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Fish and Shellfish - US - November 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Sales stagnate in 2016, amid years of increases
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
Flavor deterring some
Figure 2: Reasons for purchase, September 2017
The opportunities
Suggestions could encourage purchase
Figure 3: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish preparation, any agree, by age, September 2017
Packaging improvement potential
Figure 4: Increasing purchase, September 2017
Hispanic Millennials may embrace affordable, sustainable options
Figure 5: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sales slow, growth should resume
Frozen, shelf-stable face dim sales future, brighter prospects for fresh
Sales of competitive proteins fall
Regulators encourage fish consumption
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sales stagnate in 2016, amid years of increases
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Fresh factoring significantly in fish favorites
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Poultry preferences
Figure 9: Consumption frequency, September 2017
Figure 10: Changes in food price indexes, August 2015-16
Lower red meat sales
Figure 11: US city average price per lb of 100% ground beef, Jan 2010-Aug 2016
Fake fish attempts to leverage interest in meat alternatives
MARKET FACTORS 
Health concerns could lead to fish consumption
FDA, EPA fish consumption advice
Mislabeling reputation could impact entire category
Price-fixing scandal could negatively impact key shelf-stable brands
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Fresh flourishes in a largely stagnant category
Getting fresh
Shelf-stable struggles
Free-from claims gain environmental boost in fish/shellfish
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH
Private label dominates market share, as StarKist merges health, flavor, and convenience
Sales of fish and shellfish by company
Figure 12: MULO sales of fish and shellfish, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Fresher options fare well
Figure 13: Notable fresh fish introductions, 2017
Figure 14: Natural, convenient, environmentally friendly new fish/shellfish products, 2012-17
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Declines among most shelf-stable brands, save for StarKist
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 16: StarKist Kid's Creations Bacon Ranch Flavored Lightly Marinated Premium Chunk Light Tuna
WHAT’S NEXT?
Free-from claims merging with environmental awareness
Figure 17: Better-for-you, environmental claims on fish/shellfish introductions, 2016-17
Figure 18: Fish/shellfish launches with free-from and environmental claims, 2017
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Taste draws most consumers
Taste turns some away
Vast majority buy fish at supermarkets
Avoiding hormones, antibiotics in fish/shellfish
Nutritional, developmental boost draws parental interest
Lures for fish/shellfish
PURCHASE 
Fresh or frozen, fish remains most popular
Figure 19: Purchase of fish/shellfish, September 2017
Mass merchandisers, natural supermarkets, online resonating strongly with younger consumers
Figure 20: Purchase location, by age, September 2017
Figure 21: Purchase location – Online, by age, September 2017
Youngest consumers largely avoid category in grocery
Figure 22: Purchase of fish/shellfish, by age, September 2017
Hispanic Millennials more likely to opt for fresh fish and shellfish
Figure 23: Purchase of fish/shellfish, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
PURCHASE REASONS 
Taste leads purchase factors, health attributes factor strongly
Figure 24: Reasons for purchase, September 2017
Taste resonating with older consumers in particular
Figure 25: Reasons for purchase, by age, September 2017
Health, ease of cooking factor differently by race
Figure 26: Reasons for purchase, by race, September 2017
Hispanic non-Millennials regard category as healthier than other proteins
Figure 27: Reasons for purchase, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
Taste resonates most strongly across all segments
Figure 28: Purchase of fish/shellfish, by reasons for purchase, August 2017
REASONS FOR AVOIDANCE 
Taste, aroma, price top reasons for avoiding fish/shellfish
Figure 29: Reasons for avoidance, September 2017
Taste, aroma deterring younger consumers; older consumers more likely to eat in restaurants
Figure 30: Reasons for avoidance, by age, September 2017
PURCHASE LOCATION 
Supermarkets remain the biggest fish/shellfish resource
Figure 31: Purchase location, September 2017
Parents more likely to buy fish at mass merchandisers, club stores
Figure 32: Purchase location, by number of children under 18 in household, September 2017
IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES 
Quality factors most strongly in both frozen and fresh choices
Figure 33: Important attributes of frozen options, September 2017
Figure 34: Important attributes of fresh options, September 2017
Attribute importance varies across age ranges
Figure 35: Important attributes of any fish/shellfish, by age, September 2017
Consumers seek to avoid hormones, antibiotics in fish/shellfish
Figure 36: Important free-from attributes of fish/shellfish, September 2017
Nutritional aspects resonating with Hispanic Millennials
Figure 37: Important attributes of any fish/shellfish, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
IMPROVEMENT OPPORTUNITIES
Packaging improvements could boost category
Figure 38: Improvement opportunities, September 2017
Flavor, health improvements could draw parents
Figure 39: Improvement opportunities, by number of children under 18 in household, September 2017
Packaging innovation potential in all segments
Figure 40: Purchase of fish/shellfish, by improvement opportunities, August 2017
Packaging improvements would resonate
Figure 41: TURF analysis – Improvement opportunities among all consumers, September 2017
Figure 42: TURF analysis – Improvement opportunities among fish/shellfish consumers, September 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARD PREPARATION 
Consumers confident in fish/shellfish preparation
Figure 43: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish preparation, September 2017
Suggestions could influence purchase
Figure 44: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish preparation, any agree, by age, September 2017
Hispanic Millennials express confidence in fish preparation
Figure 45: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish preparation, any agree, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARD FISH/SHELLFISH AND HEALTH 
Consumers largely perceive fish as better-for-you
Figure 46: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish and health, September 2017
Fish’s healthy attributes lost on younger consumers
Figure 47: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish and health, by age, September 2017
Parents’ positive health regard for fish
Figure 48: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish and health, by number of children under 18 in household, September 2017
Hispanics and the health of fish/shellfish
Figure 49: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish and health, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
INCREASING USAGE OF FISH/SHELLFISH
Lower price, sustainability could lure consumers to fish
Figure 50: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish, September 2017
Younger consumers seeking affordability, sustainability
Figure 51: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish, by age, September 2017
Price, sustainability would resonate with Hispanic Millennials
Figure 52: Attitudes toward fish/shellfish, by Hispanic origin, September 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 54: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 62: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 63: US supermarket sales of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 64: US sales of fish and shellfish through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 65: MULO sales of fish and shellfish, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 66: MULO sales of fresh fish and shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 67: MULO sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 68: MULO sales of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 69: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by gender, fall 2016
Figure 70: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by age, fall 2016
Figure 71: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by race, fall 2016
Figure 72: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by Hispanic origin, fall 2016
Figure 73: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by household income, fall 2016
Figure 74: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by education, fall 2016
Figure 75: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by size of household, fall 2016
Figure 76: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by parental status and number of children in household, fall 2016
Figure 77: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by region, fall 2016
Figure 78: Fresh/frozen fish/seafood usage, by gender and age, fall 2016

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