Oral Care - US - June 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Slow growth due to high household penetration of oral care products
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of oral care, at current prices, 2011-21
Whitening kits face challenges
Figure 2: Select attitudes toward teeth whitening, March 2016
Older consumers least likely to use oral care, but more likely to suffer oral care issues
Figure 3: Select oral care product usage, any use, by generations, March 2016
The opportunities
Hispanics’ lack of dental coverage, expanding population, spell opportunity
Figure 4: Select oral care product usage, currently use, by Hispanic origin, March 2016
Households with children are engaged in the category
Figure 42: Children's oral care, March 2016
Personalizing oral care
Figure 6: Oral-B brand perceptions, March 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Slow growth due to market saturation
Toothpaste accounts for highest category share
Demographics figure strongly into product usage
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Slow growth projected
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of oral care, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of oral care, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Toothpaste leads among segments
Figure 9: Total US retail sales of oral care, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 10: Share of oral care sales, by segment, at current prices, 2016
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Professional whitening services slow OTC whitening product sales
MARKET FACTORS
High household penetration results in slow growth
Figure 11: Usage of oral care products, 2009-15
Product usage influenced by demographic factors
Hispanics are heavy users; seeing above-average population growth
Figure 12: Select oral care product usage, currently use, by Hispanic origin, March 2016
Figure 13: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
Households with children are above-average oral care users
Figure 14: Oral care product usage, currently use, by presence of children, March 2016
Figure 15: Households, by presence of own children, 2013
Older consumers
Figure 16: Oral care product usage, currently use, by age, March 2016
Figure 17: Population, by age, 2011-21
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Small group of leading companies
Brand growth from technology products and old standbys
Whitening products suffer from negative consumer perceptions
Standby brands suffer from competition, cannibalization
Technological innovations, two-step systems, whitening, and sensitivity
MANUFACTURER SALES OF ORAL CARE
Four major players account for majority of MULO sales
Manufacturer sales of oral care
Figure 18: MULO sales of oral care, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Oral-B banks on toothbrush technology
Figure 19: Oral-B power toothbrush TV ad, 2016
Figure 20: MULO sales of Oral-B toothbrushes, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Tom’s of Maine toothpaste leverages natural positioning
Figure 21: MULO sales of Tom’s of Maine toothpaste, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Sensodyne’s unique positioning drives growth
Figure 22: MULO sales of Sensodyne toothpaste, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Listerine grows mouthwash and floss/accessory sales
Figure 23: Listerine TV ad, 2016
Figure 24: MULO sales of Listerine mouthwash, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Teeth whitening product sales continue to decline
Figure 25: Select attitudes toward teeth whitening, March 2016
Arm & Hammer toothbrushes struggling
Figure 26: MULO sales of Arm & Hammer toothbrushes, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S NEXT?
Technological innovation personalizes oral care
Figure 27: Oral-B 7000 YouTube video, 2016
Crest two-step systems address deep cleaning and polishing
Sensodyne True White targets whitening alongside tooth sensitivity
Figure 28: Sensodyne True White toothpaste TV ad, 2016
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Near penetration for everyday products, less so for support products
Opportunity for multipurpose products
Whitening kits mostly perceived negatively
Consumers divided over natural products
High use and interest in children’s oral care products
Perceptions similar across leading oral care brands
ORAL CARE PRODUCT USAGE
Opportunity for expanded oral care repertoire
Figure 29: Oral care product usage, March 2016
Oral care use declines with age
Figure 30: Select oral care product usage, any use, by generations, March 2016
Household income impacts usage
Figure 31: Oral care product usage, any use, by household income, March 2016
IMPORTANT PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES
Plaque removal, cavity prevention, breath freshening most important
Figure 32: Important product claims, March 2016
Cosmetic benefits most important to younger generations
Figure 33: Important product claims, by generations, March 2016
Hispanics less apt to look for health attributes
Figure 34: Important product claims, by Hispanic origin, March 2016
Plaque removal and breath freshening are point-of-entry claims
Figure 35: TURF analysis – Product claims, March 2016
Figure 36: Table - TURF analysis – Product claims, March
Methodology
ATTITUDES TOWARD TEETH WHITENING
Whitening kits considered costly, but white teeth generate confidence
Figure 37: Attitudes toward teeth whitening, March 2016
Older Millennials least concerned about negative effects
Figure 38: Attitudes toward teeth whitening, by Millennials, March 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARD NATURAL ORAL CARE PRODUCTS
Cost aversion and skepticism toward natural products
Figure 39: Attitudes toward natural products, March 2016
Millennials divided on natural products
Figure 40: Select attitudes toward natural products, by Millennials, March 2016
Hispanics also divided over natural products
Figure 41: Select attitudes toward natural products, by Hispanic origin, March 2016
CHILDREN’S ORAL CARE
High use of child-specific products among family households
Figure 42: Children's oral care, March 2016
Products that make child oral care easier will appeal to Hispanics
Figure 43: Select attitudes toward children's oral care, by Hispanic origin, March 2016
BRAND PERCEPTIONS
Little differentiation across leading oral care brands
Figure 44: Correspondence analysis – Brand perceptions, March 2016
Methodology
Figure 45: Brand perceptions, March 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Market size
Figure 46: Total US sales and forecast of oral care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market segments
Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of toothbrushes, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 48: Total US sales and forecast of toothpaste, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 49: Total US sales and forecast of mouthwash, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 50: Total US sales and forecast of floss and accessories/tools, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 51: Total US sales and forecast of teeth whiteners, at current prices, 2011-21
Retail channels
Figure 52: Total US retail sales of oral care products, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 53: Total US retail sales of oral care products, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 54: MULO sales of toothbrushes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 55: MULO sales of toothpaste, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 56: MULO sales of mouthwash/rinse, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 57: MULO sales of floss/accessories, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 58: MULO sales of bleaching/whitening kits, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 59: Top 20 selling gum health toothpastes, 52-weeks ending Feb. 21, 2016
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 60: Kinds of toothpaste used, October 2014-December 2015
Figure 61: Use of power toothbrushes, October 2014-December 2015
Figure 62: Type of power toothbrush used, October 2014-December 2015
Figure 63: Dentist visits, October 2014-December 2015
Figure 64: Oral care expenditures, October 2014-December 2015