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Pub Visiting - UK - April 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Light at the end of the tunnel for the pubs industry?
Figure 1: UK pub industry market size and forecast 2006-16
Market factors
Figure 2: Trends in visiting pubs/bars for a drink or a meal, Q1 2007-Q1 2012
Pub visiting declines
Competition from in-home drinking intensifies…
… but minimum pricing could ease some of those pressures
More red tape
Closures continue but rate of closures slows
Government opts for further voluntary regulation
Britons drinking less
Economy and confidence hold pubs back
Companies, products and innovation
Figure 3: Leading UK pub operators, by turnover, 2010/11
The consumer
Figure 4: Pub visiting frequency, February 2012
Figure 5: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 6: Pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
Figure 7: Attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
Figure 8: Pub target groups, February 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How might minimum pricing impact on the pubs industry?
What opportunities are presented by the Jubilee, Euro 2012 and Olympics?
What can pubs do to mitigate the impact of rising costs?
How can pubs capitalise on the trend towards localism?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: Experience Is All
Trend: Let’s Make a Deal
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Pub visiting – particularly for a meal – continues to decline
Figure 9: Trends in visiting pubs/bars for a drink or a meal, Q1 2007-Q1 2012
Figure 10: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink or for a meal, at least once a week, 2007-11
Consumers still enjoy a night out at the pub when they go
Figure 11: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on drinking, 2007-11
Out of home drinking declines sharply
Figure 12: Trends in consumption of alcohol, in home versus out of home (past 12 months), 2007-11
Figure 13: Drinking habits, by where they drink – over-18s and 18-24s, 2011
Drink and be merry
Figure 14: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on drinking, by age, 2007-11
The drinks gender gap
Figure 15: Types of drink drunk in a bar/café/pub/restaurant, by gender, 2011
Per capita alcohol consumption in decline
Figure 16: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-10
Smokers still visit pubs despite ban
Figure 17: Cigarette smoking, by participation in selected leisure activities, July-September 2011
On-trade price rises outstrip inflation as on/off differential grows
Figure 18: Trends in all prices versus those of alcoholic drinks, by channel, 2006-11
On-trade beer decline continues as gap between channels narrows
Figure 19: Volume trends in the sales of beer by channel, 2006-11
Minimum alcohol price pledge offers some hope to on-trade
Late-night levy and Early Morning Restriction Orders increase pressure
Beer duty increase in 2012 Budget set to push prices higher still
Figure 20: Average price paid for a pint of draught lager in UK, 1991-2011
Figure 21: Trends in real ale and lager prices in pubs, 2008-11
Rising food prices put pressure on catering element
Figure 22: Trends in all prices versus those of food and catering, 2006-11
Utility price rises place further pressure on publicans
Figure 23: Trends in utility prices* paid by non-domestic consumers, 2006-11
Business rates set to jump
Figure 24: Trends in the average rateable value of pubs in England & Wales, 2005-11
On-trade clubs together
Gaming machine revenue sources under threat
Figure 25: Gaming machines (eg in a pub/bookmakers) played/taken part, 2006-11
Sky Sports price freeze provides temporary respite for publicans
Figure 26: Watching sports in pubs, bars or clubs, 2010-11
The changing structure of the pub trade
Figure 27: Trends in pub openings and closures 2007-11
Figure 28: Trends in pub openings and closures by tenure, 2008-11
Voluntary code of practice: better protection for leaseholders and tenants?
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Household income squeeze continues
Figure 29: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2011 prices, 2006-16
Figure 30: Trends in UK Quarterly GDP, Q1 2006-Q4 2011
Figure 31: Trends in consumer confidence, January 2008-February 2012
Growth in numbers of 25-34-year-old men positive for pubs
Figure 32: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2006-16
ABC growth set to favour pubs
Figure 33: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
Retired and family lifestages set to show most growth
Figure 34: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
VAT hike hits pubs hard
Figure 35: Trends in VAT rates in the UK, 2007-11
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Pubs and bars account for £3 in every £10 spent on leisure
Figure 36: Trends in value of key sectors of the leisure* market, 2006-11
Figure 37: Leisure spending trends in past 12 months, by sector, October 2011
Figure 38: Leisure spending intentions for the next 12 months, October 2011
Food-led venues now most prevalent places for drinking alcohol
Figure 39: Places visited for an alcoholic drink in the last 6 months, May 2011
Wine sales power ahead but beer and cider still largest drinks sector
Figure 40: Alcoholic drinks trends, at current prices, 2005-10
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Tech has a bigger role to play
Special events give reasons to visit pubs
New concepts keep coming
Irish pub revival?
