Fast Casual Restaurants - US - February 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Fast casuals struggle to capture dinner appeal
Figure 1: Restaurant segment preference, by dining occasion, November 2017
Chipotle needs to make an effort to reach broader demographics
Figure 2: Chipotle visitation, by gender and age, November 2017
The opportunities
Premium beverages allow fast casuals to serve more dayparts
Figure 3: Fast casual beverage areas of interest, by gender and age, November 2017
Seafood a key menu opportunity for fast casuals
Figure 4: Fast casual restaurant interest, November 2017
Fast casuals can promote premium snacks
Figure 5: Interest in snacking at fast food and fast casual restaurants, by age/household income and socioeconomic status, November 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Staying afloat with iGen trends
QSRs combat fast casuals on the definition of value
Quality control becomes more proactive
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
The competitive landscape:
Legacy segments bring a focus back to tradition
Beverage operators accentuate key social experiences
Retailers aim to make grocery shopping more than a routine chore
Figure 6: At home and away from home food sales, November 2014-November 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
Maintaining quality when fresh, real produce is the norm
Pinpointing iGen preferences
Ride sharing is the norm
International cuisine is less foreign
Health is a lifestyle
KEY TRENDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Keep your eyes on the fast fine segment
The flexibility of the common bowl
Specialty concepts go mainstream
FAST CASUAL MENU ANALYSIS
Moving beyond soda
Figure 7: Menu incidence of non-alcoholic beverages in fast casuals, O4 2015-Q4 2017
Figure 8: Menu incidence of alcoholic beverages in fast casuals, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Middle Eastern and Mediterranean cuisine are having a moment in the spotlight
Figure 9: Growth and decline in menu incidence of menu item cuisine types in fast casuals, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
Avocado momentum is not slowing down yet
Figure 10: Growth and decline in menu incidence of ingredients in fast casuals, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
The fast fine movement gains steam
What is it?
Why is it growing?
Restaurants leading the way:
What’s next for this category?
The evolution of the “bowl” meal
What is it?
Why is it growing?
Restaurants leading the way:
What’s next?
The food hall expansion opportunity
What is it?
Why is it growing?
Restaurants leading the way:
What’s next?
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
When a mission isn’t enough to rely on
Words without trust lose their meaning
Certain menu items aren’t meant to be promoted with the “real food” halo
WHAT’S NEXT?
Former “niche” cuisines will continue to gain mainstream attention
Figure 11: Social media sentiment for “by Chloe,” January 2017-January 2018
Figure 12: Social media persona for “by Chloe,” January 2017-January 2018
Figure 13: Social media word cloud for “by Chloe,” January 2017-January 2018
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Panera Bread maintains strong momentum
Chipotle visitors are satisfied overall
Parents are more likely to consider fast casuals an ideal dinner spot
FAST CASUAL VISITATION 
Panera Bread leads in visitation after a year of momentum
Figure 14: Fast casual restaurant visitation, November 2017
Figure 15: Fast casual restaurant visitation, by region, November 2017
Chipotle’s core consumers are young men, but the chain needs to reach broader demographics
Figure 16: Chipotle restaurant visitation, by gender and age, November 2017
Generation X can’t be overshadowed at Panera Bread
Figure 17: Panera Bread visitation, by gender and age, November 2017
Figure 18: Panera Bread visitation, by age and HH income, November 2017
SATISFACTION ACROSS CHIPOTLE, PANERA BREAD, AND NOODLES & COMPANY
Methodology
Overall satisfaction for Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & Company
Figure 19: Key drivers of satisfaction with Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & company, November 2017
Despite Chipotle’s issues, consumers who visit the chain are satisfied
Figure 20: Key drivers of satisfaction with Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Noodles & company, November 2017
Panera Bread is hitting all the right notes
Figure 21: Key drivers of satisfaction at Panera Bread, November 2017
Noodles & Company could replace appetizers with snack-based offerings
Figure 22: Key drivers of satisfaction at Noodles & Company, November 2017
FAST CASUAL ASSOCIATIONS 
Traditional fast casual associations remain strong
Figure 23: Fast casual associations, November 2017
iGens are accustomed to build-your-own concepts more so than other generations
Figure 24: Fast casual associations, by generation, November 2017
Real food and quality ingredients are equally important to highlight
Figure 25: Fast casual  associations, by generation, November 2017
Fast casuals present a dinner opportunity for families, Black diners
Figure 26: Fast casual associations, by area, November 2017
Figure 27: Fast casual associations, by parents and nonparents, November 2017
Figure 28: Fast casual associations, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
DINING OUT OCCASIONS BY RESTAURANT SEGMENT
The formality of dinner is not ancient news quite yet
Figure 29: Correspondence analysis – Occasion preferences, November 2017
Figure 30: Restaurant segment preference, by dining occasion, November 2017
Fast casuals can create a niche for less-traditional dining occasions
Figure 31: Happy hour restaurant segment preferences, among select demographics, November 2017
Figure 32: Interest in snacking at fast food and fast casual restaurants, by age/household income and socioeconomic status, November 2017
Weeknight dinners present more opportunities than social weekend dinners, but younger consumers are more open to both
Figure 33: Restaurant segment preference for dinner on a Friday night, by generation and location, November 2017
Figure 34: Restaurant segment preference for a weeknight dinner, by parents and nonparents, November 2017
FAST CASUAL RESTAURANT TYPE INTEREST
Is 2018 going to be the year of seafood?
Figure 35: Fast casual restaurant type interest, November 2017
Figure 36: Fast casual restaurant interest, by fast casual restaurant interest, November 2017
Women crave more healthful restaurants while men prefer comfort and indulgence
Figure 37: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by gender, November 2017
Hispanics and Asians crave fast casuals they can identify with
Figure 38: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
Pizza love is strong among iGens
Figure 39: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by generations, November 2017
Fast casuals expose consumers in a lower socioeconomic status to various cuisines
Figure 40: Fast casual restaurant type interest, by socioeconomic status, November 2017
FAST CASUAL OPPORTUNITIES
Transparency is still critical for fast casuals
Figure 41: Fast casual opportunities, November 2017
It’s time to look beyond the soda fountain
Figure 42: Fast casual beverage opportunities, by age and gender, November 2017
Figure 43: Fast casual opportunities, by parents and nonparents, November 2017
Family-style meals might appeal to Asian and Hispanic families
Figure 44: Fast casual opportunities, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
A note on socioeconomic levels
APPENDIX – INFEGY METHODOLOGY
Theme definitions
APPENDIX – DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES
Figure 45: Population by generation, 2013-23
Figure 46: Generations, by race and Hispanic origin, 2018
Figure 47: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2018
APPENDIX – KEY DRIVER ANALYSIS
Interpretation of results
Figure 48: Level of satisfaction with Chipotle, Panera Bread, Noodles & Company – Key driver output, November 2017
Figure 49: Level of satisfaction with Chipotle – Key driver output, November 2017
Figure 50: Level of satisfaction with Panera Bread – Key driver output, November 2017
Figure 51: Level of satisfaction with Noodles & Company – Key driver output, November 2017
APPENDIX – CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS 
Methodology