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Dining Out: A 2013 Look Ahead - US - January 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Restaurant sales took off in 2012
Figure 1: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-12
Limited-service restaurants outperformed full-service, but the latter saw a significant lift
Figure 2: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, by segment, 2012
Restaurant sales are expected to reach $550 billion in 2017
Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, fan chart, 2007-17
Market factors
Economics show mixed signs
Figure 4: Consumer sentiment, January 2007-November 2012
Demographics look positive for foodservice
2013 look ahead at menu/operational trends
Menu insights
Beef is what’s for dinner
Figure 5: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2012
Sushi and burgers present opportunity to increase prices
Among beverages, shakes are hot
The consumer
Consumers most gravitate toward fast food and pizza
Figure 6: Restaurant usage percentage, October 2012
Consumers state their dining out plans for 2013
Figure 7: Dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How will high obesity rates affect the restaurant industry?
Will the severe drought of 2012 have lasting effects on the industry?
How bullish are consumers on their restaurant spending for 2013?
What menu claims are currently resonating?
What are the biggest restaurant choice influence factors for Millennials?
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Help kids’ menus
Time for tea
Figure 8: Top non-alcoholic beverages on menus at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Welcome Hispanics
TREND APPLICATIONS
Inspire Trend: Moral Brands
Inspire Trend: Guiding Choice
2015 Trend: Access Anything, Anywhere
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Consumers spent a lot more at restaurants in 2012
Sales and forecast of restaurants
Figure 9: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 10: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
Figure 11: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 12: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
Figure 13: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 14: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Fan chart forecast
Figure 15: U.S. restaurant sales, fan chart, 2007-17
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Economic indicators show some improvement
Unemployment rate declines slightly, but remains high
Figure 16: Incidence of unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-November 2012
Consumer sentiment on the rise
Figure 17: Consumer sentiment, January 2007-November 2012
Figure 18: spending attitudes, October 2012
Restaurant Performance Index falls below 100
Figure 19: Restaurant Performance Index, February 2009-October 2012
Affordable Care Act
Figure 20: Restaurant choice influence factors, by gender and age, October 2012
Obesity drives changes
Figure 21: Overweight and obesity rates for adults by race/ethnicity, 2010
Figure 22: Dining out attitudes, October 2011 and October 2012
Population shift reflects differing habits and attitudes
Figure 23: U.S. population, by age, 2006-16
Figure 24: Restaurant usage, by generation, October 2012
Hispanics will make their mark
Figure 25: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Figure 26: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2010
2013 LOOK AHEAD
Key points
Commodity prices shake up protein usage
Figure 27: Per capita consumption of beef, pork, and chicken, in pounds, 2007-13
Smaller chicken portions take over
Chicken sandwiches get burger treatment
Peanut butter becomes an attractive protein
Beverages get major attention
Alcohol and then some
Coffee is the new snack and dessert
Carbonating everything
Clean food labels
Better treatment of animals
Better treatment of the earth
Food anywhere, anytime!
Morning and late-night business are open targets for some
Going where the business is
Figure 28: Restaurant usage, by age, October 2012
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Television ads
Burger King
Figure 29: Burger King, First Craving television ad, 2012
Applebee’s
Figure 30: Applebee’s, Your Inflatable Ticket television ad, 2012
Denny’s
Figure 31: Denny’s, America the Great television ad, 2012
Taco Bell
Figure 32: Taco Bell, Love it or We’ll Replace it television ad, 2012
Olive Garden
Figure 33: Olive Garden, Today & Tomorrow television ad, 2012
Cause marketing
Loyalty programs
Meal deals
SOCIAL MEDIA—DINING OUT: A 2013 LOOK AHEAD
Key points
 KEY SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Figure 34: Key brand metrics, November 2012
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 35: Usage and awareness of selected restaurant brands, October 2012
Interaction with brands
Figure 36: Interaction with restaurant brands, October 2012
Motivations for interactions with brands
Figure 37: Why people interact with restaurant brands, October 2012
Online conversations
Figure 38: Percentage of consumer conversation, by selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27- Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 39: Online mentions, selected restaurant brands, percent of total daily mentions, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Where are people talking about restaurant brands?
