Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The market
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- Figure 1: US restaurant sales, fan chart, 2008-18
- Market drivers
- Opportunities
- 2014 look ahead at menu/operational trends
- Menu analysis
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- Figure 2: Top five flavors of ingredients, by incidence, Q3 2010, Q3 2013
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- Figure 3: Top five menu item claims, by incidence, Q3 2010, Q3 2013
- The consumer
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- Figure 4: Top five Influencers in restaurant choice, October 2013
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- Figure 5: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by percent, October 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Value for the money is a perennial factor in choosing a restaurant
- The issues
- The implications
- Consumers want to have the entire dining experience their way
- The issues
- The implications
- Consumers choose restaurants that support their values
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Make it Mine
- Trend: Nonstandard Society
- Mintel Futures: Human
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Industry shows healthy growth over the past two years
- Sales and forecast of restaurants
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- Figure 6: US restaurant sales and forecast, at current prices, 2008-18
- Figure 7: US restaurant sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
- Restaurant sales by full-service and limited-service segments
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- Figure 8: US restaurant sales by segment, at current prices, 2011 and 2013
- Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
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- Figure 9: US limited-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2008-18
- Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
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- Figure 10: US full-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: US restaurant sales, fan chart, 2008-18
Market Drivers
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- Economic indicators
- Commodity price outlook is positive, except for beef
- Diet and health are moving targets
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- Figure 12: Defining healthy dining, by gender, April 2013
- Millennials are a powerful demographic
2014 Look Ahead
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- Key points
- Fast casual pulls ahead
- Pizza is prime for fast casual
- Quick serve restaurants expand into fast casual
- Full-service restaurants experiment with fast casual
- Premium proves practical
- Better burgers exude value
- Premium spills over into other categories
- Healthy options boost image
- Open-book ethical business practices
- Customers care about fair treatment of animals
- Fair treatment of employees matters
- Social responsibility is a benchmark
- Due demographic diligence
- Millennials set a pattern
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- Figure 13: Technology services consumers like at restaurants, by Millennials, November 2013
- Hispanics eat out more
- Women are health and budget gatekeepers
- Baby Boomers have disposable income
- Technology interface revolution
- Step up to in-store tablets
- Next-generation digital ordering
- Loyalty plans benefit from technology advances
Innovations and Innovators
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- Going retail
- Expand with delivery and catering
- Renovate to allure
- Expand into nontraditional locations
- Build your own
- Co-branding or cross-branding
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Content marketing
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- Figure 14: Panera Bread’s YouTube Video, “Breakfast Backstory,” November 2013
- Engage with contests
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- Figure 15: Zaxby’s YouTube Video, “Prove Your Fanhood,” October 2013
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- Figure 16: Tim Hortons’ YouTube Video, “Tim Hortons Duelling Donuts—Judgment Day with Jason Priestley,” August 2013
- Figure 17: T.G.I. Friday’s YouTube Video, “Red Hot Summer of Music Kickoff Bash,” July 2013
- Movie tie-ins
- Tap into celebrity
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- Figure 18: Papa John’s YouTube Video, “Quarterback Sneak,” September 2013
- Cause marketing
Social Media – Dining Out – A 2014 Look Ahead
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 19: Key social media indicators, Dec. 16, 2012-Dec. 15, 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 20: Brand usage and awareness of restaurant brands, November 2013
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 21: Interaction with restaurant brands, November 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 22: Online mentions, selected restaurant brands, Dec. 16, 2012-Dec. 15, 2013
- Where are people talking about restaurant brands?
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- Figure 23: Mentions by page type, selected restaurant brands, Dec. 16, 2012-Dec. 15, 2013
- What are people talking about online?
