Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales of frozen treats sluggish
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
- Health plays a role in purchase, but consumers still want a treat
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- Figure 2: Statements related to frozen treats (health), March 2015
- The opportunities
- A focus on quality may help boost health perception
- Specialty offerings and smaller brands find appeal
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- Figure 3: Frozen treat (ice cream, gelato, frozen custard) purchase at a supermarket, convenience store or other store, by generation, April 2015
- Non-dairy meets interests as well as needs
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- Figure 4: Reasons for choosing non-dairy, April 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales of frozen treats projected to reach $12.3 billion in 2015
- Ice cream leads category sales, gelato helps to drive growth
- Health plays a role in purchase, but consumers still want a treat
- Foodservice competes for more specialty offerings, attracts young adults
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties to reach $12.3 billion in 2015
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Ice cream leads category sales, gelato helps to drive growth
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 7: MULO sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2010-2015
- Frozen yogurt is on a downward trend
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and volume sales of frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives, at current prices, 2010-15
Market Perspective
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- Health plays a role in purchase, but consumers still want a treat
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- Figure 9: Statements related to frozen treats (health), March 2015
- Foodservice competes for specialty offerings, young adult appeal
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- Figure 10: Frozen treat purchase, by purchase location, April 2015
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- Figure 11: Frozen treat purchase, by generation, April 2015
- Listeria scare impacts brand availability, but should spare the market
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- Figure 12: Statements related to frozen treats (safety), March 2015
Market Factors
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- Ice cream is popular for dessert, but in moderation
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- Figure 13: Dessert consumption, April 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Seven leading companies make up 63% of MULO sales in the category
- Gelato continues to see strong growth
- Frozen yogurt falling out of favor
- Smaller brands see growth across most segments
Manufacturer Sales of Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties
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- Unilever pushes past Nestlé with Talenti acquisition
- Blue Bell recall opens the door for other companies to grow
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies ($ million), rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Gelato continues to see strong growth
- Non-dairy is a bright spot in frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives segment
- Smaller brands see growth across most segments
- Ben & Jerry’s continues to go big
What’s Struggling?
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- Frozen yogurt may be falling out of favor
- Consumers aren’t drawn to diet brands
- Fruit-based treats struggle to meet sweet cravings
What’s Next?
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- Hormone-free/allergen claims see strong growth in 2010-15 launches
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- Figure 15: Ice cream and frozen novelties launches, by leading claims, June 2010-May 2015
- Flavor innovation aims for adult appeal
- Tea
- Coffee
- Alcohol
- International
- Vegetables may work to boost health profile
- Smaller pack sizes allow for price/calorie control
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- Figure 16: Statements related to frozen treats (size), March 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Millennials, Hispanics, parents appear as key consumers
- Sweet satisfaction and snackability lead reasons for purchase
- Non-dairy meets interests as well as needs
- Frozen novelties may suffer from being pigeonholed for kids
Frozen Treat Purchase
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- Millennials, Hispanics, parents show interest in smaller parts of the market
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- Figure 17: Frozen treat purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by generation, April 2015
- Will gelato and frozen custard go the way of frozen yogurt?
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- Figure 18: Frozen treat (ice cream, gelato, frozen custard) purchase at a supermarket, convenience store ,or other store, by generation, April 2015
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- Figure 19: Frozen treat purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by Hispanic origin, April 2015
- Figure 20: Frozen treat (ice cream, gelato, frozen custard) purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by Hispanic origin, April 2015
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- Figure 21: Frozen treat purchase at a supermarket, convenience store, or other store, by parental status, April 2015
- Sherbet, sorbet, ices, turnaround may be on the horizon
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- Figure 22: Frozen treat purchase at store – CHAID – Tree output, April 2015
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- Figure 23: Frozen treat purchase at store – CHAID – Table output, April 2015
Reasons for Purchase
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- Sweet satisfaction and snackability lead reasons for purchase
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- Figure 24: Reasons for purchase, by generation, April 2015
- Shake positioning may be a cool move
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- Figure 25: Reasons for purchase (use), by generation, April 2015
Frozen Treat Traits
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- Single-flavor varieties rule
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- Figure 26: Frozen treat traits, April 2015
- Customization and international flavors can match interests of key purchase groups
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- Figure 27: Statements related to frozen treats (flavor), by generation, March 2015
- Local ingredients can be a consideration for future product development
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- Figure 28: Statements related to frozen treats (local ingredients), by generation, March 2015
- Non-dairy meets interests as well as needs
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- Figure 29: Reasons for choosing non-dairy, April 2015
Perceptions of Frozen Treats
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- Frozen novelties may suffer from being pigeonholed for kids
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- Figure 30: Correspondence Analysis – Characteristics associated with frozen treats, April 2015
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- Figure 31: Characteristics associated with frozen treats, April 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- CHAID methodology
- Correspondence map methodol
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 34: Total US retail volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2010-15
- Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 37: MULO sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 39: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 41: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/dairy alternatives, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 42: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 43: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 44: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 45: US convenience sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 46: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
- Natural channel sales
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- Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 2013-April 2015
- Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen desserts, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
- Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
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- Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of organic frozen desserts, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
- Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
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- Figure 52: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
- Figure 53: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
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- Figure 54: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by lactose-free labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
- Figure 55: Natural supermarket sales of frozen desserts, by probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 56: MULO sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 57: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 58: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 59: MULO sales of frozen yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 60: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbet and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 61: Frozen treats launches, by top 10 claims 2010-15*
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- Figure 62: Ice cream launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
- Figure 63: Frozen novelty launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
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- Figure 64: Frozen yogurt/dairy alternative launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
- Figure 65: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-15*
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