Yellow Fats and Edible Oils - UK - September 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Return to value sales growth in 2017
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2012-22
Declining bread sales affecting butter and spreads
Prices of olive oil and butter rise
Ageing population more worried about saturated fat
Companies and brands
Own-label makes gains in yellow fats
Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value, 2016/17*
Filippo Berio sees dip in olive oil sales
Focus on natural and dairy-free products in yellow fats NPD
Spray oil launches tap into health and convenience trends
Coconut oils being joined by avocado oils
The consumer
More than nine in 10 buy butter and spreads
Being spreadable and favourite taste most important factors
Figure 3: Factors influencing choice of butter/spread for spreading, July 2017
Strong demand for versatility in edible oils
Three in 10 would pay more to support British farmers
Figure 4: Product attributes worth paying more for, July 2017
Details of regional origin can increase appeal
‘Healthy’ and ‘pure’ key strengths for olive oil
Figure 5: Correspondence analysis: perceptions of different types of edible oils, July 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Range of health angles for brands to tap into in yellow fats and oils
The facts
The implications
Scope for tackling declining usage with new promotions
The facts
The implications
Opportunities for adding consumer value in butter, spreads and oils
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Slowdown in downward trend in sales
2017 butter sales getting boost from higher prices
Sales of spreads continue to decline
Edible oils see a return to growth
Declining bread sales affecting butter and spreads
Rise in commodity prices for olive oil
Wholesale butter prices have also been increasing
Interest in cooking and baking important to market
Ageing population more worried about saturated fat
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Slowdown in downward trend in sales
Figure 6: UK retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2012-22*
Figure 7: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2012-22*
Butter value sales getting boost from higher prices, but volumes hit
Figure 8: UK retail value and volume sales of butter, 2012-22
Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of butter, 2012-22
Sales of spreads continue to decline
Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, 2012-22
Figure 11: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of spreads, 2012-22
Edible oils see a return to growth
Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, 2012-22
Figure 13: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of edible oils, 2012-22
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Butter sales boosted in 2017 by higher prices
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of yellow fats, by segment, 2015-17
Speciality oils taking a larger share of sales
Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, by type, 2015-17
MARKET DRIVERS
Declining bread sales are affecting butter and spreads
Rise in commodity prices for olive oil
Wholesale butter prices have also been increasing
Interest in cooking and baking important to market
Ageing population more worried about saturated fat
Figure 16: Trends in age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Own-label makes gains in yellow fats
Cooking oils dominated by own-label
Filippo Berio sees dip in olive oil sales
Oils account for the majority of new launches
Bigger focus on natural products
Spray oils tapping into health and convenience trends
Coconut oils being joined by avocado oils
Fall in 2016 advertising
Lurpak has strongest reputation for quality
Flora seen as most healthy brand
MARKET SHARE
Own-label makes gains in yellow fats
Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 18: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Cooking oils dominated by own-label
Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking oils market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking oil market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Filippo Berio sees dip in olive oil sales
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Own-label sales of speciality oils grow
Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail speciality oils market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 24: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail speciality oils market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Oils account for the majority of new launches
Figure 25: New product launches in the UK butter, spreads and edible oils market, 2012-17
Bigger focus on natural and environmentally-friendly products
Figure 26: New product launches in the UK butter and spreads market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2016), 2012-17
Bertolli puts focus on butters for cooking
Regional butters tap into interest in provenance
Morrison’s extends ‘For Farmers’ range into butter
Unilever extends Flora ProActive with Expert range with added vitamins
Choice of dairy-free spreads increases
First spreadable goats butter launched
Premium and all-natural push in oils in 2017
Figure 27: New product launches in the UK edible oils market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2016), 2012-17
Spray oils tapping into health and convenience trends
Coconut oils getting more retail listings
Avocado oil the latest big thing in speciality oils
Focus on quality and flavour in olive oil
Rapeseed oil also seeing premium launches
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Fall in 2016 advertising spending
Figure 28: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and edible oils, 2012-17
Figure 29: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and edible oils, by category, 2013-17
Arla and Unilever the biggest advertisers
