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Meat-free and Free-from Foods - UK - September 2011

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Excluded
Definition of food allergy vs food intolerance
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Growth of 28% since 2006 set to see the market reach £868 million in 2011
Figure 1: Estimated UK retail sales of meat-free* and free-from** foods, by value, 2006-11
Forecast
Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free* and free-from foods**, by value, 2006-16
Market factors
Increased awareness of food intolerance and self-diagnosis are driving the market
Cashing in or creating choice?
Austerity measures threaten the variety and quantity of foods allocated on prescription
New legislation on gluten-free labelling
Companies, brands and innovation
Quorn struggles through 2010 but 2011 marks a new beginning
Figure 3: Manufacturers’ shares in meat-free foods, 2010
Own-label free-from ranges expand dramatically during 2010/11
Figure 4: Estimated value of UK brands in the free-from foods sector, 2010
Innovation and new products from new and established brands are driving growth
Figure 5: New product launches in the meat substitute sector, by top five product claims excluding vegetarian, 2007-11
The consumer
Meat-free food has clear selling points despite some negative taste perceptions
Figure 6: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, July 2011
Understanding the wider context of dietary restrictions
Figure 7: Food sensitivity and dietary limitations in households, July 2011
Figure 8: Types of food/ingredients avoided, July 2011
Loyalty for specialist brands is challenged by newcomers
Figure 9: Attitudes towards specialist dietary food, July 2011
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How can companies overcome negative consumer perceptions about meat-free food?
How can meat-free brands capitalise on the weaknesses of the meat market?
What areas hold development potential for free-from foods?
What factors can manufacturers leverage to attract new users to the free-from market?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: Fauxthenticity
Trend: Sense of the Intense
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Identifying the target market
Vegetarianism
Food allergy
Food intolerance
Health cutbacks will disadvantage coeliac sufferers but benefit retail sales
Growing support for food intolerance in foodservice
Growth in vegetarian eating out options
New legislation to guide suppliers and caterers of gluten-free food
The healthy ‘lifestyle choice’
Free-from has an opportunity to compete on a mainstream level
Figure 10: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by gender and age, November 2010
Figure 11: Attitudes towards buying a free-from pizza, by age, May 2010
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Few shoppers are resilient to the prolonged downturn in the economy
Figure 12: Mintel tracker survey extracts: agreement with statements on grocery shopping, August 2010-July 2011
Figure 13: Impact of the economic downturn on consumers, by presence of children, July 2011
Attitudes towards the environment
Figure 14: Attitudes towards environmental issues, 2010
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Challenges facing red meat create opportunities for meat substitutes
Meat in moderation
Figure 15: Overall usage (eat) of red meat at home, by type of meat, by selected demographics, % point difference from average, July 2010
Health warnings do not detract from the enjoyment factor
Meat prices driving households to cut back and switch
Figure 16: Retail price of beef, lamb and pork, January 2010-May 2011
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Definition
New product trends in meat substitutes
Figure 17: New product launches in the meat substitute sector, by top five product claims excluding vegetarian, 2007-11
Figure 18: New product launches in the UK meat substitutes market, by storage, 2007-11
Figure 19: Share of meat-free launches in the UK ready meals market, 2006-11
Oat cuisine
New product trends in gluten-free
Figure 20: Share of free-from products in all new food product launches, 2008-11
Figure 21: Trends in gluten-free new product launches, by top ten categories, 2007-11
Trends in lactose-free foods
Figure 22: Trends in lactose-free new product launches, by top ten categories, 2007-11
MARKET VALUE AND FORECAST
Key points
Meat-free and free-from foods – a market at its peak or poised for growth?
