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Casual Dining - US - October 2010

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Casual dining: the poster child for recessionary restaurant woes
Turning the profitability tide
Results within the category not segment driven
Promotions highlight menu features and special pricing
The (mostly) diverse and (often) varied casual dining menu
Applebee’s and Olive Garden top consumer picks
Cutting back and opting out
Why casual dining?
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Differentiation is essential
Achieving “portfolio profit”
Attracting customers at off-hours
Snacks and mini-meals
Happy hour
The demand for specialty menus
Nutritional knowledge is power
Social networking: the new CSR rep
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: Experience Is All
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Moderate growth ahead after painful recession
Casual dining sales and forecast
Figure 1: U.S. sales at casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: U.S. sales at casual dining restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
MARKET DRIVERS
Casual dining: the poster child for recessionary restaurant woes
Figure 3: NRA Performance Indices, January 2009-August 2010
Figure 4: Adjusted Foodservice and Drinking Place Sales, January 2008-August 2010
Unemployment and underemployment discourage spending out
Figure 5: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-September 2010
Real disposable personal income
Figure 6: U.S. disposable personal income growth, January 2007-August 2010
Consumer confidence
Figure 7: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007- September 2010
Demographics
Figure 8: Population by age, 2005-15
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Casual dining customers trading down
Figure 9: Attitudes toward fast casual compared to casual dining, by age and gender, April 2010
SEGMENT PERFORMANCES
Contemporary American and Seafood Segments
Unit growth unbalanced against fixed sales results
Figure 10: Systemwide restaurant sales of leading contemporary American and seafood casual dining chains, 2007 and 2009
Italian and Ethnic Segment
Olive Garden: the segment powerhouse
Figure 11: Systemwide restaurant sales of leading Italian and ethnic casual dining chains, 2007 and 2009
Steakhouse Segment
Outback leads segment, and market, for sales declines
Figure 12: Systemwide restaurant sales of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2007 and 2009
COMPANY PROFILE: CHILI’S
Company performance
Figure 13: Chili’s systemwide sales and units, 2007 and 2009
Core Customers
Figure 14: Chili’s top demographics, February 2009-March 2010
On the menu
Figure 15: Makeup of Chili’s menu, Q3 2010
Figure 16: Chili’s, top five cuisine types, Q4 2009-Q3 2010
New menu additions
Salad
Better Than Ever Big Mouth Burgers
Tacos Wrapped in Flavor
Chicken
Sandwiches
COMPANY PROFILE: APPLEBEE’S
Company performance
Figure 17: Applebee’s systemwide sales and units, 2007 and 2009
Core Customers
Figure 18: Applebee’s top demographics February 2009-March 2010
On the menu
Figure 19: Makeup of Applebee’s menu, Q3 2010
Figure 20: Applebee’s top five cuisine types, Q3 2009-Q2 2010
New menu additions
Salads
Sandwiches
2 For $20
Signature Steaks
Ribs and Fajitas
Burgers
Sizzling Entrées
COMPANY PROFILE: OUTBACK STEAKHOUSE
Company performance
Figure 21: Outback systemwide sales and units, 2007 and 2009
Core Customers
Figure 22: Outback Steakhouse top demographics February 2009-March 2010
On the menu
Figure 23: Makeup of Outback MENU, Q3 2010
Figure 24: Outback Steakhouse, top five cuisine types, Q4 2009-Q3 2010
New menu additions
Signature Cocktails
Import Beers
Premium Spirits
COMPANY PROFILE: OLIVE GARDEN
Company performance
Figure 25: Olive Garden sales and units, 2007 and 2009
Core Customers
Figure 26: Olive Garden top demographics February 2009-March 2010
On the menu
Figure 27: Makeup of Olive Garden dinner menu, Q3 2010
Figure 28: Olive Garden Steakhouse, top five cuisine types, Q4 2009-Q3 2010
New menu additions
Pasta Ripiena
Pesce
Parmesan-Polenta Crusted Entrées
Carne (Beef and Pork)
Passion for Italian Cuisine
Dolce
Signature House Wines
Birra – Domestic
COMPANY PROFILE: RED LOBSTER
Company performance
Figure 29: Red Lobster sales and units, 2007 and 2009
Core Customers
Figure 30: Red Lobster top demographics February 2009-March 2010
On the menu
Figure 31: Makeup of Red Lobster menu, Q3 2010
Figure 32: Red Lobster top five cuisine types, Q4 2009-Q3 2010
New menu additions
Signature Combinations
Celebrate Crabfest
COMPANY PROFILE: P.F. CHANG’S
Company performance
Figure 33: P.F. Chang’s sales and units, 2007 and 2009
Figure 34: P.F. Chang’s top demographics February 2009-March 2010
On the menu
Figure 35: Makeup of P.F. Chang’s menu, Q3 2010
Figure 36: P.F. Chang’s top five cuisine types, Q4 2009-Q3 2010
New menu additions
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview
Widespread promotion of discounted meals
Figure 37: Chili’s (Chili’s Grill & Bar) television ad, 2010
Figure 38: O’Charley’s television ad, 2010
Darden Restaurants: Drawing in workers for lunch
Figure 39: Olive Garden television ad, 2010
Figure 40: Olivegarden.com monthly visitors, March 2010-September 2010
Figure 41: Red Lobster television ad, 2010
Olive Garden: Targeting the family dining dollar
Figure 42: Olive Garden television ad, 2010
Applebee’s and Chili’s: Emailing promotions
Applebee’s
Figure 43: Applebee’s 2 for $20 e-mail, September 2010
Ruby Tuesday
Figure 44: Ruby Tuesday “Fresh” e-mail, August 2010
Chili’s: A social networking case study
Figure 45: Chilis.com monthly visits, April 2010-September 2010
