Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- White milk continues to set the tone for the wider market
- White milk set for further volume decline
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of white milk, flavoured milk, and cream, 2013-23
- Cream volumes continue to fall in 2018
- Standard cow’s milk sees its majority share fall
- 2018 drought puts upward pressure on prices
- Sugar reductions asked of milk-based drinks
- Companies and brands
- Own-label maintains its dominance in white milk
- Cravendale in the lead, Alpro enjoys rapid growth
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales of white milk^, by leading brands, by value, 2018/2019*
- Own-label increases its lead in value sales of cream
- Strong performances across flavoured milk
- Ethical claims rise in 2018
- Plant-based continues to be an active sector, Innocent a high-profile newcomer
- Above-the-line spending slows in 2018
- The consumer
- 96% of UK adults continue to use milk
- Usage of plant-based products and flavoured milk has increased
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- Figure 3: Usage of milk, by type, February 2019
- 40% of users would pay above £1.20 for a four-pint bottle of milk
- Hot drinks remain the top occasions within white milk
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- Figure 4: Usage occasions for cow’s and plant-based milk, by type, February 2019
- Environmental and ethical initiatives spark consumer interest
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- Figure 5: Interest in new product concepts in milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2019
- Plant-based milk alternatives can boost uptake by educating consumers on usage
- Less-sweet flavour profiles can address concerns over sugar in flavoured milk
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- Figure 6: Behaviours relating to milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2019
- Youngest consumers are least positive about cow’s milk’s importance
- Doorstep milk enjoys an unlikely resurgence helped by plastic backlash
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- A third of users are interested in recycled plastic packaging
- The facts
- The implications
- Plant-based milk alternatives can benefit from further educating consumers about uses
- The facts
- The implications
- Flavoured cream offers summer potential
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- White milk continues to set the tone of the wider market
- White milk set for further volume decline
- Cream volumes continue to fall in 2018
- Standard cow’s milk sees majority share decrease
- 2018 drought puts upward pressure on prices
- Sugar reduction target for milk-based drinks
Market Size and Forecast
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- White milk continues to set the tone of the category in 2018
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- Figure 8: UK retail value sales of white milk, flavoured milk, and cream, by major segment, 2013-23
- Figure 9: UK retail volume sales of white milk, flavoured milk, and cream, by major segment, 2013-23
- Price inflation and volume loss in white milk set to see market struggle
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- Figure 10: UK retail value sales of white milk, flavoured milk, and cream, 2013-23
- White milk’s struggles continue in 2018
- Further volume decline forecast for white milk
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of white milk, 2013-23
- Cream volumes fall again in 2018, with further decline predicted
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- Figure 12: UK retail value sales of cream, 2013-23
- Price inflation fuels much of flavoured milk sales
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of flavoured milk, 2013-23
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- White milk’s volume decline accelerates
- Cow’s milk faces pressure from health and sustainability concerns
- Rising prices prop up value growth
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- Figure 14: Retail value sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2016-18
- Figure 15: Retail volume sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2016-18
- Conventional cow’s milk holds a shrinking majority share
- Newer plant-based products continue strong growth
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- Figure 16: Retail value sales of white milk, by type, 2016-18
- Figure 17: Retail volume sales of white milk, by type, 2016-18
- Cream volume sales continue to fall
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- Figure 18: Retail value sales of cream, by type, 2016-18
- Figure 19: Retail volume sales of cream, by type, 2016-18
- Flavoured milk finds continued success
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- Figure 20: Retail value sales of flavoured milk, milk smoothies, and milk modifiers, 2016-18
- Figure 21: Retail volume sales of flavoured milk, milk smoothies, and milk modifiers, 2016-18
Market Drivers
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- Milk prices fell in the spring and rebounded in the second half of 2018
- The drought of summer 2018 saw price inflation in many areas
- Plant-based milk alternatives and flavoured milk are most affected by Pound’s fluctuations
- Brexit uncertainty lingers
- Dairy drinks are included in PHE’s efforts to reduce sugar consumption
- A fifth of users limit cow’s milk for health
