Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Vegetarian/meat-free foods
- Free-from foods, or foods catering for food hypersensitivity ie food intolerance and allergies
- Definition of food allergy vs food intolerance
- Excluded
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The meat-free and free-from markets are forecast to enjoy steady growth
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- Figure 1: Value retail sales and forecast of the UK meat-free* market, 2008-18
- Figure 2: Value retail sales and forecast of the UK free-from* market, 2008-18
- Segment performance
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of meat-free food, by sector, 2013 (est)
- Market factors
- Horsemeat scandal has little sales impact on meat-free
- Food allergies among children have increased
- Ageing population could present a challenge for the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Own-label NPD is on course to overtake branded in meat substitutes
- Morrisons leads the charge with NPD
- Warburtons rebrands gluten-free range as Newburn Bakehouse
- Heinz makes it gluten-free debut
- Quorn dominates adspend in meat-free
- Quorn reinforces its market leadership
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK chilled vegetarian products market, 2013
- Alpro leads the free-from market
- The consumer
- 12% of adults are vegetarians/vegans
- Red meat is the most typically-avoided food
- Quorn-based products are the most popular meat alternatives
- One in four adults have eaten and an equal number have bought free-from food
- Meat-free food is perceived as a healthy and green option
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- Figure 5: Consumer perceptions of meat-free products, July 2013
- High protein content struggles to offset flavour disappointment
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- Figure 6: Consumer attitudes towards vegetarian and meat-free products, July 2013
- One in three want to see more own-label free-from food
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- Figure 7: Consumer attitudes towards free-from products, July 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can meat substitute brands encourage stronger usage?
- What NPD is there strong interest in in the free-from market?
- Which factors are most likely to encourage meat-eaters to switch to meat substitutes?
- How can manufacturers reinforce usage among families?
Trend Application
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- Trend: Man in the Mirror
- Trend: Guiding Choice
- Mintel Futures Trend: Generation Next
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- The impact of the horsemeat scandal
- Calls for prescribed gluten-free food to be scrapped
- Labelling for allergy sufferers could be made clearer
- Food allergies among children have increased
- Ageing population could present a challenge for the market
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- Figure 8: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2013-18
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Definition
- New food launches featuring vegetarian claims reaches four-year high in 2012
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- Figure 9: Share of new product launches within UK meat-free and free-from categories, of total UK food launches, 2009-13*
- Own-label NPD in meat substitutes is on course to overtake branded
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- Figure 10: Share of new product launches within the UK meat substitutes market, own-label vs branded, 2009-13*
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- Figure 11: Share of new product launches within the UK meat substitutes market, by company, 2009-13*
- Morrisons leads the charge with own-label activity in 2013
- Chilled formats regain share of NPD
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- Figure 12: Share of new product launches within the UK meat substitutes market, by storage, 2009-13*
- Quorn updates recipes with improved flavours
- Meet The Alternative launches with a meaty appearance
- Sauces and seasonings a focus for gluten-free NPD
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- Figure 13: Share of new product launches within the UK gluten-free market, by product category, 2009-13*
- Heinz makes its gluten-free debut
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- Figure 14: Share of new product launches within the UK gluten-free market, by brand, 2009-13*
- Warburtons gluten-free bread range is renamed Newburn Bakehouse…
- … as Genius gains a new look and Asda listings
- Alpro leads NPD in lactose-free sector
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- Figure 15: Share of new product launches within the UK lactose-free market, by company, 2009-13*
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- The meat-free and free-from markets are forecast to enjoy steady growth
- The meat-free market
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- Figure 16: Value sales and forecast of the UK meat-free* market, 2008-18
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- Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of meat-free foods*, 2008-18
- The free-from market
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- Figure 18: Value sales and forecast of the UK free-from* market, 2008-18
- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of free-from foods*, 2008-18
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Chilled marginally extends its lead over frozen
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of meat-free food, by storage, 2010-12
- Ready meals drive volume growth
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- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of meat-free foods, by segment, 2010-12
- Figure 22: UK retail volume sales of meat-free foods, by segment, 2010-12
- Gluten and dairy-free continue to enjoy strong growth
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- Figure 23: Estimated UK retail sales of free-from foods, by type, by value, 2010-12
Market Share
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- Key points
- Quorn outperforms the chilled vegetarian market in value terms
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK chilled vegetarian products market, 2013
- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled vegetarian products market, by value and volume, 2011/12* and 2012/13**
- Quorn’s value sales outpace volume growth
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen vegetarian products market, by value and volume, 2011/12* and 2012/13**
- Alpro sales benefit from new nut-based drinks
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- Figure 27: Estimated value sales of leading UK brands in the free-from foods sector, 2011 and 2012
- Genius goes from strength to strength
Companies and Products
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- Quorn Foods (Quorn, Cauldron)
- Hain Celestial (Linda McCartney, Realeat)
- Free-from
- Alpro – Dean Foods
- Genius Foods
- Warburtons
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend in meat-free is reliant on Quorn
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- Figure 28: Total adspend in the meat-free market, 2009-13*
- Figure 29: Total adspend in the meat-free market, by brand, 2009-13*
- Alpro invests in Almond milk drink
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- Figure 30: Total adspend in the dairy and gluten/wheat free-from market, 2009-13*
- Figure 31: Total adspend in the free-from market, by company, 2009-13*
Consumer – Usage
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- Key points
- 12% of adults are vegetarians/vegans, rising to 20% of 16-24s
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- Figure 32: Prevalence of vegetarian/vegan diets, July 2013
- Red meat is the most typically avoided food
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- Figure 33: Types of food avoided, July 2013
- Under-35s are notably more likely to avoid certain foods than over-35s
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- Figure 34: Types of food avoided (any avoid), by selected age groups, July 2013
Consumer – Types of Meat-free and Free-from Food Used
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- Key points
- Quorn-based products are the most popular type of meat alternatives
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- Figure 35: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods bought or eaten, July 2013
- One in four adults have eaten or bought free-from food
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- Figure 36: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought, July 2013
Consumer Perceptions of Meat-free Products
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- Key points
- Meat-free food is perceived as a light, healthy and green option
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- Figure 37: Consumer perceptions of meat-free products, July 2013
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- Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of meat and meat-free products being healthy, by gender, July 2013
- Protein-rich messages could raise positive perceptions among men
- Just one in three associate meat-free with being easy to cook
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- Figure 39: Associating meat and meat-free products with being easy to cook, by age, July 2013
- Meat-free loses out on the flavour front
- Meat-free scores highly for green credentials
Consumer Attitudes Towards Vegetarian and Meat-free Products
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- Key points
- High protein content struggles to offset flavour disappointment
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- Figure 40: Consumer attitudes towards vegetarian and meat-free products, July 2013
- Interest in added seasoning on meat substitutes can improve their bland image...