Figure 23: Estimated UK retail sales of meat-free* and free-from foods**, by value, 2006-11
Figure 24: Estimated UK retail sales of meat-free, and free-from foods, by type, by value, 2009-11
Meat-free market dynamics
Fresh growth potential for the free-from foods market
Mainstream customers attract mainstream competitors
Ongoing debate over the optimum in-store merchandising of free-from products
Dairy alternatives innovate to capitalise on growing demand
Forecast
Figure 25: Forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free* and free-from foods**, by value, 2006-16
Figure 26: Forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free* and free-from foods**, by value, 2006-16
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Free-from foods outperform meat-free
Figure 27: UK retail sales of meat-free and free-from foods, by segment, indexed, 2006-11
Meat-free
Figure 28: UK retail sales of meat-free foods, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Figure 29: UK retail value sales of meat-free foods, by type, MAT to July 2010 and 2011
Figure 30: UK retail value sales of meat-free foods, by segment, year-on-year change, MAT July 2010-11
Free-from
Figure 31: Estimated UK retail sales of free-from foods, by value, by type, 2009-11
Figure 32: Estimated UK retail sales* of free-from foods, by value, 2006-11
Demand for freshness is driving growth in gluten-free bakery
Dairy-free milk moves into fresh
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Meat-free
Figure 33: Manufacturers’ shares in meat-free foods sector, 2009 and 2010
Quorn narrows its target to dieters
Meat-free welcomes newcomers to frozen
Garden Gourmet from Tivall
Amy’s Kitchen
Competition heats up in gluten-free
Figure 34: Estimated value of leading UK brands in the free-from foods sector, 2009 and 2010
Alpro puts ambitious growth plans into action
Fresh impetus from new bread brands
Warburtons and others launch gluten-free breads
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Manufacturers and brands
Figure 35: Selected leading companies in the meat-free and free-from market in the UK and their brands, 2011
Dean Foods
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
Dr Schär UK
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
Exponent Private Equity
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
Goodlife Foods
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
Hain Celestial
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
Irish Food Processors
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
Kallo Foods
Company background
Recent activity
Product range and innovation
Marketing and promotion
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Meat-free adspend shows a solid recovery in 2011
Figure 36: Adspend in the UK meat-free and free-from foods market, 2007-11
Figure 37: Adspend in the UK meat-free and free-from foods market, 2007-11
Figure 38: Key brands’ adspend in the UK meat-free and free-from foods market, by % of total category spend, 2008-11
Emphasis on attracting new users to the market
Figure 39: Recent ad campaigns in the UK meat-free and free-from foods markets, June 2010-June 2011
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key point
Grocery multiples stamp their authority on the meat-free sector
Figure 40: Retail distribution of meat-free foods, by outlet type, 2007-11
Independents can also capitalise on buoyant demand for free-from
Figure 41: Retail channels of distribution for free-from foods sector*, 2007-11
Specialists must exploit their strengths
New channel opportunities for those squeezed out by own-label
THE CONSUMER – MEAT AVOIDANCE
Key points
Identifying the target market
Understanding meat avoiders
Figure 42: Consumption of meat, poultry and fish, July 2011
Figure 43: Repertoire of eating different types of meat, poultry and fish at home*, July 2011
Figure 44: Attitudes towards limiting the consumption of meat, poultry and fish, July 2011
CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS MEAT-FREE FOOD AND MEAT SUBSTITUTES
Key points
Quest for variety and excitement are key reasons to consider meat-free
Figure 45: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, July 2011
Embrace positive reasons to eat less meat
Lower fat content attracts families
Convenience options cater for the less adventurous
Men feel the most strongly about bland and boring meat-free foods
Figure 46: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, difference from population average, by gender, July 2011
Figure 47: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, difference from population average, 16-24-year-olds -v- 25-34-year-olds, July 2011
THE CONSUMER – HOW HOUSEHOLDS RESPOND TO FOOD SENSITIVITY
Key points
Two in five adults live in households affected by specialist diets
Figure 48: Consumer reaction towards food sensitivity and specialist diets, July 2011
Figure 49: Food sensitivity affecting the respondent, by gender, July 2011
Red meat is the food most commonly avoided
Figure 50: Types of food/ingredients avoided, July 2011
Figure 51: Repertoire of types of food/ingredients avoided, July 2011
THE CONSUMER – CATERING FOR A SPECIALIST DIET
Key points
Convenience plays a part in targeting the whole family
Figure 52: Attitudes towards specialist dietary food, July 2011
A lifestyle choice
Impact of the recession – cutbacks
Limited receptiveness towards new large-scale players in the market
Figure 53: Attitudes towards specialist dietary brands, July 2011
CONSUMER TARGET GROUPS
Key points
Four target groups
Figure 54: Target groups based on attitudes towards meat-free foods, July 2011
Meat-Free Enthusiasts (37%)
Open to Persuasion (OPPs) (23%)
Disinterested (17%)
Turned-off by Tofu (TOTs) (23%)
APPENDIX – INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 55: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on food and dietary habits, 2006-10
Figure 56: Trends in agreement with attitudes on eating habits, 2006-10
Figure 57: Agreement with attitudes on eating habits, by demographics, 2010
APPENDIX – COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Figure 58: Retail Price Index of red meat and competing food items, 2005-09
APPENDIX – WHO’S INNOVATING?
