Dining Out: A 2017 Look Ahead - US - December 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
The decline of grocery prices entices consumers to cook at home
Figure 1: Food sales at home and away from home, November 2015-September 2016
New dining out segments create new forms of competition
Figure 2: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2016
The service equation
Figure 3: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, September 2016
The opportunities
Breweries become a destination
Figure 4: Visitation to a local brewery/bar, September 2016
The merging of coffee shop and bar
Figure 5: Interest in seeing more coffeehouses serving alcohol at night in 2017, by age, September 2016
Consumers plan to seek out more social dining experiences
Figure 6: Dining out behavior, September 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
iGens are becoming a generation to watch
Millennials are putting off marriage and staying in cities
Segments are blurring across industries
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Restaurant sales expected to grow in a shifting landscape
Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
LSRs predicted to grow at a slightly higher pace than FSRs
Figure 10: Total US revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, at current prices, 2016
Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 12: Total US Revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET FACTORS
Consumer confidence
Figure 14: Consumer sentiment index, November 2015-November 2016
Millennials continue to shape the dining out scene
Figure 15: Median age at first marriage, by gender, 2005-15
Restaurants starting to take note of iGen preferences
Figure 16: Population by generation, 2017
Figure 17: Generations by Hispanic origin, 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Grocery store prices versus restaurant prices
Figure 18: Food sales at home and away from home, November 2015-September 2016
Industries step outside of their core
KEY TRENDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Travel and food: A perfect marriage
Legacy chains are struggling
On a TV near you
WHAT’S WORKING?
Will travel for food
Craft beer and food find a common ground
International fast casual growth
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Legacy chains
Traditional entrees
WHAT’S NEXT?
The flavor spectrum continues to widen
Food waste 2.0
Pop culture restaurant experiences
MMI DATA
Vegetables on the menu
Today – Vegetables demonstrate value in health and taste profiles
Figure 19: Menu incidence of vegetarian/vegan menu item claims and vegetable preparation methods, Q3 2015-16
Tomorrow – Butcher methods turn toward alternative meat
Hard cider
Today – Hard cider on the menu
Figure 20: Menu incidence of hard cider and fruit flavored beer, Q3 2015-16
Tomorrow – Served with a boost of flavor
Bowls
Today – The bowl trends
Figure 21: Menu incidence of bowls as a menu item dish, Q3 2015-16
Tomorrow – Foodservice bowl-inspired options in retail
Brunch
Today and tomorrow – A modern brunch occasion
Figure 22: Menu incidence of brunch menus, Q3 2015-16
Today and tomorrow – Marketing, ethical and geographical claims
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Young consumers enjoy beverage variety
Retail settings become more appealing from a foodservice perspective
Authentic international restaurants are top of mind
WHERE CONSUMERS ARE DINING
Traditional segments still drive visitation, but face increased competition
Figure 23: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2016
Figure 24: Visitation to a local brewery/bar, September 2016
Younger consumers are not giving up on grocery stores
Figure 25: Retailer food visitation, by generation, September 2016
Food halls become the new food court
Figure 26: Gourmet food hall visitation, by generation, September 2016
Non-Millennial parents more likely to focus on traditional dining segments
Figure 27: Restaurant segment visitation, Millennial parents vs non-Millennial parents, September 2016
DINING OUT BEHAVIOR – A LOOK INTO 2017
Consumers plan to enjoy more leisurely meals
Figure 28: Dining out behavior, September 2016
Millennials continue to crave dining out experiences
Figure 29: Dining out behavior, “What I plan to do more in 2017,” by generation, September 2016
Hispanics represent their own dining out preferences
Figure 30: Dining out behavior, “What I plan to do more in 2017,” by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARD DINING OUT
The stress-free component
Figure 31: Statement agreement toward dining out, September 2016
Figure 32: Statement agreement – Strongly agree, “Dining out is a good way to enjoy food I don’t typically prepare at home,” by gender, September 2016
Parents enjoy dining out
Figure 33: Statement agreement - Any agree, by parents versus non-parents, September 2016
The travel bug
Figure 34: Statement agreement – Any agree, “Trying new restaurants is an important component of travel,” by age, September 2017
BEVERAGE PREFERENCES FOR 2017
Iced tea leads in beverage preference
Figure 35: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, September 2016
Millennials and iGens crave beverage variety
Figure 36: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, by age, September 2016
Young, high-income consumers are a key alcohol demographic
Figure 37: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, by age and income, September 2016
MENU PREFERENCES
Premium and natural remain key menu preferences
Figure 38: Menu preferences, September 2016
Hispanics value direct health offerings
Figure 39: Menu preferences, by Hispanics, September 2016
2017 RESTAURANT CONCEPT TRENDS
Traditional dining habits still remain important
Figure 40: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, September 2016
iGens show a greater interest toward technology advances
Figure 41: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, by generation, September 2016
Meal-kit popularity provides a new opportunity for restaurants
Figure 42: Interest in restaurants offering more meal kits, by parents vs nonparents and age, September 2017
Hispanics display more brand loyalty
Figure 43: Select restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, by Hispanics vs non-Hispanics, September 2016
The union of coffee and alcohol
Figure 44: Interest in seeing more coffeehouses serving alcohol at night in 2017, by age, September 2016
Figure 45: Interest in seeing more cofeeehouses serve alcohol at night, by area, September 2016
THE DELIVERY TARGET
Family meal bundles
Figure 46: Attitudes toward dining out – CHAID – Tree output, September 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 47: Total US revenues and forecasts for limited service and other eating places* at current prices 2011-21
Figure 48: Total US revenues and forecasts for limited service and other eating places* at inflation prices 2011-21
Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecasts for full service restaurants at current prices 2011-21
Figure 50: Total US revenues and forecasts for full service restaurants at inflation prices 2011-21
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
CHAID analysis methodology
Figure 51: Attitudes toward dining out – CHAID – Table output, September 2016