- A fifth of people voice environmental concerns
- Milk-based drinks are tasked with sugar reduction
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Own-label continues its dominance in white milk
- Cravendale in the lead, Alpro enjoys rapid growth
- Own-label increases its lead in value sales of cream
- Strong performances across flavoured milk
- Ethical claims rise in 2018
- Plant-based milk alternatives remains an active sector, Innocent a high-profile newcomer
- Above-the-line spending slows in 2018
Market Share
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- Own-label continues its dominance in white milk
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- Figure 22: UK retail sales of white milk^, by leading brands, 2016-18
- Figure 23: UK retail sales of white milk^, by leading brand owners, 2016-18
- Arla’s added value offerings enjoy rapid growth in 2018
- Alpro hits 100 million litres in white milk
- Own-label increases its lead in value sales of cream
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- Figure 24: UK retail sales of cream, by leading brands, 2016-18
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- Figure 25: UK retail sales of cream, by leading brand owners, 2016-18
- Own-label plays a minority role in flavoured milk
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- Figure 26: UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by leading brands, 2016-18
- Figure 27: UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by leading brand owners, 2016-18
- Yazoo retains its position as market leader
- Frijj returns to growth in 2018
- 2018 heatwave helps Starbucks
Start-ups and Disruptors Case Study – Neqta
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- Company overview
- What is it?
- Founded:
- Company mission statement:
- Founder’s story:
- Mintel analyst view
- Mintel Trends
- Why it could succeed
- Why it could fail
- The verdict
- Product information
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- Figure 28: Neqta, March 2019
- Media profile
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- Figure 29: Social media metrics for Neqta as of March 2019
- The brand’s view
- Looking to the future
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Ethical claims rise across the board
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- Figure 30: New product launches in the UK milk, dairy drinks and cream market^ carrying an ethical claim, by claim, 2015-19
- a2 milk ditches plastic bottles
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- Figure 31: A2 Semi-Skimmed Cow's Milk, 2018
- Asda launches AR app to educate consumers on recycling
- Organic claims shoot up
- Yeo Valley rolls out 1.5-litre organic milk
- Plant-based continues to be a hotbed of activity
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- Figure 32: New product launches in the UK milk, dairy drinks and cream market carrying dairy-free and vegan claims, 2015-19
- Innocent makes its first foray into plant-based milk alternatives in 2018
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- Figure 33: Innocent’s dairy alternative products, April 2018
- Alpro adds a premium string to its bow
- Oatly continues to expand its portfolio
- Whole Foods to introduce Mighty Society Pea Milk
- Own-label invests in freshening up their dairy alternatives
- Good Hemp unveils dairy alternative chilled hemp milk
- Koko introduces Super fortified milk alternative
- Sugar reductions made in flavoured milk
- Yazoo relaunches its No Added Sugar range as Yazoo Kids
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- Figure 34: Yazoo relaunch of no added sugar range, November 2018
- Coffee remains a popular flavour in flavoured milk NPD
- Alpro introduces on-the-go to its portfolio
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- Figure 35: Alpro’s Caffè range of RTD drinks, November 2018
- Shaken Udder expands its core range
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Above-the-line spending slows in 2018
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- Figure 36: Total above-the-line, online display, and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, 2015-19
- Arla Protein builds links with exercise on social media
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- Figure 37: Arla Protein social media campaign, December 2017
- Yazoo explores both health and taste
- Continued investment in the plant-based sector
- Alpro steps up invests heavily under Danone
- Innocent opens strong in plant-based
- Oatly brings controversial campaign to the UK
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- Figure 38: Outdoor advertising for Oatly, October 2018
- AHDB and Dairy UK aim to remind consumers of their love of dairy
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- Figure 39: Outdoor advertising for AHDB 2018 consumer campaign, August 2018
- Hillgreen launches online ‘Mission4Milk’ campaign
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 96% of UK adults continue to use milk
- Usage of plant-based milk alternatives and flavoured milk has increased
- 40% of users would pay above £1.20 for a four-pint bottle of milk
- Hot drinks remain the top occasions within white milk
- Environmental and ethical initiatives spark consumer interest
- Plant-based milk alternatives can boost uptake by educating consumers on usage
- Less-sweet flavour profiles can address concerns over sugar in flavoured milk