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- Figure 24: Mentions by topic of conversation, selected restaurant brands, Dec. 16, 2012-Dec. 15, 2013
- Brand analysis
- McDonald’s
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- Figure 25: McDonald’s key social media indicators, November 2013
- Chipotle
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- Figure 26: Chipotle key social media indicators, November 2013
- Panera Bread
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- Figure 27: Panera Bread key social media indicators, November 2013
- Wendy’s
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- Figure 28: Wendy’s key social media indicators, November 2013
- The Cheesecake Factory
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- Figure 29: The Cheesecake Factory key social media indicators, November 2013
- Chili’s
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- Figure 30: Chili’s key social media indicators, November 2013
Menu Analysis
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- Key points
- Beef still rules
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- Figure 31: Top 10 menu item dishes at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
- Tomatoes, chicken, and onions are tops
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- Figure 32: Top 10 menu ingredients at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
- Seasoned implies flavor
- Peppers deliver on spice
- New iterations for spicy
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- Figure 33: Top 10 flavor of ingredients, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
- Gluten-free continues as top menu item claim
- Several ways to spell proprietary
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- Figure 34: Top 10 menu item claims, by incidence, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
Consumer Trends by Gender
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- Key points
- Fast food or fast casual burgers and chicken reign, especially with men
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- Figure 35: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by gender, October 2013
- Men are into soft drinks and breakfast sandwiches
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- Figure 36: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by gender, October 2013
- More men plan to dine out more
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- Figure 37: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by gender, October 2013
- More men also plan to spend more money dining out
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- Figure 38: Consumer spending plans in 2014, by gender, October 2013
- Women demonstrate cost consciousness
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- Figure 39: Delivery and takeout plans in 2014, by gender, October 2013
- Value menus and healthy items appeal to women
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- Figure 40: Influencers in restaurant choice, by gender, October 2013
- Target women with price promotions and men with inside technology
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- Figure 41: Use of services in restaurants, by gender, October 2013
- Women like to combine appetizers or sides for a meal
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- Figure 42: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by gender, October 2013
Consumer Trends by Age Demographics
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- Key points
- Millennials eat at the most foodservice types
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- Figure 43: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by generations, October 2013
- The youngest adults like breakfast fare and soft drinks
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- Figure 44: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by generations, October 2013
- Younger adults plan to eat out more
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- Figure 45: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by generations, October 2013
- Takeout and delivery are more important to the youngest adults
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- Figure 46: Delivery and takeout plans in 2014, by generations, October 2013
- Younger adults support healthy, sustainable operations
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- Figure 47: Influencers in restaurant choice, by generations, October 2013
- Younger adults are powered by technology
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- Figure 48: Use of services in restaurants, by generations, October 2013
- Generation X tries most any menu type items
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- Figure 49: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by generations, October 2013
Consumer Trends by Annual Income
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- Key points
- Four restaurant types show the widest customer income difference
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- Figure 50: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by household income, October 2013
- Sandwiches, entrées, and salads appeal to high-income earners
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- Figure 51: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by household income, October 2013
- Most high-income earners plan to eat out about the same in 2014
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- Figure 52: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by household income, October 2013
- Low-income earners most likely to order takeout and delivery
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- Figure 53: Delivery and takeout plans in 2014, by household income, October 2013
- High-income earners are not easily influenced in restaurant choice
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- Figure 54: Influencers in restaurant choice, by household income, October 2013
- High-income earners expect restaurants to have a website
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- Figure 55: Use of services in restaurants, by household income, October 2013
Consumer Trends by Region
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- Key points
- Northeasterners favor coffee shops and fine dining
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- Figure 56: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by region, October 2013
- Northeasterners plan to eat out about the same in 2014
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- Figure 57: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by region, October 2013
Consumer Trends by Presence of Children
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- Key points
- Those with children visit more restaurant types
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- Figure 58: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by presence of children in household, October 2013
- Menu orders are influenced by children
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- Figure 59: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by presence of children in household, October 2013
- Those with children plan to dine out more in 2014
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- Figure 60: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by presence of children in household, October 2013
- Those with children plan to spend more in 2014
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- Figure 61: Consumer spending plans in 2014, by presence of children in household, October 2013
- Takeout and delivery is more appealing to those with children
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- Figure 62: Delivery and takeout plans in 2014, by presence of children in household, October 2013
- Diet and nutrition matters to those with children
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- Figure 63: Influencers in restaurant choice, by presence of children in household, October 2013
- Those with children use technology in conjunction with dining out
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- Figure 64: Use of services in restaurants, by presence of children in household, October 2013
Consumer Trends by Race
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- Key points
- Asians gravitate toward prepared foods from grocery stores and coffee shops
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- Figure 65: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by race, October 2013
- Blacks are keen on breakfast and soft drinks
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- Figure 66: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by race, October 2013
- Whites plan to dine out about the same amount in 2014
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- Figure 67: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by race, October 2013
- Blacks like to see food prepared while they wait
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- Figure 68: Influencers in restaurant choice, by race, October 2013
- Asians expect restaurants to use social media