Figure 59: New product developments in the UK meat substitutes market, by claims, 2008-11
Figure 60: New product developments in the UK meat substitutes market, by launch type, 2008-11
Figure 61: New product developments in the UK meat substitutes market, by private label, 2008-11
Figure 62: New product developments in the UK market, by free-from claims, 2008-11
APPENDIX – MARKET VALUE AND FORECAST
Figure 63: Best and worst case Forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free*, and free-from foods**, by value, 2011-16
Figure 64: UK retail sales of free-from foods*, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Figure 65: UK retail sales of free-from foods*, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Figure 66: UK retail sales of free-from foods*, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2006-11
Figure 67: Forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free* foods, by value, 2006-16
Figure 68: Forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free* foods, by value, 2006-16
Figure 69: Best and worst case forecast of UK retail sales of meat-free* foods, by value, 2011-16
APPENDIX – MARKET SEGMENTATION
Figure 70: UK retail value sales of meat-free foods*, MAT to July 2010 and 2011
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATIONS
Figure 71: Above-the-line expenditure in the UK free-from foods market, by company, 2008-11
Figure 72: Adspend in the UK meat-free foods market, by company, 2008-11
Figure 73: Adspend in the UK free-from foods market, by brand, 2008-11
Figure 74: Adspend in the UK meat-free foods market, by top ten brands, 2008-11
APPENDIX – MEAT AVOIDANCE
Figure 75: UK households, by size, 2006-16
Figure 76: Frequency of eating red meat, poultry and fish at home, July 2011
Figure 77: Attitudes towards consumption of meat, by demographics, July 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS MEAT AVOIDANCE
Figure 78: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, July 2011
Figure 79: Eating red meat, poultry and fish at home, by repertoire of eating red meat, poultry and fish at home, July 2011
Figure 80: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, by repertoire of eating red meat, poultry and fish at home, July 2011
Figure 81: Agreement with the statements ‘I sometimes eat meat-free foods for variety in my diet’ and ‘I sometimes choose meat-free food if it looks tasty/exciting’, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 82: Agreement with the statements ‘I sometimes choose meat-free food if I want a lighter meal’ and ‘I use meat substitutes because they are lower in fat than eg meat’, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 83: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer traditional meat-free foods/dishes to meat-style substitutes’ and ‘I'm put off by substitutes imitating meat because they are artificial’, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 84: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see more meat-free options in convenience foods’ and ‘Vegetarian/meat-free foods at supermarkets are often bland/boring’, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 85: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like more meat-free convenience foods using eg vegetables instead of meat substitutes’ and ‘I would like to cut back on meat’, by demographics, July 2011
APPENDIX – FOOD SENSITIVITY IN HOUSEHOLDS
Figure 86: Personal reaction towards food sensitivity and specialist diets, by demographics, July 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS CATERING FOR A SPECIALIST DIET
Figure 87: Attitudes towards specialist dietary food, July 2011
Figure 88: Agreement with the statements ‘I trust specialist brands more than supermarket own-label for such foods’ and ‘I trust specialist brands more than mainstream brands for such foods’, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 89: Agreement with the statements ‘I have cut back on my use of such foods during the recession’ and ‘Many family members sometimes eat such foods because one member follows a special diet’, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 90: Agreement with the statement ‘I follow a special diet as part of a healthy lifestyle’, by demographics, July 2011
APPENDIX – CONSUMER TARGET GROUPS
Figure 91: Target groups, by demographics, July 2011
Figure 92: Consumption of red meat, poultry and fish at home, by target groups, July 2011
Figure 93: Personal reaction towards food sensitivity and specialist diets, by target groups, July 2011
Figure 94: Household member reaction towards food sensitivity and specialist diets, by target groups, July 2011
Figure 95: Attitudes towards meat-free food and meat substitutes, by target groups, July 2011

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