Red Robin: making the case for integrated campaigns
Figure 46: Red Robin television ad, 2010
Figure 47: Redrobin.com monthly visitors, February 2010-July 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: THE CASUAL DINING MENU
Overview
Menu items
Figure 48: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Figure 49: Top 10 Casual Dining menu items, by incidence and price, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Menu ingredients
Figure 50: Top 10 casual dining menu ingredients, by incidence, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: MARKETING THE CASUAL DINING MENU
Figure 51: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Figure 52: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on casual dining menus, by price, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: THE BEVERAGE MENU
Overview
Alcoholic beverages
Figure 53: Top 10 alcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Figure 54: Top 10 alcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence and price, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Non-alcoholic beverages
Figure 55: Top five non-alcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Figure 56: Top five non-alcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence and price, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: THE KIDS’ MENU
Figure 57: Top 10 kids’ menu items at casual dining menus, by incidence, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
Figure 58: Top 10 kids’ menu items at casual dining menus, by incidence and price, Q2 2007-Q2 2010
CASUAL DINING RESTAURANT USAGE AND USAGE FREQUENCY
Chains look to attract workers for lunchtime meal
Figure 59: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, July 2010
Figure 60: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by age, July 2010
Figure 61: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by household income, July 2010
Olive Garden moves into top spot for dinner
Figure 62: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, July 2010
Figure 63: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by age, July 2010
Figure 64: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by household income, July 2010
Adapting the menu to the size of the party
Figure 65: Casual dining check average and party size, July 2010
Figure 66: Casual dining check average and party size, by age, July 2010
Figure 67: Casual dining check average and party size, by household income, July 2010
CHANGES IN CASUAL DINING USAGE
Recession continues to impact diners
Figure 68: Change in casual dining usage, July 2010
Figure 69: Change in casual dining usage, by gender, July 2010
Figure 70: Change in casual dining usage, by age, July 2010
Figure 71: Change in casual dining usage, by household income, July 2010
Figure 72: Reason for reduced casual dining usage, July 2010
Figure 73: Reason for reduced casual dining usage, by gender, July 2010
CASUAL DINING SELECTION FACTORS
The menu reigns supreme
Figure 74: Important attributes for selecting a casual dining restaurant, July 2010
Figure 75: Important attributes for selecting a casual dining restaurant, by gender, July 2010
Figure 76: Important attributes for selecting a casual dining restaurant, by age, July 2010
Performance on par with what patrons cite as important
Figure 77: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, July 2010
Figure 78: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by gender, July 2010
Figure 79: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by age, July 2010
Figure 80: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by household income, July 2010
WHAT CONSUMERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF
The healthy food dichotomy
Figure 81: Improvements for casual dining, July 2010
Figure 82: Improvements for casual dining, by gender, July 2010
Figure 83: Improvements for casual dining, by household income, July 2010
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CASUAL DINING EXPERIENCE
The full-service experience a valuable trump card
Figure 84: Attitudes towards casual dining experience, July 2010
Figure 85: Attitudes towards casual dining experience, by gender, July 2010
Figure 86: Attitudes towards casual dining experience, by age, July 2010
Figure 87: Attitudes towards casual dining experience, by household income, July 2010
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CASUAL DINING MENU
Patrons appreciate interesting and unique menu offerings
Figure 88: Attitudes towards casual dining menu, July 2010
Figure 89: Attitudes towards casual dining menu, by age, July 2010
Figure 90: Attitudes towards casual dining menu, by household income, July 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Advocates
Demographics and characteristics
Opportunity
Indulgers
Demographics and characteristics
Opportunity
Lumpers
Demographics and characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 91: Casual dining clusters, July 2010
Figure 92: Important attributes at casual dining restaurants, by casual dining clusters, July 2010
Figure 93: Improvements for casual dining, by casual dining clusters, July 2010
Figure 94: Attitudes towards casual dining, by casual dining clusters, July 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 95: Casual dining clusters, by gender, July 2010
Figure 96: Casual dining clusters, by age group, July 2010
Figure 97: Casual dining clusters, by household income, July 2010
Figure 98: Casual dining clusters, by race, July 2010
Figure 99: Casual dining clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2010
Cluster methodology
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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