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Yellow Fats and Edible Oils - UK - August 2014

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Industry definitions of yellow fats
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK retail value and volume sales of yellow fats and oils, by segment, 2013
The future
Figure 2: UK retail value sales and forecast of yellow fats and oils, by value, 2009-19
Market factors
UK wholesale cream and butter prices are lower year on year
Interest in home baking falls
Spain sees a bumper year for olive oil production
Companies, brands and innovation
Arla Foods holds a third of the UK yellow fats market
Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK yellow fats market, by value, 2013/14*
Lower share of NPD does not mean butter is failing to innovate
Margarine and spreads account for half of adspend in yellow fats and edible oils
The consumer
Most Brits buy yellow fats
Figure 4: Yellow fats bought, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
85% buy edible oils
Figure 5: Edible oils bought, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
Usage of spreads becomes less frequent
Figure 6: Frequency of usage of butters, spreads, edible oils and solid oils/fats, July 2013 and May 2014
‘Oil for pasta’ would interest one in four
Figure 7: Attitudes towards edible oils, May 2014
Improvements to oil bottle design are needed
One in four consumers favour butter over buttermilk in spreads
Figure 8: Attitudes towards yellow fats, May 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Spreads brands must address concerns over taste and ease of use
The facts
The implications
Bottle design can offer standout for oil brands
The facts
The implications
Highlighting recipes can help oils to tap into home baking
The facts
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Life Hacking
Trend: Extend My Brand
Trend: Fauxthenticity
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Lower UK bulk cream and wholesale butter prices could drive sales
Figure 9: UK wholesale prices for unsalted butter and bulk cream, January 2012-June 2014
Figure 10: Consumer price index of butter, January 2012-June 2014
Müller Group butter production adds competition into the market
Decline in wrapped bread sales and usage of other spreads continues to affect usage
Decline in home baking could lead to lower usage of yellow fats
EU sees bumper year for olive oil production, driven by Spain
Figure 11: EU olive oil production (all types), crop years 2009/10-2013/14
Butter’s health profile might not be so bad after all…
Growth in the over-35 age group should support sales of spreads
Figure 12: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-14 and 2014-19
Figure 13: Usage of butter, spreads and oils at least daily, by age, May 2014
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
One in four launches were spreads in 2013
Figure 14: NPD in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by segment, 2009-14
Brands hold a majority share of NPD in every category
Figure 15: NPD in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by product category, by brand vs own-label, 2013
Manufacturers and retailers push yellow fats tailored towards cooking
Butter dishes offer on-shelf standout
Chilli and garlic oils account for nearly three in 10 launches
Innovation from abroad
Flavoured butters
Brands look to fortification to add a point of difference in spreads and oils
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Butter, spreads and edible oils
Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of yellow fats and oils, 2009-19
Forecast
Figure 17: UK retail sales and forecast of yellow fats and oil, by volume, 2009-19
Figure 18: UK retail sales and forecast of yellow fats and oil, by value, 2009-19
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Butter increases its share of the yellow fats market
Figure 19: UK retail value sales of butter, by type, 2009-13
Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of butter, 2009-19
Could butter help save spreads?
