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Beer and Craft Beer - US - October 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Dollar sales of beer slow
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking less than they were last year
Figure 2: Change in beer consumption, August 2017
Leading light beer segment experiences sharp declines, craft slows
Figure 3: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20 (fore)
The opportunities
Flavored launches grow
Figure 4: Beer launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
Company size does not play a huge role in perception of quality
Figure 5: Beer statements – Ownership, August 2017
A quarter of beer drinkers take pride in trying different kinds of beer
Figure 6: Beer statements – Identification, August 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Beer sales slow
Light beer continues to lead volume sales, but sees declines
Craft continues to grow, but at a slower pace
Beer continues to lead alcohol consumption
Category struggles with poor perception of taste
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Dollar sales of beer slow
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2012-22
Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Light beer continues to lead volume sales of beer, but sees declines
Volume sales of imported beer grow by a third from 2012-17
Super-premium/premium segment sees declines
Craft continues to grow, but at a slower pace
Volume sales in the popular beer segment decline by 16% from 2012-17
Figure 12: Share of volume sales of beer, by segment, 2017 (est)
Figure 13: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20 (fore)
Success of hard cider sours
Figure 14: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Volume sales of alcohol outpace sales of beer
Figure 15: Total US volume sales of beverage alcohol 2012-16
Figure 16: Total US volume sales of beverage alcohol 2012-16
Vast majority of alcohol consumption is off-premise
Figure 17: US volume sales of beverage alcohol, by channel, 2012-16
Figure 18: US volume sales of beverage alcohol, by channel, 2012-16
Figure 19: US volume sales of beer and FMBs, by channel, 2012 and 2016
Figure 20: US volume sales of beer and FMBs, by channel, 2012-16
Beer continues to lead alcohol consumption
Figure 21: Alcohol consumption, August 2017
The majority of drinkers drink 2-5 drink types
Figure 22: Repertoire of alcohol consumption – Any drink, August 2017
45% of respondents who only drink one type of alcohol drink beer
Figure 23: Repertoire of alcohol consumption – Any drink, by 1 type consumed, August 2017
Beer still leads as the easy option
Figure 24: Correspondence analysis – Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, August 2017
Figure 25: Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, August 2017
Beer has a strong association with refreshment…
Figure 26: Attitudes toward beer, March 2017
…but struggles with poor perception of taste
Craft beer performs slightly better in terms of flavor
Figure 27: Attitudes toward craft beer, March 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
As acquisitions continue, the craft industry doubles down on the divide
42% of US adults are currently trying to lose weight
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
A-B InBev commands largest share of MULO sales
Constellation sees strong gains at MULO
Flavored launches grow
Cans gain ground on bottles
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF BEER
A-B InBev commands largest share of MULO sales
Sales of beer by company
Figure 28: Share of beer sales, by company, 52 weeks ending Jul 9, 2017
Figure 29: MULO sales of beer and craft beer, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Imported beer sees strong growth
Figure 30: MULO sales of domestic and imported beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Flavored launches grow
Figure 31: Beer launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
Figure 32: Cider launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
Cans continue to see strong growth
Figure 33: Beer launches, by pack type, 2012-17*
In their words
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
MULO sales of cider decline by 7%
Figure 34: MULO sales of alcoholic cider, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Lager menuings lose share to IPAs and bold flavor beers
Figure 35: Leading beer styles featured on restaurant menus, Q2 2016-Q2 2017
WHAT’S NEXT?
IPAs have opened the door for a wider focus on hops
Unfiltered/unpasteurized beer could convey natural cues
Sours hit a sweet spot
Encouraging the use of beer in cocktails
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
61% of beer drinkers are men
A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking less than they were last year
Half of beer drinkers drink craft offerings
Brand is the leading factor in beer choice
Company size does not play a huge role in perception of quality
WHO’S DRINKING BEER?