Original thinking
Treehouses closer to ground
Beer and Italian go together
Help yourself
Pop-up Pubs
Bachelor pad
Local goes Locavore
Multi-branded pubs
Other developments
Branching out
No more beer goggles
Honey I shrunk the pint
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Pub revenues contract by one third in six years
Figure 41: UK pub industry market size and forecast, 2006-16
Forecast
Figure 42: Forecast for UK pubs industry revenues, 2006-16
Figure 43: Forecast for UK pub industry volume (number of outlets), 2006-16
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Food and soft drinks increase their contribution to the pub sales mix
Figure 44: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2009-11
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Mitchells & Butlers leads although pubcos have higher total sales
Figure 45: Leading pub operators in the UK, by turnover, 2010/11
Figure 46: Leading pub operators in the UK, by outlet numbers, April 2012
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Key points
Industry structure
Figure 47: Trends in the number of pub outlets, 2006-11
Mitchells & Butlers
Figure 48: Key financial data for Mitchells & Butlers plc, 2007-11
JD Wetherspoon plc
Figure 49: Key financial data for JD Wetherspoon plc, 2007-11
Spirit Pub Company
Figure 50: Key financial data for Spirit Pub Company, 2010-11
Figure 51: Spirit Pub Company brands and their food sales, 2011
Greene King plc
Figure 52: Key financial data for Greene King plc, 2007-11
Figure 53: Revenue by segment for Greene King plc, 2010-11
Marston’s plc
Figure 54: Key financial data for Marston’s plc, 2007-11
Figure 55: Revenue by segment for Marston’s plc, 2010-11
Whitbread plc
Figure 56: Whitbread plc, pub outlet numbers in the UK, February 2012
Figure 57: Financial performance of Whitbread plc, 2007-11
Enterprise Inns
Figure 58: Key financial data for Enterprise Inns plc. 2007-11
Punch Taverns
Figure 59: Key financial data for Punch Taverns plc, 2010-11
Scottish & Newcastle Pub Company
Figure 60: Key financial data for Scottish & Newcastle Pub Company (Management) limited, 2007-10
Admiral Taverns
Figure 61: Key financial data for Admiral Taverns Group Holdings limited, 2010-11
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Traditional advertising not a major part of the promotional mix
Figure 62: Expenditure on advertising by selected brewers and pubcos, 2007-11
Figure 63: Expenditure on advertising by selected brewers and pubcos, by channel, 2011
Independents lead the way with innovative promotions
Don’t worry, be appi
Mutt’s nuts
Food for footfall
Spirited gift
PUB VISITING FREQUENCY
Key points
Three quarters of adults visit pubs
Figure 64: Pub visiting frequency, February 2012
FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF PUB
Key points
A smile costs nothing but gives much
Figure 65: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Location, location
Creature comforts
Talk of the town
Cost and cleanliness
Entertainment and keeping it real
Sport and entertainment bigger draws for most frequent pub-goers
Figure 66: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by most popular pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
Figure 67: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by next most popular pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
Real/cask ale and traditional pub atmosphere go together
Figure 68: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 69: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 70: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
PUB VISITING BEHAVIOUR
Key points
Pub-going habits are hard to break
Figure 71: Pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
Heaviest pub drinkers are most habitual
Figure 72: Pub visiting behaviour, by most frequent pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
Figure 73: Pub visiting behaviour, by next most frequent pub visiting frequency (for a drink), February 2012
Sport, entertainment and friends go well together
Figure 74: Pub visiting behaviour, by most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 75: Pub visiting behaviour, by next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 76: Pub visiting behaviour, by other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
People who visit pubs mostly to drink tend to stick to the same pub/pubs
Figure 77: Pub visiting behaviour, by most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
Figure 78: Pub visiting behaviour, by next most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
ATTITUDES TOWARDS PUBS
Key points
The local pub is still a focus for the community it serves
Figure 79: Attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
Frequent visitors would like more drinks choices
Figure 80: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular pub visiting frequency, February 2012
Figure 81: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular pub visiting frequency, February 2012
PUB TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Figure 82: Pub target groups, February 2012
Fans
Puritans
Home-birds
Disengaged
Almost nine in ten Fans visit pubs for a drink
Figure 83: Pub visiting frequency, by pub visiting target groups, February 2012
Home-birds influenced by most factors
Figure 84: Factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by pub visiting target groups, February 2012
Home-birds oriented around family visits
Figure 85: Pub visiting behaviour, by pub visiting target groups, February 2012
APPENDIX – INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 86: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink or for a meal, at least once a week, 2007-11
Figure 87: Trends in all prices versus those of alcoholic drinks, by channel, 2006-11
Figure 88: Trends in all prices versus those of food and catering, 2006-11
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 89: Forecast for UK pubs industry revenues, 2011-16
Figure 90: Forecast for UK pub industry volume (number of outlets), 2011-16
APPENDIX – PUB VISITING FREQUENCY
Figure 91: Pub visiting frequency (any visit), by demographics, February 2012
Figure 92: Most popular pub visiting frequency (for a drink), by demographics, February 2012
Figure 93: Next most popular pub visiting frequency, by demographics, February 2012
APPENDIX – FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF PUB
Figure 94: Most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 95: Next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 96: Other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, by demographics, February 2012
APPENDIX – PUB VISITING BEHAVIOUR
Figure 97: Most popular pub visiting behaviour, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 98: Next most popular pub visiting behaviour, by demographics, February 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS PUBS
Figure 99: Most popular attitudes towards pubs, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 100: Next most popular attitudes towards pubs, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 101: Other attitudes towards pubs, by demographics, February 2012
Figure 102: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 103: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 104: Attitudes towards pubs, by other factors influencing decision about which pub to visit, February 2012
Figure 105: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
Figure 106: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular pub visiting behaviour, February 2012
Figure 107: Attitudes towards pubs, by most popular attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
Figure 108: Attitudes towards pubs, by next most popular attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
Figure 109: Attitudes towards pubs, by other attitudes towards pubs, February 2012
APPENDIX – PUB TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 110: Pub visiting target groups, by demographics, February 2012

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