Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks - US - August 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Pace of category sales growth slows
Figure 1: Total US retail sales of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2011-16
Category faces breakfast competition
Figure 2: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Nets, May 2016
Greek isn’t going away anytime soon, but consumers are hungry for innovation
Figure 3: Yogurt/yogurt drink launches featuring “Greek,” by segment, 2012-16*
The opportunities
The small yogurt drinks segment increases value by 62% from 2011-16
Figure 4: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Pushing beyond breakfast as one means of retaining relevance
Figure 5: Correspondence analysis – Yogurt and yogurt drinks perceptions, May 2016
Flavor is key, followed by health and convenience
Figure 6: Reasons for consumption, May 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dollar sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks are expected to grow 3% in 2016
Spoonable makes up 90% of dollar sales, growth slows in the segment
The small yogurt drinks segment increases value by 62% from 2011-16
Yogurt has competition for breakfast
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Dollar sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks are expected to grow 3% in 2016
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Spoonable yogurt dominates category sales
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment share, 2016 (est)
Yogurt drinks continue strong growth
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Volume sales lag in spoonable at MULO, boom in drinks
Figure 12: Volume sales yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, 2011-15
Supermarkets account for 61% share of dollar sales
Figure 13: “Create. Mix. Enjoy. with Chobani Greek Yogurt and Target,” online video, August 2015
Figure 14: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16 (est)
Natural channel growth outpaces that of the total market
Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks May 18, 2014-May 15, 2016
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Yogurt faces competition for breakfast
Figure 16: Breakfast food purchase, May 2016
MARKET FACTORS 
Health remains top of mind with consumers
Figure 17: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
Most adults believe it’s better to eat well than to use diet products
Figure 18: Attitudes toward diets, July 2015
Digestive health issues are common among adults
Figure 19: Attitudes toward probiotics, by age, May 2016
FDA reveals updated nutrition facts panel
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Groupe Danone controls 30% of MULO dollar sales in the category
Chobani posts 12% MULO dollar sales growth over 52-week period
Dannon benefits from range within the yogurt drinks segment
Other yogurt drink leaders post big gains, suggest further growth potential
LEADING COMPANY SALES OF YOGURT AND YOGURT DRINKS
Groupe Danone controls 30% of MULO dollar sales in the category
General Mills stumbles, looks at realignment
Chobani continues to flourish
Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks
Figure 20: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 52 weeks ending May 15, 2016
Figure 21: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Dannon bests Yoplait for top spot in spoonable
Figure 22: “Dannon Pledge - Straight Talk Mom Hero video,” online video, July 2016
Yoplait takes a hit, keeps going
Figure 23: “Yoplait I Synchronicity,” online video, June 2016
Figure 24: “Plenti Yogurt – That’s Surprising – Lawn Mower (:30),” online video, February 2016
Chobani posts strong gains
Figure 25: MULO sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Lala turns yogurt into a verb
Figure 26: “LALA Yogurting TV & Web :15 Kitchen Core,” online video, February 2016
Growth of Yakult could point to interest in efficacy
Figure 27: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Private label gets in on the yogurt drink action
Figure 28: Yogurt drink launches, by private label, 2012-16*
Figure 29: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Store brand, by generation, May 2016
Figure 30: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Store brand, by reasons for consumption, May 2016
Greek isn’t going away anytime soon
Figure 31: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 32: Yogurt/yogurt drink launches featuring “Greek,” by segment, 2012-16*
Coconut milk options top natural channel sales
Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy yogurt and yogurt drinks, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Full fat makes big gains in natural channels
Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Organic positioning gains on not organic in natural channels
Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Standard spoonable yogurt flavors give way to taste innovation
Figure 36: Spoonable yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 37: Spoonable yogurt launches, by fastest growing, 2012-16*
WHAT’S NEXT?
