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Beer - US - December 2012

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
The market
Dollar sales stay steady while beer volume fluctuates
Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of U.S. beer market, at current prices, 2007-17
Market factors
Wine and spirits also attract curious alcohol drinkers
Consumers are cutting back on beer in the name of health
Figure 2: Top five attitudes and behaviors for reducing personal beer consumption, July 2012
Beer needs to encourage loyalty among growing population segments
Retail channels
Recession-shocked consumers prefer to drink beer at home
Figure 3: Total U.S. volume and dollar sales of beer, by location, 2012
Key players
Despite declines, most major brewers stick with packaging, marketing ploys
Figure 4: Market share of top five beer suppliers, by volume, 2011
The consumer
Dropping volumes do not keep domestic beer from top preference slot
Figure 5: Incidence and frequency of any personal beer consumption, by type of beer, July 2012
Women interested in low-calorie, affordable beer options
Figure 6: Important attributes when selecting beer, by gender, July 2012
Imported beer more likely to be an occasional beer selection
Figure 7: Incidence and frequency of beer consumption, by beer type, July 2012
Hispanics more likely to choose beers due to recommendations from peers
Figure 8: Beer drinking attitudes and behaviors on discovery and peers, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What can continue to drive sales of flagship beer brands?
How can imported beer brands recapture momentum?
What tactics should be leveraged to encourage trial of new products?
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Reposition domestic beer as premium with high-end innovations
Imported beer should take a cue from wine and go casual
Address calorie concerns with up-front labeling
Bring on-premise experience home with gift packs
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Patriot Games
Trend: Secret, Secret
2015 Trend: Brand Intervention
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Dollar sales performance masks volume dilemmas
Craft-beer-inspired innovations leading industry’s rebound
Sales and forecast of U.S. beer market
Figure 9: Total U.S. unit sales and forecast of U.S. beer market, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2007-17
Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of U.S. beer market, at current prices, 2007-17
Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of U.S. beer market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
Fan chart forecast
Figure 12: Total U.S. unit sales fan chart forecast of U.S. beer market, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2007-17
Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of U.S. beer market, at current prices, 2007-17
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Entire Millennial generation will be of legal drinking age in 2015
Figure 14: Population, by generation, 2012
Growth in Hispanic, Asian populations could buoy up beer performance
Figure 15: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2007-17
Figure 16: Hispanic population aged 21 or older, by age, 2007-17
Figure 17: Asian population aged 21 or older, by age, 2007-17
Beer faces stiff competition from wine and spirits
Figure 18: Type of white spirits and RTDs consumed in the past six months, by gender and age, July 2012
Figure 19: Consumption of dark spirits, by type, by gender and age, May 2012
Figure 20: Frequency of wine consumption, by type, by age, June 2012
Health concerns driving consumers away from alcohol
Figure 21: Obesity, by age group, 2008 vs. 2012
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Wine poses biggest threat to beer
Spirits’ variety captures consumers
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Volume declines plague beer, while dollar sales show annual growth
Domestic unable to crack the code while imported rebounds
Sales and forecast of U.S. beer market, by segment
Figure 22: Sales of U.S. beer market in 000 2.25-gallon cases, by type, 2007 and 2012
Warm weather fuels beer sales, seasonals could heat up cold periods
Figure 23: Beer sales by month, share of total, 2010-11
Figure 24: Beer drinking attitudes and behaviors, Seasonal beer, July 2012
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – DOMESTIC BEER
Key points
Domestic beer market finding its way back to positive volumes
Sales and forecast of domestic beer
Figure 25: Sales and forecast of domestic beer, at current prices, 2007-17
Domestic’s subsegments provide landscape for growth
Figure 26: Total U.S. volume sales of domestic beer, by sub-segment, 2007-12
Annual declines do not prevent light beer from retaining its top spot
Figure 27: Usage—Light/Low-calorie beer, April 2007-June 2012
Figure 28: Mean usage—Light/Low-calorie beer, April 2007-June 2012
Light domestic beer appeals to men, but also should target women
Figure 29: Usage—Light/Low-calorie beer, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
Premium and popular beer brands take a hit, while ice beer avoids slips