Figure 21: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, by type, 2011-13
Figure 22: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, 2009-19
Home baking trend loses momentum, feeding into lower usage of cooking and baking spreads
Figure 23: UK retail value and volume sales of cooking and baking spreads, 2009-19
Volumes fall across standard and olive oils
Figure 24: Estimated UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils (liquid), by type, 2011-13
Figure 25: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, 2009-19
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Arla Foods accounts for over a third of the UK yellow fats sales
Figure 26: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Lurpak Spreadable leads the yellow fats market
Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Own-label accounts for two thirds of value in standard cooking oils
Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail standard cooking oil market, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Figure 29: Manufacturer sales and shares in the UK retail standard cooking oil market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Filippo Berio holds a fifth of olive oil value sales
Figure 30: Brand sales and shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
Figure 31: Manufacturer sales and shares in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Adams Foods
Product range
Product innovation
Marketing and advertising
Arla Foods
Product range
Recent activity
Product innovation
Marketing and advertising
Dairy Crest
Product range
Recent activity
Product innovation
Marketing and advertising
Unilever
Product range
Product innovation
Marketing and advertising
Filippo Berio
Product range and innovation
Princes Group
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Margarine and spreads is only sector to increase spend in two years
Figure 32: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by segment, 2010-14
Unilever accounts for nearly half of total category adspend
Figure 33: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by advertiser, 2010-14
Flora Buttery accounts for almost a third of adspend
Figure 34: Main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by leading brands, 2013
Brands revisit previous ad themes
Brands offer home bakers the tools for the kitchen
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 35: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the yellow fats and edible oils sector, June 2014
Correspondence analysis
Brand attitudes
Figure 36: Attitudes, by yellow fats and edible oils brand, June 2014
Brand personality
Figure 37: Yellow fats and edible oils brand personality – Macro image, June 2014
Figure 38: Yellow fats and edible oils brand personality – Micro image, June 2014
Brand experience
Figure 39: Yellow fats and edible oils brand usage, June 2014
Figure 40: Satisfaction with various yellow fats and edible oils brands, June 2014
Figure 41: Consideration of yellow fats and edible oils brands, June 2014
Figure 42: Consumer perceptions of current yellow fats and edible oils brand performance, June 2014
Brand recommendation
Figure 43: Recommendation of selected yellow fats and edible oils brands, June 2014
THE CONSUMER – PURCHASING HABITS AND FREQUENCY OF USAGE
Key points
Some 95% of Brits buy butters or spreads
Figure 44: Yellow fats bought, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
Consumers shrink their usage repertoire
Figure 45: Repertoire of yellow fats bought, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
Some 85% of people buy edible oils
Figure 46: Edible oils bought, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
Figure 47: Repertoire of edible oils bought, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
Spreads are on the daily menu for two in five people
Figure 48: Yellow fats and edible oils usage frequency, by type, July 2013 and May 2014
Butter usage peaks among men
Figure 49: Usage of butter, spreads and oils at least daily, by age, May 2014
THE CONSUMER – PERCEPTION OF YELLOW FATS AND EDIBLE OILS
Key points
Butter excels on taste – But this fails to win over non-users
Figure 50: Frequent and rare/non-users’ perceptions of butter and spreads, May 2014
Spreads are seen as tasty by only one in four heavy users
Spread brands should do more to push their main USPs against butter
Spreadable butters should do more to promote their taste
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS EDIBLE OILS
Key points
Scope for developing ‘oils for pasta’
Figure 51: Attitudes towards edible oils, May 2014
A quarter of users find it hard to control oil when pouring
Nearly one in four would like more guidance on usage of oils by type
Need for brands to explain why extra virgin is superior
Recipes that replace butter with oil appeal to one in five
Olive oil containing olives would appeal most to Londoners and higher earners
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BUTTERS AND SPREADS
Key points
Butter is more appealing in a spread than buttermilk for one in four
Figure 52: Interest in selected yellow fats product concepts, May 2014
Spreads containing superfood oil would appeal to one in five users
Free gifts appeal to a significant minority
One in seven would be interested in a liquid spread
‘Ready-to-bake-with’ products from butter brands would appeal to a quarter of 16-34s
Figure 53: Interest in buying chilled cookie dough or icing made by a butter brand, by age, May 2014
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 54: UK wholesale prices of butter and bulk cream, January 2012-June 2014 (£/tonne)
Figure 55: Consumer Price Index of butter, January 2012-June 2014
Figure 56: EU olive oil production (all types), crop years 2009/10-2013/14
Figure 57: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-19
Figure 58: Agreement with the statement “I try to make sure I eat a low-fat diet”, March 2012- May 2014
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Total market
Figure 59: Best and worst case forecasts for retail sales of yellow fats and oils, by value, 2014-19
Figure 60: Best and worst case forecasts for retail sales of yellow fats and oils, by volume, 2014-19
Butter
Figure 61: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter, by value, 2009-19
Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of butter, by value, 2014-19
Figure 63: Forecast of UK retail sales of butter, by volume, 2009-19
Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of butter, by volume, 2014-19
Spreads
Figure 65: Forecast of UK retail sales of spreads, by value, 2009-19
Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of spreads, by value, 2014-19
Figure 67: Forecast of UK retail sales of spreads, by volume, 2009-19
Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of spreads, by volume, 2014-19
Cooking and baking spreads
Figure 69: Forecast of UK retail sales of cooking and baking spreads, by value, 2009-19
Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of cooking and baking spreads, by value, 2014-19
Figure 71: Forecast of UK retail sales of cooking and baking spreads, by volume, 2009-19
Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of cooking and baking spreads, by volume, 2014-19
Edible oils
Figure 73: Forecast of UK retail sales of edible oils, by value, 2009-19
Figure 74: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of edible oils, by value, 2014-19
Figure 75: Forecast of UK retail sales of edible oils, by volume, 2009-19
Figure 76: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail sales of edible oils, by volume, 2014-19
APPENDIX – WHO’S INNOVATING?