Figure 40: Mentions by page type, selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
What are people talking about?
Figure 41: Mentions by type of conversation, selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 42: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 43: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by page type, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
 BRAND ANALYSIS
McDonald’s
Figure 44: McDonald’s, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Pizza Hut
Figure 45: Pizza Hut, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
Figure 46: Pizza Hut Twitter Mention, October 2012
What we think
Starbucks
Figure 47: Starbucks, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Chipotle
Figure 48: Chipotle, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Chili’s
Figure 49: Chili’s, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Panera Bread
Figure 50: Panera Bread, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Five Guys
Figure 51: 5 Guys, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Morton’s the Steakhouse
Figure 52: Morton’s the Steakhouse, key social media indicators, November 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS—TOP MENU ITEMS
Key points
Beef shifts reflect commodity prices
Chicken picks up some slack
Fish fits well in a BFY future
Breakfast sandwiches continue to rise
Figure 53: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Menu item prices
Figure 54: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence and price, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Beverage menu shows opportunity for growth
Smoothies are versatile
Milkshakes play to snackable and dessert indulgence
Lemonade hosts a variety of flavors
Figure 55: Top 10 non-alcoholic beverages on menus at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Cocktails increase 27% in three years
Figure 56: Top 10 alcoholic cocktail beverages on menus at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS—TOP MENU ITEM CLAIMS
Key points
“Gluten free” becomes top menu item claim
Nostalgic claims come on strong
Not big on healthy
Figure 57: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
Ingredient claims favor “light”
Terms of yesteryear
Figure 58: Top 10 menu health-oriented ingredient claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2012
RESTAURANT USAGE
Key points
Restaurant definitions
Fast food and pizza restaurants draw the most customers
Millennials are big restaurant fans
Figure 59: Restaurant usage, by gender and age, October 2012
High-income earners not as price sensitive
Figure 60: Restaurant usage, by household income, October 2012
Midwest presents opportunities for fast food chains
Figure 61: Restaurant usage, by region, October 2012
ORDERING AND EATING LOGISTICS
Key points
Eating on premise is much more common than drive-thru
Figure 62: Ordering and eating logistics, by gender and age, October 2012
High-income earners most apt to eat on premise
Figure 63: Ordering and eating logistics, by household income, October 2012
DINING OUT AND SPENDING PLANS
Key points
Few plan to dine out more in 2013
Figure 64: Dining out plans for 2013, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 65: Dining out plans for 2013, by household income, October 2012
Sit-down dining gets the nod
Figure 66: Restaurant segment plans for 2013, October 2012
Most will look for less expensive dining options
Figure 67: Restaurant spending plans, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 68: Restaurant spending plans, by household income, October 2012
INFLUENCE FACTORS
Key points
Calorie posting and environmental issues influence choices
Figure 69: Restaurant choice influence factors, October 2012
What Millennials want, they should get
Figure 70: Restaurant choice influence factors, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 71: Restaurant choice influence factors, by household income, October 2012
Technology is important to those planning to dine out more
Figure 72: Restaurant choice influence factors, by dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
ATTITUDES TOWARD SPENDING AND DINING OUT
Key points
The economy hinders dining out spending
Figure 73: spending attitudes, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 74: spending attitudes, by dining out plans, October 2012
Cravings and price are determining factors
Figure 75: Dining out attitudes, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 76: Dining out attitudes, by household income, October 2012
Figure 77: Dining out attitudes, by dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
BEVERAGE PURCHASE BEHAVIOR
Key points
Soft drinks play an important role on the menu
Figure 78: Non-alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, October 2012
Millennial men are beverages’ best customers
Figure 79: Non-alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 80: Non-alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by household income, October 2012
Most adults do not order alcohol when they dine out
Figure 81: Alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, October 2012
Figure 82: Alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by gender and age, October 2012
Figure 83: Alcoholic beverage purchase behavior, by annual household income, October 2012
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Restaurant usage
Figure 84: Restaurant usage, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
Ordering and eating logistics
Figure 85: Ordering and eating logistics, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
Dining out and spending plans
Figure 86: Dining out plans for 2013, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