Figure 30: Usage—Regular domestic beer, April 2007-June 2012
Figure 31: Mean usage—Regular domestic beer, April 2007-June 2012
Super-premium, craft, and FMBs lead domestic beer’s growth
Figure 32: Consumption of beer, by category, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2010-11
Small, but steady usage not enough to bolster malt liquor
Figure 33: Usage—Malt liquor, April 2007-June 2012
Figure 34: Mean usage—Malt liquor, April 2007-June 2012
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – IMPORTED BEER
Key points
Imported beer slowly recapturing momentum
Sales and forecast of imported beer
Figure 35: Sales and forecast of imported beer, at current prices, 2007-17
New brands, variety could help attain pre-recession consumption levels
Figure 36: Mean usage—Imported beer, April 2007-June 2012
Light imported beer provides an opportunity for growth
Figure 37: Total U.S. volume sales of imported beer, by type, 2007-12
Figure 38: Usage—Imported beer, by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Consumers remain shut-ins as on-premise volume continues to fall
Off-premise dollar sales spiral upward while volume sales decrease
Figure 39: Total U.S. volume sales of beer, by location, 2007-12
Figure 40: Total U.S. dollar sales of beer, by location, 2007-12
Alcohol prices increased faster on-premise than off-premise
RETAIL CHANNELS – ON-PREMISE
Key points
On-premise volume sales slow free-fall reported since start of downturn
Premium options help stabilize beer mentions on menus
Figure 41: Top menu item claim for beer in buffets, chain restaurants, independents, non-commercial locations, top 100 chain restaurants, and top chefs, Q3 2012
Casual dining outlets showcase the power of beer spotlight
Figure 42: Domestic beer by restaurant segment in buffets, chain restaurants, independents, non-commercial locations, top 100 chain restaurants, and top chefs, Q3 2012
Education, selection help to encourage on-premise beer sales
RETAIL CHANNELS – OFF-PREMISE
Key points
Beer dollar sales led by convenience stores
Figure 43: Total U.S. retail (off-premise) dollar sales of beer, by channel, 2007-12
Convenience stores remain a top choice for beer buyers
Figure 44: Total U.S. convenience store dollar sales of beer, 2007-12
Selection fuels liquor/package store, supermarket sales
Figure 45: Total U.S. liquor/package store sales of beer, 2007-12
Figure 46: Total U.S. supermarket dollar sales of beer, 2007-12
Natural channel sales show emphasis on brand narratives
Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of beer, at current prices, 2010-12*
Imported beer outsells domestic in natural channel
Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of beer, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12*
Supermarket, liquor stores are consumer-favored beer retailers
Figure 49: Retail channel preferences, by type of beer, July 2012
High-income domestic beer buyers embrace club stores
Figure 50: Retail channel preferences for domestic beer, by household income, July 2012
Specialty beverage shops attract high-income imported beer shoppers
Figure 51: Retail channel preferences for imported beer, by household income, July 2012
Selection, price most influential for beer purchases across retailers
Figure 52: Beer purchase attitudes and behavior, by type of beer, July 2012
Northeastern beer buyers like selection, Midwest goes for promotions
Figure 53: Beer purchase attitudes and behavior, by region, July 2012
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
A-B InBev reasserts U.S. dominance with Bud Light branded innovations
Tenth and Blake helps MillerCoors remain profitable
Crown Imports grows volume through marketing, new brands
Dos Equis leads Heineken’s U.S. performance, inspires strategy
Manufacturer shipments of U.S. beer market
Figure 54: Total beer market shipments by supplier, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2006-11
BRAND SHARE – DOMESTIC BEER
Key points
Domestic light beer dominates U.S. beer market in sales, preferences
Figure 55: Light/Low-calorie beer (cans or bottles), by gender and age, April 2011-June 2012
Figure 56: Top 20 beer brands, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2010 and 2011
Bud Light rolls out line extensions, MillerCoors plays with packaging
Coors, Pabst Blue Ribbon show gains in regular domestic beer segment
Figure 57: Usage—Regular domestic beer, April 2007-June 2012
To reverse sales declines, A-B InBev invests in Budweiser
Yuengling captures volume growth with distribution expansion
Malt liquor shipments fall as consumption continues to decline
Figure 58: Leading brands of malt liquor, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2010 and 2011
Cocktail inspiration helps flavored malt beverages grow
Figure 59: Leading flavored malt beverage brands, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2010 and 2011
BRAND SHARE – IMPORTED BEER
Key points
Consumer curiosity helps imported beer rebound from recession
Figure 60: Leading imported beer brands, in 000 2.25-gallon cases, 2010 and 2011
Figure 61: Usage—Imported beer, April 2007-June 2012