Figure 77: NPD in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by top claims, 2010-14
Figure 78: NPD in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by company (top 10), 2010-14
Figure 79: NPD in the UK edible oils market, by flavour, incl. blend (top 10), 2010-14
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Figure 80: Share of main monitored advertising expenditure in the UK yellow fats and edible oils market, by segment, 2010-14
APPENDIX – BRAND RESEARCH
Figure 81: Brand usage, June 2014
Figure 82: Brand commitment, June 2014
Figure 83: Brand momentum, June 2014
Figure 84: Brand diversity, June 2014
Figure 85: Brand satisfaction, June 2014
Figure 86: Brand recommendation, June 2014
Figure 87: Brand attitude, June 2014
Figure 88: Brand image – Macro image, June 2014
Figure 89: Brand image – Micro image, June 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – PURCHASING HABITS AND FREQUENCY OF USAGE
Figure 90: Purchasing habits of yellow fats, May 2014
Figure 91: Most popular types of yellow fats bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 92: Next most popular types of yellow fats bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 93: Repertoire of types of yellow fats bought, May 2014
Figure 94: Repertoire of types of yellow fats bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 95: Types of yellow fats bought, by repertoire of types of yellow fats bought, May 2014
Figure 96: Types of edible oils bought, May 2014
Figure 97: Most popular types of edible oils bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 98: Next most popular types of edible oils bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 99: Other types of edible oils bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 100: Repertoire of types of edible oils bought, May 2014
Figure 101: Repertoire of types of edible oils bought, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 102: Purchasing habits of edible oils, by repertoire of edible oils bought, May 2014
Figure 103: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils, May 2014
Figure 104: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 105: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Butter, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 106: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Butter, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 107: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Spread, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 108: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Spread, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 109: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Edible oil, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 110: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Edible oil, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
Figure 111: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Solid oil/fat, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 112: Frequency of usage of yellow fats and oils – Solid oil/fat, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – PERCEPTION OF YELLOW FATS AND EDIBLE OILS
Figure 113: Qualities associated with yellow fats and edible oils – Frequent butter users, May 2014
Figure 114: Qualities associated with yellow fats and edible oils – Moderate butter users, May 2014
Figure 115: Qualities associated with yellow fats and edible oils – Rare butter users, May 2014
Figure 116: Qualities associated with yellow fats and edible oils – Frequent spread users, May 2014
Figure 117: Qualities associated with yellow fats and edible oils – Moderate spread users, May 2014
Figure 118: Qualities associated with yellow fats and edible oils – Rare spread users, May 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS EDIBLE OILS
Figure 119: Attitudes towards edible oils, May 2014
Figure 120: Most popular attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 121: Next most popular attitudes towards edible oils, by demographics, May 2014
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BUTTERS AND SPREADS
Figure 122: Interest in selected yellow fats product concepts, May 2014
Figure 123: Most popular yellow fats product concepts, by demographics, May 2014
Figure 124: Next most popular yellow fats product concepts, by demographics, May 2014

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