- Youngest consumers are least positive about cow’s milk importance
- Doorstep milk enjoys an unlikely resurgence helped by plastic backlash
Usage of Milk, Dairy Drinks and Cream
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- UK adult usage of milk remains at 96%
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- Figure 40: Usage of milk, by type, February 2019
- Standard cow’s milk continues to lose relevance for younger consumers
- Women are at the forefront of plant-based milk alternatives usage
- Most plant-based alternatives users also use cow’s milk
- Growth in flavoured milk usage reflected in volume sales
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- Figure 41: Usage of milk and milk drinks, by variety, February 2019
- Semi-skimmed remains dominant
- Cream usage up at 58%
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- Figure 42: Usage of cream, by type, February 2019
How Much Consumers are Prepared to Pay for Milk
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- The 2018 price rise of the four-pint milk looks to have become embedded
- 40% of users would pay above £1.20 for milk
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- Figure 43: How much consumers are prepared to pay for milk, February 2019
Usage Occasions for Cow’s Milk and Plant-Based Milk Alternatives
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- Use with hot drinks remains top occasion across white milk
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- Figure 44: Usage occasions for cow’s milk and plant-based milk alternatives, by type, February 2019
- Cow’s milk is widely used with cereal, plant-based alternatives lag behind
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- Figure 45: Innocent announces new dairy-free drinks range on social media, September 2018
Interest in New Product Concepts in Milk, Milk Drinks and Cream
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- A third of users are interested in recycled plastic packaging
- Milk bottles’ recycled plastic can be a selling point
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- Figure 46: Interest in new product concepts in milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2019
- Other green initiatives should also chime
- Interest in sustainable farming drives communication in plant-based milk alternatives
- 29% of cow’s milk users are interested in sustainable farming
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- Figure 47: Alpro original oat drink and Arla Organic Free Range Milk, February 2019 and August 2018
- Flavoured cream has potential beyond Christmas
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- Figure 48: Häagen-Dazs advertising linking with Wimbledon tennis championships, June 2018
Behaviours Relating to Milk, Milk Drinks and Cream
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- Plant-based milk alternatives can benefit from further educating consumers about uses
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- Figure 49: Behaviours relating to milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2019
- Sugar concerns remain a key put-off for flavoured milk
- Scope to look to less-sweet flavour profiles
- Organic products not seen to deliver value
Attitudes towards Milk, Milk Drinks and Cream
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- Traditional health connotations endure for cow’s milk
- Youngest groups are the least positive about milk’s importance
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- Figure 50: Attitudes towards milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2019
- Doorstep milk enjoys an unlikely resurgence helped by plastic backlash
- A case for driving awareness of green credentials of plastic bottles
- Cost and one-stop shopping are barriers to doorstep delivery
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations, and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 51: New product launches in the UK milk, dairy drinks and cream market^, top 20 claims (sorted by 2018) 2015-19
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Total market
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- Figure 52: UK retail volume sales of white milk, flavoured milk, and cream, 2013-23
- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of milk, milk drinks and cream, by value, 2018-23
- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of milk, milk drinks and cream, by volume, 2018-23
- White milk
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- Figure 55: UK retail volume sales of white milk, 2013-23
- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of white milk, by value, 2018-23
- Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of white milk, by volume, 2018-23
- Cream
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- Figure 58: UK retail volume sales of cream, 2013-23
- Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of cream, by value, 2018-23
- Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of cream, by volume, 2018-23
- Flavoured milk
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- Figure 61: UK retail volume sales of flavoured milk, 2013-23
- Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of milk drinks, by value, 2018-23
- Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK sales of milk drinks, by volume, 2018-23
- Forecast methodology
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