes
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category continues to grow
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Sales increase across segments
Fresh
Frozen
Shelf-stable
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Expensive reputation compounded by rising costs
Figure 11: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein perceptions, September 2018
Figure 12: Changes in food price indices, August 2017-18
Meat alternatives
Foodservice a source of competition, inspiration
Figure 13: Menu incidence change of select fish and shellfish ingredients, Q3 2016-18
Figure 14: Menu incidence change of select seafood flavors, Q3 2016-18
MARKET FACTORS 
Escalating trade war threatens increased prices
Despite newfound focus on sustainability, overfishing still rampant
Labeling skepticism still causing confusion
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Private label dominates the category
StarKist innovation keeps Dongwon Industries on top
Sustainability, provenance claims gain traction
Faux fish has potential
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH
Store brands hold commanding market share lead
Dongwon leads fragmented school of fish and shellfish companies
Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of fish and shellfish, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
WHAT’S WORKING?
StarKist’s diverse portfolio of products
Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable fish, by StarKist total brand and products, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 17: StarKist TV Advertisement – “Tuna Creations BOLD”
Private label options
Figure 18: Purchase intent of fish and shellfish brands, select store brands, January 2017-September 2018
Figure 19: Purchase intent of fish and shellfish brands, select store brands with transparency claims, January 2017-September 2018
Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of total, frozen, shelf-stable, and fresh fish and shellfish, by private label, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Sourcing, sustainability claims to offset mislabelling issues
Figure 21: Launches of fish and shellfish, by select transparency claims, 2015-18*
Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of fish and shellfish, by select brands with transparency claims, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Premium pricing stalls small frozen brands
Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by other brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of fish and shellfish, by select smaller frozen fish and shellfish brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
WHAT’S NEXT?
Faux fish
Simple solutions
Figure 25: Launches of fish and shellfish, by select convenience claims, 2015-18*
Meal kits and prepared meals
Breaking into snacking
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Widespread purchase, yet shallow extension of species
Seafood consumption falls short of other proteins
Fish and shellfish occasions are limited
Fresh associated with nutrition, frozen with convenience
FISH AND SHELLFISH PURCHASE
Salmon, tuna, and tilapia outpace most species
Figure 26: Fish purchase, September 2018
Shrimp drives shellfish purchase
Figure 27: Shellfish purchase, September 2018
Frozen just as popular as fresh in category
Figure 28: Fish and shellfish type purchased, September 2018
Younger men, fathers most likely to buy fish and shellfish
Figure 29: Fish and shellfish purchase, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
FISH AND SHELLFISH CONSUMPTION AND FREQUENCY
Fish and shellfish trail other proteins in consumption, frequency
Figure 30: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
Younger men, fathers eat fish and shellfish most often
Figure 31: Protein consumption frequency – any fish or shellfish, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
Taste and health drive frequent consumption
Figure 32: Reasons for frequent consumption, September 2018
Affordability is a key barrier
Figure 33: Reasons for infrequent consumption, September 2018
Dislike for taste, smell lead reasons for non-consumption
Figure 34: Reasons for non-consumption, September 2018
Figure 35: Reasons for non-consumption, September 2018
STORAGE TYPE PERCEPTIONS
Fresh wins on nutrition; frozen, shelf-stable deliver on convenience
Figure 36: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Storage type perceptions, September 2018
Figure 37: Storage type perceptions, September 2018
Younger consumers still getting sea legs in seafood prep
Figure 38: Storage type perceptions – Easy to prepare, by age, September 2018
PROTEIN PERCEPTIONS
Seafood strengths tied to health; brands should double down
Figure 39: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein perceptions, September 2018
Figure 40: Protein perceptions, September 2018
Fish more associated with health, shellfish with taste
Figure 41: Protein perceptions – Fish and shellfish, by age, September 2018
PROTEIN OCCASIONS
Disrupt limited fish and shellfish occasions to boost frequency
Figure 42: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein occasions, September 2018
Figure 43: Protein occasions, September 2018
FISH AND SHELLFISH ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS
Seafood has inherent healthy reputation, perhaps even without clean labeling
Figure 44: Fish and shellfish attitudes and behaviors, September 2018
Cleaner label will resonate with consumers 35+
Figure 45: Fish and shellfish attitudes and behaviors – Additives/preservatives, by age, September 2018
Younger consumers, parents turn to category for special occasions
Figure 46: Fish and shellfish attitudes and behaviors – Special occasions, by age and parental status, September 2018
FISH AND SHELLFISH ATTRIBUTES
Health, value are prioritized
Figure 47: Fish and shellfish attributes, September 2018
Range of health, natural, and value attributes reach bulk of consumers
Figure 48: TURF analysis – Fish and shellfish attributes, September 2018
Older consumers focused on claims, younger consumers on easy prep
Figure 49: Fish and shellfish attributes – Wild caught, no additives/preservatives, flavored, and pre-cooked, by gender and age, September 2018
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
TURF Methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 52: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-23
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
Figure 59: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 60: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
Figure 61: US supermarket sales of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2013-18
Figure 62: US sales of fish and shellfish through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of fresh fish and shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 64: Multi-outlet sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

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