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Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks - US - August 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market factors
Yogurt sales top $7 billion in fifth consecutive year of growth
Figure 1: Total market sales and fan chart forecast of yogurt, at current prices, 2008-18
Greek yogurt drives demand
Figure 2: MULO sales of refrigerated yogurt, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
The consumer
Women key audience for spoonable yogurts
Figure 3: Yogurt consumption, by gender, June 2013
Parents may provide growth opportunity
Figure 4: Yogurt types purchased, by presence of children in household, June 2013
Greek yogurt buyers beginning to look for value
Figure 5: Yogurt types purchased, by yogurt pricing attitudes, June 2013
Consumers agree yogurt provides many health benefits
Figure 6: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, June 2013
Affluent consumers demand all-natural ingredients
Figure 7: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by household income, June 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can Greek yogurts continue to drive sales as the market matures?
Insight: There is a significant opportunity for value-priced lines of Greek yogurt
How can marketers better attract parents and kids?
Insight: Market yogurt as a healthier option for kids
How can the supermarket channel compete with Walmart’s growing influence?
Insight: There is opportunity for more private label yogurts, notably Greek
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Help Me Help Myself
Trend: The Man in the Mirror
Mintel Futures: Old Gold
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Yogurt sales top $7 billion in fifth consecutive year of growth
Figure 8: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2008-18
Figure 9: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
Fan chart forecast
Figure 10: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2008-18
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Economic recovery could spark sales growth
Rising prices could affect yogurt sales
Nationwide obesity rates call for increased awareness
Rapid growth of minorities will drive demand
Parents a key demographic for marketers
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Other nutritional snacks present key competitors
Breakfast cereals and other breakfast foods present additional choice
Yogurt now competes with dessert options, too
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Spoonable yogurt accounts for 93% of estimated market share
Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013 (est.)
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SPOONABLE YOGURT
Key points
Greek drives growth for another year
Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of yogurt, at current prices, 2008-13
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—YOGURT DRINKS
Key points
Yogurt drinks sales increase for second consecutive year
Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2008-13
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets slowly losing market share
Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2008-13
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Supermarket yogurt sales estimated to reach $4.9 billion
Figure 15: U.S. supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2008-13
RETAIL CHANNELS—DRUG STORES
Key points
Drug stores account for essentially no yogurt sales
Figure 16: U.S. drug store sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2008-13
RETAIL CHANNELS—OTHER RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Sales through other retail channels continue impressive growth
Figure 17: U.S. sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2008-13
Walmart receives dominant share of grocery shopping
Figure 18: Shopping frequency by supermarket and food store, October 2007-November 2012
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Insights
Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks in the natural channel
Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2011-13*
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-13*
Natural channel sales of yogurt by segment
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment, 2011 and 2013*
Natural channel sales of refrigerated dairy yogurt by type
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated dairy yogurt by type, by segment, 2011* and 2013*
Brands of note
Natural channel sales of breakfast yogurt by organic
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by organic, 2010 and 2012*
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Three companies account for almost 75% market share
Figure 24: MULO sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE—YOGURT
Key points
Dannon Oikos and Chobani win big with consumers
Chobani Champions makes successful pitch at parents
Non-Greek healthy options lose share
Figure 25: MULO sales of refrigerated yogurt, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE—YOGURT DRINKS
Key points
Kid-friendly yogurt drinks drive segment growth
Probiotic yogurt drink products gain appeal
Figure 26: MULO sales of yogurt drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
New Greek product introductions
Dessert-inspired products speak to consumers’ indulgences
Kid-friendly products make a crowded market
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Chobani asks consumers to “Go Real”
Chobani Real is Simple ads
Figure 27: Chobani, real is simple ad, 2013
Figure 28: Chobani, Start with the best ad, 2013
Dannon positions popular Oikos brand as ideal for both genders
Dannon ads speak to genders
Figure 29: Dannon, There’s a new protein in town ad, 2013
Figure 30: Dannon, Linda sacrificed ad, 2013
Yoplait looks to reenergize the brand by refocusing on strengths
Yoplait ad speaks to its strength in variety
Figure 31: Yoplait, Forty delicious flavors ad, 2012
Figure 32: Yoplait, Yoplait Greek 100 ad, 2013
SOCIAL MEDIA—YOGURT AND YOGURT DRINKS
Key points
 KEY SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Figure 33: Key brand metrics, yogurt and yogurt drink brands, July 2013
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 34: Usage and awareness of selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, May 2013
Interaction with brands
Figure 35: Interaction with selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, May 2013
Online conversations
Figure 36: Online conversations on selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, by day July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
Where are people talking about yogurt and yogurt drink brands?
Figure 37: Online conversations on selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, by page type, July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
What are people talking about?
