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Nutritional and Performance Drinks - US - April 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
More than a third of consumers are too busy to take care of themselves
Figure 1: Lifestyle statements: Attitudes/opinions toward diet/health – Agree, February 2015
Competing categories make a play for functional delivery
Figure 2: Functional claims in select beverage category launches, March 2015-February 2016
Weight loss drinks stall
Figure 3: Share of total US retail sales of nutritional and performance drinks, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
The opportunities
Help consumers help themselves
Figure 4: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
Double down on expertise
Figure 5: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
Offer more not less
Figure 6: Purchase factors, February 2015
What it means
THE MARKET - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dollar sales of nutritional and performance drinks continue moderate growth
Sports drinks lose a little dominance, growth of nutritional/performance drinks points to importance of function
Competing categories make a play for functional deliveries
Obesity rates indicate consumers need help making healthy choices
Nutritional and performance drinks can offer a helping hand
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Nutritional and performance drinks continue moderate growth
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional and performance drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional and performance drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional and performance drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Sports drinks retain domination, but nutritional and performance drinks gain share
Figure 10: Share of total US retail sales of nutritional and performance drinks, by segment, 2010 and 2015 (est)
Weight loss drinks stall, all other segments thrive
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional and performance drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Largest share of category sales comes through “other” channels
Figure 12: Share of US sales of nutritional and performance drinks, by retail channel, 2015 (est)
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Other beverages make a play for functional deliveries
Figure 13: Functional claims in select beverage category launches, March 2015-February 2016
Juices claim hydration
Waters promote recovery
Energy drinks/coffee/tea emphasize increased energy/physical performance
MARKET FACTORS
More than a third of consumers are too busy to take care of themselves
Figure 14: Lifestyle statements: Attitudes/opinions toward diet/health -- Agree, February 2015
Only half of respondents are at a healthy weight
Figure 15: BMI calculation, February 2015
Figure 16: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2-19 years: US, 1999-2000 through 2013-14
Three quarters of respondents prioritize healthy food choices
Figure 17: Attitudes toward dietary health – Agree, February 2015
Shift in diet patterns put the focus on healthy eating
Figure 18: Methods and tools currently used for dieting, July 2015
Figure 19: Attitudes toward dietary health – Agree, by generation, February 2015
Figure 20: Attitudes toward dietary health –Agree, by hh income, February 2015
61% of consumers typically have a fitness goal they are working toward
Figure 21: Attitudes toward physical activity – Agree, February 2015
Figure 22: Attitudes toward physical activity – Agree, by generation, February 2015
Figure 23: Attitudes toward physical activity – Agree, by hh income, February 2015
Two thirds of consumers like to following a plan to meet health/fitness goals
Figure 24: Attitudes toward diet and physical activity – Agree – General, February 2015
Figure 25: Attitudes toward diet and physical activity – Agree – General, by generation, February 2015
Figure 26: Attitudes toward diet and physical activity – Agree – General, by hh income, February 2015
Men have a generally higher opinion of their physical/dietary health
Figure 27: Attitudes toward diet and physical activity – Agree, by gender, February 2015
Three quarters of nutritional and performance drink buyers are willing to pay more for a nutritional benefit
Figure 28: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
PepsiCo maintains the largest share of category sales at MULO
Nestlé posts big gains in the 52 weeks ending Jan. 24, 2016
Small brands gain ground
Diet-related claims fall among product launches
Reduction in protein claims across category segments
MANUFACTURER SALES OF NUTRITIONAL AND PERFORMANCE DRINKS
PepsiCo maintains the largest share of category sales at MULO
Manufacturer sales of nutritional and performance drinks
Figure 29: Share of MULO sales of nutritional and performance drinks, 52 weeks ending Jan. 24, 2016
Nestlé posts big gains in the 52 weeks ending Jan. 24, 2016
Figure 30: MULO sales of nutritional and performance beverages, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Small brands post big gains in sports drinks and beyond
Figure 31: MULO sales of sports drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Nestlé nutritional drink brands show strong performance
Figure 32: MULO sales of nutritional drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Atkins weight loss drinks grow 16%
Figure 33: MULO sales of weight-loss drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Private label nutritional and weight loss drinking launches are on the rise
Figure 34: Weight loss drink launches, by branded/private label, 2012-16*
Figure 35: Nutritional drink launches, by branded/private label, 2012-16*
Figure 36: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
Figure 37: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, by drink type, February 2015
Muscle Milk grows 15% in performance drinks
Figure 38: MULO sales of performance drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Performance drinks getting more extreme
Figure 39: Performance drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Diet-related claims fall among sports drink launches
Figure 40: Sports drink launches, by select leading claims, 2012-16*
Protein claims are down among nutritional and weight loss drinks
Figure 41: Nutritional drink launches, by select leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 42: Weight loss drink launches, by select leading claims, 2012-16*
WHAT’S NEXT?
A focus on efficacy
Figure 43: “Your Game is Our Lab,” online video, March 2016
Keeping function relevant
Figure 44: Important factors to personal wellness, ranked first, October 2015
Figure 45: “Messi | Don’t go Down,” online video, February 2016
Figure 46: Sports & fitness participation, by select activities, 2011-15
What follows protein?
Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks, by pre and probiotics, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016
Natural nutrition
Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks*, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016
Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks*, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016
Plant-based nutrition
Helping consumers help themselves
Figure 50: “The Powerade Workout Billboards,” online video, April 2015
Strong opportunity for engagement online
Customized health
Gatorade expands into digital fitness
Snack focus
Drinks as just one aspect of a larger line
Figure 51: “It’s Your Thing,”:30 second TV commercial, February 2016
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Nutritional drinks see largest participation
Men are significantly more likely to purchase drinks in the category
Millennials are a key target for all drink types
Snacking leads consumption occasion
Supermarkets/mass lead purchase locations
NUTRITIONAL AND PERFORMANCE DRINK PURCHASE
A third of consumers purchase nutritional drinks
Figure 52: Drink purchase, February 2015
Figure 53: Nutritional drink purchase – Breakout, February 2015
Key driver analysis: Nutritional drinks
Figure 54: Key drivers of nutritional drinks and mixes*, February 2016
Men are significantly more likely to purchase performance and sports drinks
Figure 55: “Six Star Whey Protein Plus,” online video, October 2015
Figure 56: Drink purchase, by gender, February 2015
Key driver analysis: Performance drink purchase
Figure 57: Key drivers of performance drinks and mixes, February 2016
Millennials are key target for all drink types
Figure 58: Drink purchase, by generation, February 2015
Drink purchase corresponds with household income
Figure 59: Drink purchase, by household income, February 2015
Hispanics are more likely than average to purchase drinks
Figure 60: Drink purchase, by Hispanic, February 2015
CONSUMPTION OCCASION
Snacking leads consumption occasion
Figure 61: Consumption occasion, by drink type, February 2015
Figure 62: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
Most consumers drink products in the morning
Figure 63: Consumption occasion – Daypart, by drink type, February 2015
Weight loss drinks lead for meal consumption
Figure 64: Consumption occasion – Meals, by drink type, February 2015
Exercise-based consumption is most likely to come pre-workout
Figure 65: “It’s Recover Time,” online video, March 2016
Figure 66: Consumption occasion – Exercise, by drink type, February 2015
OPINIONS TOWARD NUTRITIONAL AND PERFORMANCE DRINKS
Drinks seen as helping with health habits
Figure 67: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
Figure 68: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
PERCEIVED FUNCTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
Nutritional and performance drinks share some perceptions
Figure 69: Correspondence Analysis – Drink attributes, February 2016
Figure 70: Drink attributes, February 2016
Specialization may yield better results than trying to be a catch all
Figure 71: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
PURCHASE FACTORS
Flavor/protein important in purchase decision
Figure 72: Purchase factors, February 2015
Flavor innovation could use a boost
Figure 73: Nutritional and performance drink launches, by leading flavors, 2016*
Drinks buyers view natural ingredients as effective
Figure 74: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
Sports drink buyers drawn to favorite flavors and a name brands
Protein appeals to performance drink buyers
Nutritional drinks buyers look for proven products with natural ingredients
Weight loss drink buyers look for new flavors
Figure 75: “Temptation Gets Licked with Special K® Protein Shakes,” online video, February 2015
Figure 76: Purchase factors, by drink type, February 2015
INFORMATION SOURCES
Trusted brands go far in category, but opportunity exists for smaller players
Online channels provide opportunity for engagement
Figure 77: Information sources, February 2015
Trusted brands have a particular draw among sports drink buyers
On-pack information appeals to nutritional drink buyers
Atkins ads mix celebrity endorsement with non-celebrities
Figure 78: “#HappyWeight: Alyssa Milano + 3 Success Story Candidates,” online video, January 2016
Attract attention through inspiration, engage with accessibility
Figure 79: “Stephen Curry is Stronger Everyday,” online video, February 2016
Figure 80: “Moving the game forward,” online video, November 2015
Figure 81: Information sources, by drink type, February 2015
PURCHASE LOCATION
Supermarkets/mass lead purchase locations, online channel strong
The category has the opportunity to nurture online sales
Figure 82: Purchase location, February 2015
Sports drink buyers are particularly drawn to supermarkets/mass
Club stores do well for nutritional/weight loss drinks
Performance drink buyers turn to online channels
Figure 83: Purchase location, by drink type, February 2015
General retailers can appeal for efficacy
Figure 84: Opinions toward nutritional and performance drinks – Agree, February 2015
DESIRED AMOUNT OF PROTEIN
Largest percentage of consumers look for 13-20g of protein
Figure 85: Protein amount, by activity/outcome, February 2015
PREFERRED SOURCES OF PROTEIN
Nuts rule as a preferred sources of protein
Figure 86: Preferred sources of protein, February 2015
Figure 87: Desired source of protein, by drink type, February 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Methodology: Key Driver Analysis
Figure 88: Key drivers of performance drinks and mixes– key driver output, February 2016
Figure 89: Key drivers of nutritional drinks and mixes– key driver output, February 2016
Methodology: Correspondence Analysis
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 90: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 91: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 92: Total US retail sales and forecast of performance drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of performance drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of sports drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of sports drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of weight loss drinks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 97: Total US retail sales and forecast of weight loss drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 98: US supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 99: US drug store sales of nutritional and performance drinks, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 100: US sales of nutritional and performance drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 101: MULO sales of nutritional and performance beverages, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 102: Weight loss drink launches, by branded/private label, 2012-16*
Figure 103: Nutritional drink launches, by branded/private label, 2012-16*
Figure 104: Performance drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 105: Nutritional drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 106: Sports drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 107: Weight loss drink launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
Figure 108: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks*, by pre and probiotics, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016
Figure 109: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks*, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016
Figure 110: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks*, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016
Figure 111: Sports drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 112: Weight loss drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 113: Performance drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 114: Nutritional drink launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16*
Figure 115: Natural supermarket sales of nutritional and performance drinks*, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Feb. 23, 2014 and Feb. 21, 2016

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