Figure 30: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and edible oils*, by advertiser, 2013-17
Flora is the most heavily-promoted brand
Figure 31: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and oils, by advertiser and brand, 2016
Anchor’s new ‘British’ look to be supported by a £4.5 million campaign
Lurpak advocates ‘naturalness’
Lurpak continues to challenge new consumers with ‘Game On, Cooks’ campaign
Flora focuses on ‘Powered by Plants’ message
Flora ProActiv unveils Expert Range
Bertolli recipe videos promote authentic Italian cooking
Stork announces charity tie up
Frylight announces launch of £5 million multi-channel campaign
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, July 2017
Key brand metrics
Figure 33: Key metrics for selected brands, July 2017
Brand attitudes: Lurpak stands for consistently high quality
Figure 34: Attitudes, by brand, July 2017
Brand personality: Lurpak engaging strongly with consumers
Figure 35: Brand personality – Macro image, July 2017
Flora seen as most healthy brand
Figure 36: Brand personality – Micro image, July 2017
Brand analysis
Lurpak has the strongest reputation for quality
Figure 37: User profile of Lurpak, July 2017
Anchor stands for consistent quality but seen as less innovative
Figure 38: User profile of Anchor, July 2017
Flora has strong association with health and wellbeing
Figure 39: User profile of Flora, July 2017
Bertolli has scope to increase usage through focus on health
Figure 40: User profile of Bertolli, July 2017
Clover lacks standout in yellow fats market
Figure 41: User profile of Clover, July 2017
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
More than nine in 10 buy butter and spreads
Nearly eight in 10 buy edible oils
Being spreadable and favourite taste most important
Less frying and buying of bread hitting sales
Meeting demand for versatility in edible oils
Three in 10 would pay more to support British farmers
Details of regional origin can increase appeal
Being seen as healthy and pure the key strengths for olive oil
Lack of awareness of attributes of rapeseed and avocado oils
BUYING OF YELLOW FATS
More than nine in 10 buy butter or spreads
Figure 42: Types of butter and spreads bought in the last 3 months, July 2017
A quarter have bought at least three types of spreads in the last three months
Figure 43: Number of different types of butter and spreads bought in last 3 months, July 2017
Younger appeal of spreadable butter
“Buttery taste” an important purchase driver
BUYING OF EDIBLE OILS
Nearly eight in 10 buy edible oils
Figure 44: Types of edible liquid oils and solid oils/fats bought in the last 3 months, July 2017
Nearly half of people buy more than one type
Figure 45: Number of different types of edible oils bought in last 3 months, July 2017
Vegetable, olive and sunflower oils dominate
FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF BUTTER/SPREAD
Being spreadable from fridge and favourite taste most important
Figure 46: Factors influencing choice of butter/spread for spreading, July 2017
Being lower in fat also an important consideration
No artificial ingredients another selling point
USAGE AND BUYING BEHAVIOUR
Less frying and buying of bread bad for market
Figure 47: Usage and buying behaviour in relation to yellow fats and edible oils, July 2017
Has the home baking bubble burst?
Meeting demand for versatility and quality in edible oils
PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES MOST LIKELY TO ADD VALUE
Three in 10 would pay more to support British farmers
Figure 48: Product attributes worth paying more for, July 2017
Higher animal welfare standards can also add value
Health benefits justify a price premium for a fifth of buyers
ATTITUDES TOWARDS BUTTER, SPREADS AND EDIBLE OILS
Details of regional origin can increase appeal
Figure 49: Attitudes towards butter/spreads and edible oils, July 2017
Small bottles or packs can encourage experimentation
PERCEPTIONS OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF EDIBLE OILS
Olive oil seen as the most healthy edible oil
Figure 50: Correspondence analysis: perceptions of different types of edible oils, July 2017
Figure 51: Perceptions of different edible oils, July 2017
Being seen as healthy and pure the key strengths of olive oil
Versatility biggest strength for sunflower oil
Lack of awareness of attributes of rapeseed and avocado oils
Coconut oil seen as a ‘trendy’ choice
Methodology
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2012-22
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of butter, 2012-22
Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of butter, 2012-22
Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of butter, 2012-22
Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of spreads, 2012-22
Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of spreads, 2012-22
Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of spreads, 2012-22
Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of edible oils, 2012-22
Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of edible oils, 2012-22
Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of edible oils, 2012-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 62: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail butter market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 63: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail butter market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 64: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail margarine and spreads market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 65: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail margarine and spreads market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 66: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking fats market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Figure 67: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail cooking fats market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17