Figure 38: Types of conversations around selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
Figure 39: Types of conversations around selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, by day, July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
 BRAND ANALYSIS
Chobani
Figure 40: Chobani key social media indicators, July 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Yoplait
Figure 41: Yoplait key social media indicators, July 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Activia
Figure 42: Activia key social media indicators, July 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Dannon
Figure 43: Dannon key social media indicators, July 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
Oikos
Figure 44: Oikos key social media indicators, July 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
FAGE
Figure 45: FAGE key social media indicators, July 2013
Key online campaigns
What we think
ADULT USAGE
Key points
Yogurt market crowded with many brands
Figure 46: Yogurt brands, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
Chobani most popular among 34-44s
Figure 47: Yogurt brands, by age, January 2012-March 2013
Opportunity for Chobani and other Greek brands for value line
Figure 48: Yogurt brands, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
YOGURT CONSUMPTION
Key points
One out of four respondents eating more Greek yogurt this year
Figure 49: Yogurt consumption, June 2013
Women key audience for spoonable yogurts
Figure 50: Yogurt consumption, by gender, June 2013
Market opportunity for low-priced Greek option
Figure 51: Yogurt consumption, by household income, June 2013
Natural ingredients key attraction for Greek yogurt buyers
Figure 52: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by yogurt consumption—More, June 2013
Figure 53: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, by yogurt consumption – More, June 2013
Price increases may affect Greek yogurt and yogurt drink consumption
Figure 54: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by yogurt consumption – Less, June 2013
YOGURT TYPES PURCHASED
Key points
Female consumers drive spoonable yogurt segment buying
Figure 55: Yogurt types purchased, by gender, June 2013
High demand for less traditional products among young adults
Figure 56: Yogurt types purchased, by age, June 2013
Yogurt purchased by more affluent consumers
Figure 57: Yogurt types purchased, by household income, June 2013
Parents more likely to buy yogurt of all types
Figure 58: Yogurt types purchased, by presence of children in household, June 2013
Greek yogurt buyers choose health, non-Greek yogurt buyers choose price
Figure 59: Yogurt types purchased, by characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, June 2013
Figure 60: Yogurt types purchased, by characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, June 2013 (continued)
Greek yogurt buyers looking for new values
Figure 61: Yogurt types purchased, by yogurt pricing attitudes, June 2013
Kids think of yogurt drinks as a dessert/treat
Figure 62: Yogurt types purchased, by attitudes regarding yogurt taste and flavors, June 2013
REASONS WHY SPOONABLE YOGURT CHOSEN
Key points
Price is the most important factor
Figure 63: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by gender, June 2013
Young consumers want value, variety, and a known brand
Figure 64: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by age, June 2013
Demand for all-natural ingredients among higher income households
Figure 65: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by household income, June 2013
YOGURT PRICING ATTITUDES
Key points
Pricing concerns not dominating thought
Figure 66: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by gender, June 2013
Young consumers switching to less expensive options
Figure 67: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by age, June 2013
Private label brands just as good for less affluent consumers
Figure 68: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by household income, June 2013
More evidence Greek yogurt buyers now looking to spend less
Figure 69: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by awareness of yogurt or yogurt drink brands, June 2013
Price-sensitive consumers open to private labels
Figure 70: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, June 2013
YOGURT GENERAL ATTITUDES
Key points
Yogurt provides many health benefits, consumers agree
Figure 71: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, by gender, June 2013
Young consumers enjoy thick texture
Figure 72: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, by age, June 2013
YOGURT TASTE AND FLAVORS
Key points
Demand for natural fruit flavors
Figure 73: Attitudes regarding yogurt taste and flavors, by gender, June 2013
Young consumers seek wide variety of health benefits, flavors
Figure 74: Attitudes regarding yogurt taste and flavors, by age, June 2013
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanics embracing the category
Figure 75: Yogurt consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
Opportunity for Chobani and other Greek brands among Hispanics
Figure 76: Yogurt brands, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
Hispanics purchasing yogurt varieties attractive to kids
Figure 77: Yogurt types purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
Black consumers interested in new flavors from known brands
Figure 78: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
Large-size yogurt attractive to blacks, Asians, Hispanics
Figure 79: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Cluster analysis
Cluster 1: Enthusiasts
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster 2: Traditionalists
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster 3: Uninspireds
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster methodology
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 80: Target clusters, June 2013
Figure 81: Yogurt consumption, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 82: Yogurt types purchased, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 83: Characteristics affecting which spoonable yogurt types chosen, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 84: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 85: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 86: Attitudes regarding yogurt taste and flavors, by target clusters, June 2013
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 87: Target clusters, June 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence
Figure 88: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 89: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 90: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 91: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Food cost pressures
Figure 92: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011 through June 25, 2013
Obesity
Figure 93: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
Childhood and teen obesity—highest in decades
Figure 94: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 95: U.S. population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 96: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 97: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 98: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
APPENDIX—SOCIAL MEDIA—YOGURT AND YOGURT DRINKS
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 99: Brand usage or awareness, May 2013
Figure 100: Dannon usage or awareness, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 101: Yoplait usage or awareness, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 102: Activia usage or awareness, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 103: Chobani usage or awareness, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 104: Oikos usage or awareness, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 105: FAGE usage or awareness, by demographics, May 2013
Activities done
Figure 106: Activities done, May 2013
Figure 107: Dannon – Activities done, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 108: Activia – Activities done, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 109: Chobani – Activities done, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 110: Oikos – Activities done, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 111: FAGE – Activities done, by demographics, May 2013
Online conversations
Figure 112: Online conversations on selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, by day July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
Figure 113: Online conversations on selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, by page type, July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
Figure 114: Types of conversations around selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
Figure 115: Types of conversations around selected yogurt and yogurt drink brands, by day, July 2-Aug. 1, 2013
APPENDIX – OTHER TABLES
Yogurt consumption and age
Figure 116: Yogurt consumption, by age, June 2013
Agreement with yogurt attitudes and household income
Figure 117: Agreement with yogurt attitudes, by household income, June 2013
Attitudes regarding yogurt taste and flavors and household income
Figure 118: Attitudes regarding yogurt taste and flavors, by household income, June 2013
Yogurt pricing attitudes and race/Hispanic origin
Figure 119: Yogurt pricing attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
CHAID ANALYSIS—YOGURT AND YOGURT DRINKS
Methodology
Parents who like all-natural fruit choosing Yoplait
Figure 120: Eaten/purchased the following yogurt or yogurt drink brands—CHAID—Tree output, May, 2013
Figure 121: Eaten/purchased the following yogurt or yogurt drink brands—CHAID—Table output, May, 2013
APPENDIX – SYMPHONYIRI BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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