Crown Imports aims to make Modelo Especial more “interesting”
Figure 62: Modelo Especial, television ad, 2012
Dos Equis updates packaging to continue upward trajectory
Heineken, Stella Artois go classy in order to gain drinkers
Newcastle embodies “No Bollocks” motto with heritage ad campaign
Figure 63: Newcastle Brown Ale, television ad, 2012
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Line extensions provide innovation without reintroduction
Packaging changes dominate domestic product releases
Imported beers seek consumer connection through limited-edition beers
Variety packs target curious, but cautious, beer drinkers
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the U.S. beer market
Brand analysis: Budweiser
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 64: Budweiser, television ad, 2012
Print and other
Brand analysis: Miller Lite
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 65: Miller Lite, television ad, 2012
Print and other
Brand analysis: Heineken
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 66: Heineken, television ad, 2012
Brand analysis: Corona Light
Online initiatives
TV presence
Figure 67: Corona Light, television ad, 2012
SOCIAL MEDIA – BEER
Key points
Key social media metrics
Figure 68: Key performance indicators
Market overview
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 69: Brand usage and awareness of beer brands, November 2012
Brand satisfaction
Figure 70: Levels of satisfaction with selected beer brands, November 2012
Interaction with beer brands
Figure 71: Interaction with beer brands, November 2012
Motivations for interacting with beer brands
Figure 72: Why people interact with beer brands, November 2012
Online conversations
Figure 73: Average number of mentions of selected beer brands, by day, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 74: Percentage of online consumer conversation, by selected beer brands, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 75: Trends in online mentions of selected beer brands, by week, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012,
Where people are talking about beer?
Figure 76: Online mentions of selected beer brands, by page type, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
What are people talking about?
Figure 77: Online mentions by types of conversations concerning selected beer brands, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 78: Types of online conversation regarding selected beer brands, by day, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 79: Types of online conversations regarding selected beer brands, by type of website, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
 ANALYSIS BY BRAND
Brand analysis: Bud Light
Figure 80: Bud Light—key social media indicators, as of Nov. 26, 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Brand analysis: Corona
Figure 81: Corona—key social media indicators, as of Nov. 26, 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Brand analysis: Heineken
Figure 82: Heineken—key social media indicators, as of Nov. 26, 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Brand analysis: Coors Light
Figure 83: Coors Light—key social media indicators, as of Nov. 13, 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Brand analysis: Miller Lite
Figure 84: Miller Lite—key social media indicators, as of Nov. 13, 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
Brand analysis: Dos Equis
Figure 85: Dos Equis—key social media indicators, as of Nov. 13, 2012
Key online campaigns
What we think
THE CONSUMER – BEER USAGE, TYPES, AND PREFERENCES
Key points
Despite volume declines, domestic retains spot as top beer choice
Figure 86: Incidence and frequency of personal beer consumption, by type of beer, July 2012
Craft beer gaining more consumption occasions
Figure 87: Alterations in beer consumption habits, by type of beer, July 2012
Health, expense the main reasons for cutting back on beer
Figure 88: Attitudes and behaviors explaining a reduction in personal beer consumption, July 2012
Beer drinkers earning $75K-99.9K choose options from across segments
Figure 89: Volume consumption of beer, by type of beer, by household income, July 2012
Millennials most likely to drink a variety of beer types
Figure 90: Incidence and frequency of any beer consumption, by type of beer, by generation, July 2012
Beer discovery important to younger, mostly male, drinkers
Figure 91: Beer drinking attitudes and behaviors, by gender and age, July 2012
Women most interested in price, lighter beer options
Figure 92: Important attributes when selecting beer, by gender, July 2012
THE CONSUMER – DOMESTIC BEER USAGE AND PREFERENCES
Key points
Domestic beer has most universal appeal among 21+ consumers
Figure 93: Incidence and frequency of domestic beer consumption, by gender and age, July 2012
Middle-aged consumers are highest-volume domestic drinkers
Figure 94: Volume consumption of domestic beer, by age, July 2012
Midwesterners most frequent and highest-volume domestic drinkers
Figure 95: Incidence and frequency of domestic beer consumption, by region, July 2012
Figure 96: Volume consumption of domestic beer, by region, July 2012