The expansion of yogurt drink variety
Figure 38: Yogurt drink launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
A wider array of formats
More adventurous flavors
Reminding consumers yogurt drinks are a thing around the world
Pushing beyond breakfast
Continued specialization
Emphasizing probiotics
Mainstream brands promote their bugs
Figure 39: “Yoplait | Counting,” online video, December 2015
Figure 40: “Let Them Eat Bugs – ProBugs!” online video, April 2016
Grass fed
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Two thirds of consumers purchase yogurt
Single servings top purchase format
Largest percentage of buyers purchase low-fat options
Half of yogurt drink buyers purchase all-natural varieties
The category is gaining acceptance as a snack
YOGURT/YOGURT DRINK PURCHASE
Two thirds of consumers purchase yogurt
Figure 41: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, May 2016
Men are a strong target for yogurt drinks
Figure 42: “Texture,” online video, September 2015
Figure 43: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, by gender, May 2016
Millennials are strong category participants
Figure 44: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, by generation, May 2016
Half of Asian shoppers purchase yogurt drinks
Figure 45: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase – Nets*, by race, May 2016
HHs with children are more likely to participate in category
Stonyfield depicts dads
Figure 46: “No Matter How You Dad, It’s All Good,” online video, May 2016
Figure 47: Yogurt/yogurt drink purchase, by parental status, May 2016
FORMATS AND CLAIMS
Size
Single servings top purchase format
Figure 48: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by segment, May 2016
Single servings resonate with women, men like variety
Figure 49: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by gender, May 2016
Smaller sizes appeal to older shoppers, young shoppers like variety
Figure 50: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by generation, May 2016
Multi-serving containers resonate with frequent eaters
Figure 51: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by consumption frequency across occasions measured, May 2016
Single servings appear as affordable, multiservings aid versatility
Figure 52: Yogurt/yogurt drink format – Size, by reasons for consumption, May 2016
Format
Tubes and pouches are still the realm of parents
Figure 53: “Star Wars GoGurt,” online video, November 2015
Figure 54: Yogurt/yogurt drink format, by parental status, May 2016
Fat content
The largest percentage of buyers purchase low fat, full fat gains strength
Figure 55: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by segment, May 2016
Millennials open to full fat, older shoppers shy away
Figure 56: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by generation, May 2016
Parents are twice as likely as nonparents to buy full fat
Figure 57: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by parental status, May 2016
Dieters are twice as likely to buy nonfat than full fat
Figure 58: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Fat content, by reasons for consumption, May 2016
Health attributes
A third of category participants purchase all-natural varieties
Figure 59: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by segment, May 2016
All-natural, organic appeal to Millennials; older shoppers aim to reduce sugar
Figure 60: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by generation, May 2016
Health attributes have generally stronger appeal among higher earning HHs
Figure 61: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by HH income, May 2016
Parents are more likely to look for all-natural, organic
Figure 62: Yogurt/yogurt drink type – Health attributes, by parental status, May 2016
VARIETIES AND STYLES
Varieties
Fruit and fruit flavors lead yogurt varieties purchased
Figure 63: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety, May 2016
Nuts and grains and savory flavors have stronger appeal among men
Figure 64: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, by gender, May 2016
Millennials are generally more adventurous eaters
Figure 65: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, by generation, May 2016
Style
Half of category participants purchase Greek, other international styles are still catching on
Figure 66: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, May 2016
Alternative styles find a strong audience in Millennials
Figure 67: Yogurt/yogurt drink style, by generation, May 2016
Non-dairy
18% of category participants buy non-dairy varieties
Figure 68: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety – Non-dairy, May 2016
Figure 69: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety – Non-dairy, by generation, May 2016
Non-dairy might be cost prohibitive
Figure 70: Yogurt/yogurt drink variety – Non-dairy, by HH income, May 2016
REASONS FOR CONSUMPTION
Flavor is key, followed by health and convenience
Figure 71: Reasons for consumption, May 2016
Calcium is important to women
Figure 72: Reasons for consumption, by gender, May 2016
Older consumers seek products for health, younger ones for convenience
Figure 73: Reasons for consumption, by generation, May 2016
CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS
Breakfast and snacking lead consumption occasions
Figure 74: “Yoplait Fro-Yo Snowflakes with Whips!” online video, December 2015
Figure 75: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Nets, May 2016
Figure 76: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption frequency, by select occasions, May 2016
Breakfast consumption
A third of men eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for breakfast daily
Figure 77: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Breakfast net*, by gender, May 2016
43% of Millennials eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for breakfast daily
Figure 78: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Breakfast net*, by generation, May 2016
Nearly half of parents eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for breakfast daily
Figure 79: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Breakfast net*, by parental status, May 2016
Snack consumption
A quarter of men eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for snacks daily
Figure 80: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Snack net*, by gender, May 2016
A third of Millennials consume yogurt/yogurt drinks for a snack daily
Figure 81: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Snack net*, by generation, May 2016
A third of parents eat yogurt/yogurt drinks for snacks daily
Figure 82: “Four Ways to Snack Hack,” online video, March 2016
Figure 83: Yogurt/yogurt drink consumption – Snack net*, by generation, May 2016
PERCEPTIONS
Grains, fruit are most likely to satisfy as a snack/meal
Figure 84: “Yoplait | Not Yet,” online video, December 2015
Figure 85: Correspondence analysis – Yogurt and yogurt drinks perceptions, May 2016
Figure 86: Yogurt and yogurt drinks perceptions, May 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Correspondence analysis methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET 
Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 88: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 89: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 90: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Figure 91: Volume sales of spoonable yogurt, 2011-15
Figure 92: Volume sales of yogurt drinks, 2011-15
Figure 93: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 94: US sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 95: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks May 18, 2014-May 15, 2016
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 96: Leading company sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2015 and 2016
Figure 97: Spoonable yogurt launches, by private label, 2012-16*
Figure 98: Yogurt drink launches, by private label, 2012-16*
Figure 99: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 100: Yogurt/yogurt drink launches featuring “Greek,” by segment, 2012-16*
Figure 101: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy yogurt and yogurt drinks, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 102: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 103: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 104: Spoonable yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 105: Yogurt drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 106: Spoonable yogurt launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
Figure 107: Yogurt drink launches, by launch type, 2012-16*
Figure 108: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 109: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 110: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 111: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by lactose free, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending May 18, 2014 and May 15, 2016
Figure 112: Spoonable yogurt launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 113: Yogurt drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*