Figure 87: Restaurant spending plans, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
Influence factors
Figure 88: Restaurant choice influence factors, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
Attitudes toward dining out
Figure 89: Dining out attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2012
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Struggling Dynamos
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Health Buffs
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Steady Stoics
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 90: Target clusters, October 2012
Figure 91: Restaurant usage, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 92: Ordering and eating logistics, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 93: Dining out plans for 2013, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 94: Restaurant spending plans, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 95: Restaurant choice influence factors, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 96: Spending attitudes, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 97: Dining out attitudes, by target clusters, October 2012
Figure 98: Beverage purchase behavior, by target clusters, October 2012
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 99: Target clusters, by demographic, October 2012
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS—PRESENCE OF CHILDREN
Key points
Segments should plan for families
Figure 100: Restaurant usage, by presence of children in household, October 2012
Price promotions remain important
Figure 101: Dining out plans for 2013, by presence of children in household, October 2012
Figure 102: Restaurant spending plans, by presence of children in household, October 2012
Healthy kids’ meals is most important
Figure 103: Restaurant choice influence factors, by presence of children in household, October 2012
Speed and convenience mean everything
Figure 104: Dining out and spending attitudes, by presence of children in household, October 2012
Go premium on beverages to pick up some profits
Figure 105: Beverage purchase behavior, by presence of children in household, October 2012
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Restaurant usage
Figure 106: Restaurant usage, by gender, October 2012
Figure 107: Restaurant usage, by dining out plans for 2013, October 2012
Ordering and eating logistics
Figure 108: Ordering and eating logistics, by gender, October 2012
Figure 109: Ordering and eating logistics, by age, October 2012
Dining out and spending plans
Figure 110: Dining out plans for 2013, by gender, October 2012
Figure 111: Dining out plans for 2013, by age, October 2012
Restaurant spending plans
Figure 112: Restaurant spending plans, by age, October 2012
Influence factors
Figure 113: Restaurant choice influence factors, by gender, October 2012
Figure 114: Restaurant choice influence factors, by age, October 2012
Attitudes toward dining out and spending
Figure 115: Dining out attitudes, October 2012
Figure 116: Dining out and spending attitudes, by gender, October 2012
Figure 117: Dining out and spending attitudes, by age, October 2012
Figure 118: Dining out and spending attitudes, by region, October 2012
Beverage purchase behavior
Figure 119: Beverage purchase behavior, by age, October 2012
APPENDIX: SOCIAL MEDIA—RESTAURANTS
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 120: Usage and awareness of the Five Guys brand, October 2012
Figure 121: Usage and awareness of the McDonald’s brand, October 2012
Figure 122: Usage and awareness of the chipotle brand, October 2012
Figure 123: Usage and awareness of the Panera Bread brand, October 2012
Figure 124: Usage and awareness of the Chili's brand, October 2012
Figure 125: Usage and awareness of the Pizza Hut brand, October 2012
Figure 126: Usage and awareness of the Morton's the Steakhouse brand, October 2012
Figure 127: Usage and awareness of the Starbucks brand, October 2012
Interaction with brands
Figure 128: Interaction with the Five Guys brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 129: Interaction with the McDonald's brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 130: Interaction with the Chipotle brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 131: Interaction with the Panera Bread brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 132: Interaction with the Chili's brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 133: Interaction with the Pizza Hut brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 134: Interaction with the Starbucks brand, by demographics, October 2012
Motivations for interaction
Figure 135: Reason for interaction with the McDonald’s brand, by demographics, October 2012
Figure 136: Reason for interaction with the Pizza Hut brand, by demographics, October 2012
Online conversations
Figure 137: Percentage of consumer conversation, by restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 138: Online mentions, by restaurant brands, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 139: Mentions by page type, selected restaurant brands, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 140: Online mentions, by selected restaurant brands, by type of conversation, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 141: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by day, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
Figure 142: Major areas of discussion surrounding restaurant brands, by type of website, Aug. 27-Nov. 27, 2012
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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