Young women give domestic beer high points for light options
Figure 97: Attitude and behaviors toward domestic beer, by gender and age, July 2012
Women drink domestic light beer in social situations
Figure 98: Domestic beer consumption occasion and location, by gender and age, July 2012
Most domestic drinkers are not picky about brands, types
Figure 99: Domestic beer drinking attitudes and behaviors, July 2012
Middle-aged men prefer craft’s taste, but see domestic as a better value
Figure 100: Attitudes toward taste and value, domestic vs. craft beer, by gender and age, July 2012
Millennials show preference for taste of craft beer
Figure 101: Attitudes toward taste and value, domestic vs. craft beer, by generation, July 2012
Domestic beer loses to imported beer among Millennials, Generation X
Figure 102: Attitudes toward taste and value, domestic vs. imported beer, by generation, July 2012
THE CONSUMER – IMPORTED BEER USAGE AND PREFERENCES
Key points
Consumers work imported beer into drinking rotation
Figure 103: Incidence and frequency of imported beer consumption, by gender and age, July 2012
Nearly a majority of drinkers drink one to four imported beers
Figure 104: Volume consumption of imported beer, by age, July 2012
Coastal Americans keen on beers from abroad
Figure 105: Incidence and frequency of imported beer consumption, by region, July 2012
Figure 106: Volume consumption of imported beer, by region, July 2012
Young men most opinionated about imported beer
Figure 107: Attitudes and behaviors toward imported beer, by gender and age, July 2012
Young women most apt to drink imported beer while socializing
Figure 108: Imported beer consumption occasion and location, by gender and age, July 2012
Imported beer drinkers curious about new releases
Figure 109: Imported beer drinking attitudes and behaviors, July 2012
Generation X prefers taste of craft to imported, both similar in value
Figure 110: Attitudes toward taste and value, imported vs. craft beer, by generation, July 2012
THE CONSUMER – MALT LIQUOR USAGE AND PREFERENCES
Key points
Malt liquor least frequently consumed among all beer segments
Figure 111: Incidence and frequency of malt liquor/malt beverage consumption, by gender, July 2012
Millennials’ cross-segment consumption includes malt liquor brands
Figure 112: Incidence and frequency of malt liquor/malt beverage consumption, by generation, July 2012
Taste, price important to malt liquor drinkers
Figure 113: Important attributes when selecting malt liquor/malt beverages, July 2012
Malt liquor drinkers concerned about food pairings, freshness
Figure 114: Malt liquor/malt beverage beer drinking attitudes and behaviors, July 2012
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN – USAGE AND PURCHASE
Key points
Hispanics, Asians report highest frequencies of beer consumption
Figure 115: Incidence of any beer consumption, by type of beer, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Hispanics turn to domestic brands more often than imported beer
Figure 116: Incidence and frequency of domestic beer consumption by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Figure 117: Incidence and frequency of imported beer consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Bud Light finds niche with non-white consumers
Figure 118: Light/Low-calorie beer (cans or bottles), by race/Hispanic origin, April 2011-June 2012
Figure 119: Light/Low-calorie beer (cans or bottles), by Hispanic origin and age, April 2011-June 2012
Supermarkets, liquor stores rank as most popular beer retailers
Figure 120: Retail channel preferences, by type of beer, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Hispanics show varying retail channel preferences by beer segment
Figure 121: Retail channel preferences, by domestic beer, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
Figure 122: Retail channel preferences, by imported beer, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
On-premise consumption less likely among minority consumers
Figure 123: Beer consumption location, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Hispanics increasing consumption of imported, domestic beer
Figure 124: Alterations in imported beer consumption habits, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Figure 125: Alterations in domestic beer consumption habits, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN – ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS
Key points
Health a key concern for Hispanic beer drinkers
Figure 126: Attitudes and behaviors for a reduction in beer consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
Taste, brand, price connect with Hispanic consumers
Figure 127: Important attributes when selecting beer, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
Calories, patriotism inspire domestic beer purchases
Figure 128: Attitudes and behaviors toward domestic beer, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Hispanics concerned about price of imports, despite taste preference
Figure 129: Attitudes and behaviors toward imported beer, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2012
