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Unprocessed Poultry and Red Meat - UK - October 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Falling prices bring down market value 2014-16
Inflation and income trends to affect the market 2016-21
Figure 1: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, 2011-21
Diverse factors govern segment performance
Figure 2: Growth in UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by segment, 2011-16 and 2011-21
Mixed fortunes for red meat in 2016
Poultry remains in volume growth and game continues strong growth from a low base
‘Flexitarian’ trend opens possibilities for other proteins
Health concerns affect red meat
Companies and brands
Retailers build up their premium ranges
Waitrose launches Omega 3 enriched chicken, Tesco promotes twin-packs
Supermarkets dominate advertising
Discount supermarkets focus on provenance and ethics
Morrisons highlights in-store preparation and appeals to emotions
The consumer
Chicken’s lower price allows it more frequent usage than beef
Figure 3: Usage frequency for unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
Beef no longer the principal choice for weekend meals
A price-driven market, encouraged by supermarket tactics
Figure 4: Meat, poultry and game buying factors, August 2016
Scope to move the discussion beyond price among a significant minority
Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
Future direction of the economy crucial for future sales
Figure 5: Meat, poultry and game eating and buying behaviours, August 2016
Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
Figure 6: Attitudes towards meat, poultry and game, August 2016
Reassurance on antibiotics could help companies to bolster their reputation with consumers
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
The facts
The implications
Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
The facts
The implications
Offering reassurance on antibiotics can boost companies’ standing
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Falling prices bring down market value 2014-16
Inflation and income trends to affect the market 2016-21
Diverse factors govern segment performance
Mixed fortunes for red meat in 2016
Poultry remains in volume growth and game continues strong growth from a low base
‘Flexitarian’ trend opens possibilities for other proteins
Health concerns affect red meat
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Falling prices push down overall market value 2014-16
Imported inflation to push up overall market value 2016-21
Figure 7: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, 2011-21
Figure 8: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by segment, 2011-21
Forecast methodology
The impact of the EU referendum vote
Figure 9: Alternative scenarios for the unprocessed meat, poultry and game market, 2016-21
Figure 10: Alternative scenarios for the unprocessed meat, poultry and game market, at current prices, 2016-21
Potential for inflation to prompt cutbacks or switching
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Beef
Lower prices weaken beef values 2014-16
Volume sales grow slightly in 2016 despite WHO report
Health and environmental concerns to continue to affect beef 2016-21
Pork
Pork segment continues to struggle in 2016
High reliance on imports to drive pork price inflation 2016-21
Lamb
Reduced supply causes lamb prices to edge up in 2016
Lamb’s higher price leaves it vulnerable to any squeeze on incomes
Poultry
Poultry sales remain in growth as shoppers retain savvy spending habits
Poultry’s low price should help volume and value sales growth 2016-21
Game
Increased distribution helps game to grow 2011-16
Game expected to see further growth 2016-21, but this will slow
Offal
Lack of consumer interest hinders offal
Offal values to be pushed up by inflation despite static volume sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Weak wholesale meat and poultry prices pull down retail prices
Supermarkets step up their price war
Weakened pound could lead to price inflation
Brexit vote raises multiple uncertainties
Economic slowdown could lead to cutbacks or switching
Figure 11: Retail price index for meat and poultry, by segment, and comparison with total food, 2011-16
Many complex issues to resolve
‘Flexitarian’ trend has implications for volume sales
UN panel advocates tax on meat to preserve environment
Health concerns affect red meat
Antibiotic use comes under closer government scrutiny
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Retailers build up their premium ranges
Waitrose launches Omega 3 enriched chicken, Tesco promotes twin-packs
Supermarkets dominate advertising
Discount supermarkets focus on provenance and ethics
Morrisons highlights in-store preparation and appeals to emotions
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Further growth in roast-in-the-bag chickens
Appealing to the ethically-conscious through animal welfare claims