61% of beer drinkers are men
Figure 36: Share of alcohol consumption, by gender, August 2017
50% of beer drinkers are between the ages of 22-44
Figure 37: Share of alcohol consumption, by age, August 2017
A strong perception of affordability allows beer to appeal to lower earning HHs
Figure 38: Share of alcohol consumption, by HH income, August 2017
CHANGE IN BEER CONSUMPTION
A quarter of beer drinkers are drinking less than they were last year
Figure 39: Change in beer consumption, August 2017
Highest percentage of consumers looking to reduce calories
Figure 40: Reasons for drinking less beer, August 2017
Craft and flavored options help grow beer consumption
Figure 41: Reasons for drinking more beer, August 2017
TYPES OF BEER CONSUMED
Domestic v. import
A slightly higher percentage of consumers drink domestic beer
Figure 42: Types of beer consumed – Domestic v. imported, August 2017
Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to drink imports
Figure 43: Types of beer consumed – Domestic v. imported, by Hispanic origin, August 2017
Craft
Half of beer drinkers drink craft beer
Figure 44: Types of beer consumed – Craft, August 2017
Three quarters of “true craft” drinkers also drink “craft-style” beer
Figure 45: Types of beer consumed – Craft, by types of beer consumed, August 2017
Younger drinkers open to craft-style options
Figure 46: Types of beer consumed – Craft, by age, August 2017
Other attributes
Less than a third of beer drinkers are drinking light beer
Figure 47: Types of beer consumed – Other attributes, August 2017
Women are strong targets for flavored beer
Figure 48: Types of beer consumed – Other attributes, by gender, August 2017
Flavored options find strong appeal among younger drinkers
Figure 49: Types of beer consumed – Other attributes, by age, August 2017
IMPORTANT FACTORS WHEN CHOOSING A BEER
Brand is the leading factor in beer choice
Figure 50: Important factors when choosing a beer, August 2017
Three quarters of “true craft” drinkers are driven by style
Figure 51: Important factors when choosing a beer, by craft consumption, August 2017
Younger consumers are driven by low price, open to suggestions
Figure 52: Share of beer purchase, by age, Spring 2017
Figure 53: Important factors when choosing a beer, by age, August 2017
Lower income earners are strongly driven by price
Figure 54: Share of beer purchase, by HH income, Spring 2017
Figure 55: Important factors when choosing a beer, by HH income, August 2017
BEER STATEMENTS
Company size does not play a huge role in perception of quality
Figure 56: Beer statements – Ownership, August 2017
In their words
Brand plays a slightly larger role in identification than style
Beer drinkers exhibit some brand loyalty
Figure 57: Beer consumption, by beer consumption, Spring 2017
Figure 58: Beer statements – Identification, August 2017
“True craft” drinkers have high opinions of small brand, but don’t begrudge large companies
Figure 59: Beer statements – Ownership, August 2017
Product trial resonates with craft drinkers; style also finds appeal
Figure 60: Beer statements – Identification, by craft beer consumption, August 2017
35% of 25-34s take pride in product trial
Figure 61: Beer statements – Identification, by age, August 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Correspondence analysis methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 62: Total US volume sales of light beer, 2012-22
Figure 63: Total US volume sales of super-premium and premium beer, 2012-22
Figure 64: Total US volume sales of imported beer, 2012-22
Figure 65: Total US volume sales of craft beer, 2012-22
Figure 66: Total US volume sales of popular beer, 2012-22
Figure 67: Total US volume sales of ice beer, 2012-22
Figure 68: Total US volume sales of malt liquor, 2012-22
Figure 69: US volume sales of domestic beer, by form, 2012-16
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 70: Sales of beer, by company, 2016 and 2017
Figure 71: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16
Figure 72: Leading beer styles featured on restaurant menus, Q2 2016-Q2 2017
Figure 73: Beer launches, by leading claims, 2012-17*
Figure 74: Cider launches, by leading claims, 2012-17*
Figure 75: Beer launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
Figure 76: Cider launches, by leading flavors, 2012-17*
Figure 77: Beer launches, by pack type, 2012-17*
Figure 78: Cider launches, by pack type, 2012-17*
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 79: Regular domestic beer consumption (not light/low-calorie), 2013-17
Figure 80: Brands of regular domestic beer (not light/low-calorie) consumed, 2013-17
Figure 81: Imported beer consumption, 2013-17
Figure 82: Types of imported beer consumed, 2013-17
Figure 83: Brands of imported beer consumed, 2013-17
Figure 84: Craft/microbrewed beer consumption, 2013-17
Figure 85: Brands of craft/microbrewed beer consumed, 2013-17
Figure 86: Malt liquor consumption, 2013-17
Figure 87: Brands of hard cider/craft cider consumed, 2016-17

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