Peers a strong influence on Hispanic beer choices
Figure 130: Beer drinking attitudes and behaviors on discovery and peers, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
Hispanics split on beer’s match with food
Figure 131: Beer drinking attitudes and behaviors on food pairing, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT – HARD CIDER MAKES A COMEBACK
Cider’s recent boom
Hard cider has potential for further U.S. growth
Companies and brands
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Beer usage, types, and preferences
Figure 132: Incidence and frequency of personal beer consumption, by type of beer, by gender, July 2012
Figure 133: Incidence and frequency of any personal beer consumption, by generation, July 2012
Figure 134: Volume consumption of beer, by type of beer, July 2012
Figure 135: Volume consumption of beer, by type of beer, by Hispanic origin, July 2012
Figure 136: Volume consumption of beer, by type of beer, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2012
Attitudes and behaviors toward beer
Figure 137: Beer drinking attitudes and behaviors, by generation, July 2012
Figure 138: Important attributes when selecting beer, by generation, July 2012
Figure 139: Important attributes when selecting beer for personal consumption, by type of beer, July 2012
Retail preferences
Figure 140: Retail channel preferences, by any beer, by generation, July 2012
Figure 141: Beer purchase attitudes and behaviors, by generation, July 2012,
Beer consumption occasions and locations
Figure 142: Beer consumption occasions and locations by type of beer, July 2012
Figure 143: Beer consumption occasions and locations by any beer, by generation, July 2012
Changes in beer consumption
Figure 144: Alterations in beer consumption habits, by any beer, by gender and age, July 2012
Figure 145: Attitudes and behaviors explaining a reduction in beer consumption, by type of beer, July 2012
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA – BEER
Brand usage and awareness
Figure 146: Usage and awareness of the Bud Light brand, October 2012
Figure 147: Usage and awareness of the Coors Light brand, October 2012
Figure 148: Usage and awareness of the Corona brand, October 2012
Figure 149: Usage and awareness of the Dos Equis brand, October 2012
Figure 150: Usage and awareness of the Heineken brand, October 2012
Figure 151: Usage and awareness of the Miller Lite brand, October 2012
Satisfaction with brands
Figure 152: Satisfaction with brands, November 2012
Figure 153: Satisfaction with the Bud Light brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 154: Satisfaction with the Coors Light brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 155: Satisfaction with the Corona brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 156: Satisfaction with the Dos Equis brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 157: Satisfaction with the Heineken brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 158: Satisfaction with the Miller Lite brand, by demographics, November 2012
Interaction with brands
Figure 159: Interaction with the Bud Light brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 160: Interaction with the Coors Light brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 161: Interaction with the Corona brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 162: Interaction with the Dos Equis brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 163: Interaction with the Heineken brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 164: Interaction with the Miller Lite brand, by demographics, November 2012
Motivations for interaction
Figure 165: Reason for interaction with the Bud Light brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 166: Reason for interaction with the Coors Light brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 167: Reason for interaction with the Corona brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 168: Reason for interaction with the Heineken brand, by demographics, November 2012
Figure 169: Reason for interaction with the Miller Lite brand, by demographics, November 2012
Online conversations
Figure 170: Average number of mentions of selected beer brands, by day, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 171: Select beer brands’ share of conversations, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 172: Conversations by brand, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Where people are talking about white spirits brands
Figure 173: Selected beers brands’ share of brand conversations, by page type, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
What are people talking about?
Figure 174: Types of conversations concerning selected beer brands, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 175: Types of conversation regarding selected beer brands, by day, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
Figure 176: Types of conversation regarding selected beer brands, by type of website, Sept. 19-Nov. 19, 2012
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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