Opportunity for roast-in-the-bag game birds
Supermarkets build up their premium ranges
Discounters look to exotic and unusual meats
Exploring provenance through reference to animal breeds
Rise in low-fat claims
Waitrose looks to tap into interest in Omega 3 with enriched chicken
Tesco introduces Farm brands
Tesco promotes chicken twin-packs as cutting down on food waste
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Supermarkets dominate advertising
Discount supermarkets put the focus on provenance
Aldi uses humour to underline its ethical sourcing
Lidl focuses on farms
Figure 12: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on red meat, poultry and game, by top advertisers, 2012-16*
Morrisons highlights its in-store meat preparation
Building emotional associations around meat through reference to family meals
Trade bodies look to attract younger consumers to lamb
AHDB reprises mini roast campaign
AHDB and HCC push family farms angle to encourage buying British
AHDB prompts Britons to support lamb farmers
HCC looks to push awareness of Welsh pork producers
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Chicken’s lower price allows it more frequent usage than beef
Beef no longer the principal choice for weekend meals
A price-driven market, encouraged by supermarket tactics
Scope to move the discussion beyond price among a significant minority
Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
Future direction of the economy crucial for future sales
Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
Reassurance on antibiotics could help companies to bolster their reputation with consumers
USAGE OF UNPROCESSED MEAT, POULTRY AND GAME
Usage of meat, poultry and game higher among men than women
Chicken is the most regularly eaten type
Figure 13: Usage of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
Beef is the second most eaten meat, but lags far behind chicken on frequency
Figure 14: Usage frequency for unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
Over-55s are the most likely to eat lamb
Game attracts a young urban customer base
Game should benefit from the expansion in processed products
Turkey and duck face a number of usage barriers
USAGE OCCASIONS FOR SELECTED TYPES OF MEAT, POULTRY AND GAME
Beef no longer the first choice for Sunday lunch
Figure 15: Usage occasions for selected types of meat, poultry and game, August 2016
Pork chosen for everyday meals but not for special occasions
One third would cook lamb for a weekday meal
Unprocessed meat loses out to processed for outdoor meals
MEAT, POULTRY AND GAME BUYING FACTORS
Consumers’ price focus encouraged by retailer tactics
Scope to move the discussion away from price among a large minority
Figure 16: Meat, poultry and game buying factors, August 2016
Focus on familiar meats limits buying repertoires
Cooking advice could help to boost sales of less familiar meat cuts
Further work needed to persuade consumers on value of animal breeds and diets
MEAT, POULTRY AND GAME EATING AND BUYING BEHAVIOURS 
Future direction of the economy crucial for meat sales
Figure 17: Meat, poultry and game eating and buying behaviours, August 2016
Flexitarian trend creates opportunities for other protein sources
Poultry and game could benefit from health concerns around red meat
ATTITUDES TOWARDS MEAT, POULTRY AND GAME
Additional incentive needed to prompt buyers to act on their trust in British safety and welfare standards
Figure 18: Attitudes towards meat, poultry and game, August 2016
Ethical claims could be a differentiator
Interest in farmers’ pay guarantees should be a boost to small family farms
Opportunities for further expansion in charity tie-ups
Need to make charity connections more tangible
Unnecessary antibiotic use of concern to many
‘No antibiotic’ labels likely to resonate
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 19: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 20: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2011-21
Figure 21: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2016-21
Figure 23: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2011-21
Figure 24: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 25: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2016-21
Figure 26: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2011-21
Figure 27: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2016-21
Figure 29: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2011-21
Figure 30: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2016-21
Figure 32: UK retail value sales of unprocessed game, 2011-21
Figure 33: UK retail value sales of unprocessed game, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed game, 2016-21
Figure 35: UK retail value sales of offal, 2011-21
Figure 36: UK retail value sales of offal, with annual change, 2011-21
Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of offal, 2016-21
Forecast Methodology

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