Baby Durables - US - March 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Expected growth is minimal for baby durables market
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baby durables, at current prices, 2011-21
Shifts in composition of families and changing shopping habits
Figure 2: Select retailers shopped for baby durables, December 2016
Recalls negatively impact manufacturers
The opportunities
Driving growth through the internet
Figure 3: online behaviors and attitudes toward baby durables shopping, December 2016
Innovative ways of shopping
Figure 4: method of acquiring items – bought new, by gender and marital status, December 2016
Figure 5: method of acquiring items – Bought second hand, by gender and marital status, December 2016
Gifting is under-utilized
Figure 6: Baby durables bought new vs. received new on a registry, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Smaller family sizes leads to small growth in category
Delaying milestones means more money to spend, but less people to spend it on
The American family is changing
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Little growth expected in baby durables market
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baby durables, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby durables, at current prices, 2011-21
Market share by segment
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of baby durables, by segment, at current prices, 2016
MARKET FACTORS 
Changes in lifestyles and gender roles impact the American family
Birth rate trends amongst different demographics
Figure 10: Birth rates by year, 2006-15
Figure 11: Birth rates, by age of mother: United States, 2007, 2014 and 2015
Adults continue to delay major milestones
Figure 12: Parents with children under age 18 in the household, by living arrangement, 2007-16
Shifts in gender roles
Median income climbs, while the gender gap closes slightly
Figure 13: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2005-15
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Consumers turning online
Traditional retailers struggle
Innovation expected to help spur growth
WHAT’S WORKING?
Consumers seek new baby durables products, as online shopping plays a bigger role
Increases in new purchases and items owned
Leading retailers and brands
Figure 14: Target, email ad for baby registry, January 2017
Figure 15: Amazon, email ad for baby products and Prime, January 2017
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Traditional retailers are losing shoppers
Gifting is on the decline
Figure 16: Baby durables bought new vs. received new on a registry, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2016
Figure 17: Amazon, email ad for baby registry, January 2017
Future impact
WHAT’S NEXT?
Innovation in digital and technology will help to advance the category
Forward thinking attitudes will continue to influence the market
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
More consumers are buying new and receiving less, especially from registries
Consumers continue to prefer certain retailers
Shoppers head online for research and convenience
Consumers want safe products
ITEMS OWNED
Increased or flat ownership in all baby durables categories
Figure 18: Baby durables items owned, December 2016
Furniture
Figure 19: Baby related furniture owned, December 2016
Transport items
Figure 20: Baby related transport items owned, December 2016
Daytime care and/or safety/wellness items
Figure 21: Baby related daytime care and/or safety/wellness items owned, December 2016
Baby related activity items
Figure 22: Baby related activity items owned, December 2016
In their words
METHOD OF ACQUIRING ITEMS 
Most baby durables are acquired new, but majority are not coming from gift registries
Figure 23: method of acquiring items, December 2016
Methods vary by demographic
Figure 24: method of acquiring items – Bought new, by gender and age, December 2016 METHOD
Figure 25: method of acquiring items – Bought new, by gender and marital status, December 2016
Figure 26: method of acquiring items – Bought second-hand, by gender and marital status, December 2016
Figure 27: method of acquiring items – Bought second-hand, by age and household income, December 2016
Gaps in gift registries and new purchases by race
Figure 28: method of acquiring items – Bought new vs. received new via registry, by race and hispanic origin, December 2016
In their words
RETAILERS SHOPPED 
Mass merchandisers, baby superstores and online retailers continue to grow in share, while traditional retailers struggle
Figure 29: Retailers shopped, part 1, December 2016
Figure 30: Retailers shopped, part 2, December 2016
What’s driving top retailers?
Figure 31: Retailers shopped (in-store or online), by household income and by region, December 2016
Other retailers losing shoppers
Figure 32: babies r us – Trade-in event
Online becomes key player
Figure 33: Retailers shopped – Online, by race and hispanic origin, December 2016
In their words
BEHAVIOR AND ATTITUDES TOWARD BABY DURABLES SHOPPING 
Safety and price outrank brand loyalty
Figure 34: Behavior and attitudes toward safety and price when baby durables shopping, by gender and age, December 2016
Figure 35: Behavior and attitudes toward safety and price when baby durables shopping, by household income, December 2016
Online research is an important part of the shopping process
Figure 36: online behaviors and attitudes toward baby durables shopping, December 2016
Figure 37: Behavior and attitudes toward baby durables shopping – CHAID – Tree output, January 2017
In their own words
BRAND PERCEPTIONS
Long standing brands see highest rankings
Figure 38: Brand perception, December 2016
Figure 39: Brand perception, graco, by gender December 2016
Figure 40: Brand perception, fisher price, by gender December 2016
In their own words
Gender neutrality
In their own words
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby durables, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 42: Average number of people per household, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
Figure 43: Median age at first marriage, by gender, 2006-16
Figure 44: Median household income, by type of household, 2015
Figure 45: Median earnings of full-time, year-round workers, by gender and female-to-male earnings ratio, 1960-2015