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- Figure 69: Use of services in restaurants, by race, October 2013
Consumer Trends by Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Breakfast items are popular with Hispanics
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- Figure 70: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by Hispanic origin, October 2013
- Hispanics plan to cut back on eating out
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- Figure 71: Frequency of dining out in 2014, by Hispanic origin, October 2013
- Hispanics are interested in health
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- Figure 72: Influencers in restaurant choice, by Hispanic origin, October 2013
- Hispanics lean toward traditional meals rather than appetizer combining
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- Figure 73: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by Hispanic origin, October 2013
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 74: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Have tried and would try again, by gender, October 2013
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- Figure 75: Consumer spending plans in 2014, by generations, October 2013
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- Figure 76: Consumer spending plans in 2014, by household income, October 2013
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- Figure 77: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by household income, October 2013
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- Figure 78: Consumer spending plans in 2014, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2013
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- Figure 79: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2013
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- Figure 80: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2013
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- Figure 81: Use of services in restaurants, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2013
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- Figure 82: Parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, by region, October 2013
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- Figure 83: Consumer spending plans in 2014, by region, October 2013
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- Figure 84: Delivery and takeout plans in 2014, by region, October 2013
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- Figure 85: Influencers in restaurant choice, by region, October 2013
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- Figure 86: Use of services in restaurants, by region, October 2013
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- Figure 87: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by region, October 2013
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- Figure 88: Types of food and drink consumers have ordered/tried—Any interest, by presence of children in household, October 2013
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- Figure 89: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by frequency of visiting websites, October 2013
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- Figure 90: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by frequency of visiting websites, October 2013
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- Figure 91: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by frequency of visiting social media website, October 2013
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- Figure 92: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by frequency of visiting social media website, October 2013
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- Figure 93: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, October 2013
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- Figure 94: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by parts of the menu ordered from in the past month, October 2013
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- Figure 95: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by beverage ordered from it in the past month, October 2013
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- Figure 96: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by influencers in restaurant choice, October 2013
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- Figure 97: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by influencers in restaurant choice, October 2013
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- Figure 98: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by influencers in restaurant choice, October 2013
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- Figure 99: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by use of services in restaurants, October 2013
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- Figure 100: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by use of services in restaurants, October 2013
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- Figure 101: Type of restaurant/food outlet visited in the past month, by use of services in restaurants, October 2013
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Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Restaurant Performance Index
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- Figure 102: Restaurant Performance Index, January 2009-October 2013
- Median household income
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- Figure 103: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2002-12
- Consumer sentiment
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- Figure 104: Consumer sentiment, January 2010-November 2013
- Unemployment and underemployment
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- Figure 105: Incidence of unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-November 2013
- Food prices
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- Figure 106: Changes in Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
- Childhood obesity
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- Figure 107: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
- Shifting age demographics
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- Figure 108: US population, by age, 2008-18
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 109: US population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
- Households by presence of children
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- Figure 110: US households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Appendix – Social Media
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 111: Brand usage or awareness, November 2013
- Figure 112: McDonald’s usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 113: Wendy’s usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 114: Chili’s usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 115: Cheesecake Factory usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 116: Chipotle usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 117: Panera usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2013
- Activities done
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- Figure 118: Activities done, November 2013
- Figure 119: McDonald’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 120: McDonald’s—Activities done—I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 121: McDonald’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 122: McDonald’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 123: Wendy’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 124: Wendy’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 125: Wendy’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 126: Wendy’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 127: Chili’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 128: Chili’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 129: Chili’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 130: Chili’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 131: Cheesecake Factory—Activities done—I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 132: Cheesecake Factory – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 133: Cheesecake Factory – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 134: Chipotle – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 135: Chipotle – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 136: Chipotle – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 137: Panera – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 138: Panera – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Figure 139: Panera – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics, November 2013
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- Figure 140: Panera – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by demographics, November 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 141: selected restaurant brands, Dec. 16, 2012-Dec. 15, 2013
Appendix – Trade Associations
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