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Vitamins, Minerals & Supplements - US - September 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Category is growing, though at slower rates
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of vitamins, minerals and supplements, at current prices, 2011-22
Several purchase factors are at play making purchase decisions challenging
Figure 2: Select VMS purchase influencers, any rank (net), June 2017
Trust and expense are barriers despite benefit perceptions
Figure 3: Select attitudes towards vitamins, minerals, and supplements, June 2016
The opportunities
Enhance online shopping to ease consumer frustrations
Figure 4: Select statements about VMS shopping experience, June 2017
Emphasize the role of VMS as part of a healthy lifestyle
Figure 5: Select attitudes and opinions about health and medicine, January 2016- March 2017 and select attitudes towards vitamins, minerals, and supplements, June 2017
Widen natural and organic offerings to leverage consumer preferences
Figure 6: Select VMS claims perceptions and select purchase influencers- any rank (net), June 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Market is growing, but at a slower rate
All segments post gains, but below last year’s growth
Scientific studies and legislation impact the industry
Struggles to eat healthy, high consumer confidence, and Hispanic growth bode well for VMS market
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Slowing growth shows beginning signs of a maturing market
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
All segments post gains but see slowed momentum
Lack of “buzz,” lapsed usage hinder vitamin sales potential
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Minerals experience lower growth hindered by calcium
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
New studies highlight positive impact of VMS
VMS over-exposures among children commands action
WIC Improvement Act could boost sales while expanding access
MARKET FACTORS 
Struggles to eat healthy suggest opportunity for VMS
High consumer confidence at the start of 2017 bodes well for VMS sales
Figure 10: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007-June 2017
Hispanic population growth could boost herbal supplements
Figure 11: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2012-22
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Carlyle, private label struggle while Pharmavite grows
Smaller brands, select liquid VMS, and online sales grow market
Private label, long-standing supplements and multivitamins miss the mark
Amazon Elements, new online brands poised for growth
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF VITAMINS, MINERALS, AND SUPPLEMENTS
Largest manufacturer losing market share; “other” brands gaining
Successful segments help drive continued growth for Pharmavite
Cost savings not enough to drive private label purchasing
Figure 12: MULO sales of vitamins, minerals and supplements, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Smaller brands outpace average market growth
Various product attributes drive growth in liquid formats
Online VMS sales boom as users view it as easier
Figure 13: Walgreens email campaign, August 12, 2017
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Private label struggles to keep pace in changing brand matrix
Long-standing multivitamin and supplement brands struggle
Figure 14: MULO sales of select vitamin, mineral, and supplement brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016-17
Vitamints’ sales decline suggests the novelty has worn off
Figure 15: MULO sales of Centrum Vitamints, rolling 52 weeks 2016-17
WHAT’S NEXT?
Amazon’s Elements to become the next big brand?
Growth in self-diagnostic tests could help dispel efficacy doubt
New online brands overhaul VMS experience, poised for growth
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
More than half of adults are daily VMS users
Encourage e-commerce to ease in-store shopping frustrations
No one factor dominates purchase decisions at the shelf
Wide variety of product claims lessen the impact
Positive health perceptions don’t always outweigh barriers
Gummies are a nice-to-have rather than must-have
PRODUCT USAGE AND FREQUENCY
Most adults take a VMS and do so daily
Figure 16: VMS product usage and frequency, June 2017
Occasional use is common, but may be circumvented
Remind users of health benefits to avoid lapsed usage
Adults aged 25-44 use greater variety, but lack consistency
Figure 17: VMS product usage, any current use (net), by age, June 2017
Figure 18: Any vitamin or supplement use (net), by frequency, by age, June 2017
Younger population, lower skepticism drives usage among Hispanics
Figure 19: VMS product usage, any current use (net), by Hispanic origin, June 2017
SHOPPING EXPERIENCE
Stores should address frustrations to avoid missed sales
Purchase habits should be leveraged for greater loyalty
Online shopping a natural fit for VMS, should be emphasized
Figure 20: VMS shopping experience, June 2017
Shopping struggles ease as VMS users age
Figure 21: VMS shopping experience, agree, by age, June 2017
Opportunity to increase spend among Hispanics
Figure 22: VMS shopping experience, agree, by Hispanic origin, June 2017
PURCHASE INFLUENCERS 
External influencers
Doctor’s recommendation wields most influence over product choice
Online reviews have supplemental, but notable, influence in purchases
At-shelf influencers
Multiple factors dictate decisions at the shelf
Figure 23: VMS purchase influencers, any rank (net), June 2017
Product purchases become more consistent with age
Figure 24: VMS purchase influencers, any rank (net), by age, June 2017
English-speaking Hispanics more engaged in VMS purchases
Figure 25: VMS purchase influencers, any rank (net), by Hispanic origin, June 2017
In their words: VMS product selection
CLAIMS PERCEPTIONS
Category confusion drives interest in a variety of claims
Figure 26: VMS claims perceptions, June 2017
Purchase influencers impact claim perceptions
Figure 27: Select claims perceptions, by select purchase influencers – Any rank (net), July 2017
Adults aged 55+ more persuaded by specific needs than general health
Figure 28: Select VMS claims perceptions, by age, June 2017
Doctor recommended not as persuasive for Hispanics
Figure 29: Select VMS claims perceptions, by Hispanic origin, June 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARDS VITAMINS, MINERALS, AND SUPPLEMENTS
VMS have positive perceptions
Figure 30: Attitudes towards vitamins, minerals, and supplements, June 2017
Trust and expense are a tough pill to swallow for some
Figure 31: Average US retail price of health and wellness products, by category, at current prices, August 2016- August 2017
Figure 32: Product usage and frequency, by those who agree these products are expensive, June 2017
Users report satisfaction with current products
Younger adults report higher pill fatigue; trouble remembering to take
Figure 33: Attitudes towards vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by age, June 2017
Hispanics hold higher category trust
Figure 34: Attitudes towards vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by Hispanic origin, June 2017
PERCEPTIONS OF GUMMIES
Not a must-have, yet gummies do offer a nice break from pills
Flavor doesn’t determine gummy purchase decisions
Figure 35: Perceptions of gummies, June 2017
Younger adults embrace the fun and taste of gummies
Figure 36: Perceptions of gummies, by age, June 2017
Hispanic consumers more positive towards gummies
Figure 37: Perceptions of gummies, by Hispanic origin, June 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 38: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 39: Total US retail sales and forecast of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 40: Total US retail sales of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 41: Total US retail sales of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by channel, at current prices, 2012-16
Figure 42: Total US retail sales of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2016
Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of vitamins, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of minerals, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of supplements and herbs/botanicals, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of vitamins, minerals, and supplements, by segment, at current prices, 2017 (est)
Figure 47: Total US Sales growth and forecast of fish/Animal oils, at current prices, 2012-21(est)
Figure 48: Total US Sales growth and forecast of probiotics, at current prices, 2012-21(est)
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 49: MULO sales of vitamins, minerals and supplements, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 50: MULO sales of vitamins, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 51: MULO sales of minerals and supplements, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 52: Attitudes and opinions about health and medicine, January 2016- March 2017
Figure 53: Product usage repertoire groups, June 2017
Methodology
Figure 54: TURF Analysis–Claims perception, June 2017

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