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- Figure 41: Agreement with the statements ‘Meat substitutes lack flavour,’ and ‘I’d be keen to try meat substitute pieces (eg nuggets and fillets) containing herbs/spices,’ by gender and age, July 2013
- … and there is also interest in tastier tofu
- Opportunities for child-friendly meat substitutes
- Meat substitutes that resemble meat can be off-putting
- Lack of trust surrounding how meat substitutes are produced
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- Figure 42: Agreement with the statement, ‘I trust how meat substitutes are produced more than processed meat goods (eg sausages),’ by age, July 2013
Consumer Attitudes Towards Free-from Products
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- Key points
- One in three want to see more own-label free-from food
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- Figure 43: Consumer attitudes towards free-from products, July 2013
- Dissatisfaction with gluten-free bread increases with age
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- Figure 44: Agreement with the statements, ‘Gluten-free bread lacks the texture of regular bread,’ and ‘Gluten-free bread lacks the flavour of regular bread,’ by age, July 2013
- Just one in four users trust manufacturers to protect free-from food from contamination
- A quarter of female users note a lack of low-calorie gluten-free food
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- Figure 45: Agreement with the statement, ‘There is a lack of low-calorie gluten-free food available in supermarkets,’ by gender and age, July 2013
Further Analysis – Factors That Would Encourage Switching from Meat to Meat-free
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- Key points
- Value for money and flavour are the key obstacles to take-up
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- Figure 46: Factors that would encourage switching from meat to meat-free, July 2013
- Interest in meat substitutes with meaty flavours and textures
- Low calorie count would tempt one in five meat eaters to switch to a meat substitute
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for total UK value sales of meat-free foods, 2013-18
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for total UK volume sales of meat-free foods, 2013-18
- Figure 49: Volume sales and forecast of the UK meat-free* market, 2008-18
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- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for total UK value sales of free-from foods, 2013-18
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Appendix – Who’s Innovating?
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- Figure 51: Share of new product launches within the UK gluten-free bakery market, by sub category, 2009-13*
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Appendix – Usage of Meat-free and Free-from Foods
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- Figure 52: Prevalence of vegetarian/vegan diets, July 2013
- Figure 53: Prevalence of vegetarian/vegan diets – Myself, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 54: Prevalence of vegetarian/vegan diets, by demographics – Others in my household, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer – Types of Food Avoided
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- Figure 55: Types of food avoided, July 2013
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- Figure 56: Types of food avoided – Dairy, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 57: Types of food avoided – Lactose, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 58: Types of food avoided – Wheat, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 59: Types of food avoided – Gluten, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 60: Types of food avoided – Nuts, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 61: Types of food avoided – Fish or shellfish, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 62: Types of food avoided – Soya, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 63: Types of food avoided – Celery, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 64: Types of food avoided – Eggs, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 65: Types of food avoided – Red meat, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 66: Types of food avoided – Poultry, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 67: Types of food avoided – Other, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Types of Vegetarian/Meat-free Foods Used
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- Figure 68: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought, July 2013
- Figure 69: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Quorn-based products, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 70: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Tofu-based products, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 71: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Soya based products, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 72: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Other or mixed vegetable protein products, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 73: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Bean-based products, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 74: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Nut-based products, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 75: Types of vegetarian/meat-free foods eaten/bought – Vegetarian ready meal, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Perceptions of Meat-free Products
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- Figure 76: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products, July 2013
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- Figure 77: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Healthy, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 78: Consumer perceptions of meat-free products – Cheap, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 79: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Trustworthy, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 80: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Light, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 81: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Easy to cook, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 82: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Environmentally friendly, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 83: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Good for you, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 84: Consumer perceptions of meat-free vs. meat products – Flavoursome, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Factors that Would Encourage Switching from Meat to Meat-free
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- Figure 85: Factors that would encourage switching from meat to meat-free, July 2013
- Figure 86: Most popular factors that would encourage switching from meat to meat-free, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 87: Next most popular factors that would encourage switching from meat to meat-free, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 88: Other factors that would encourage switching from meat to meat-free, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Vegetarian and Meat-free Products
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- Figure 89: Consumer attitudes towards vegetarian and meat-free products, July 2013
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- Figure 90: Agreement with the statement ‘Meat substitutes lack flavour’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 91: Agreement with the statement ‘I am put off by meat substitutes which resemble meat’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 92: Agreement with the statement ‘I’d be keen to try meat substitute pieces containing herbs/spices, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 93: Agreement with the statement ‘There is a lack of meat substitutes for children^’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 94: Agreement with the statement ‘I’d like to see more flavoursome tofu products’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 95: Agreement with the statement ‘Meat substitutes are a good source of protein’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 96: Agreement with the statement ‘Cutting out meat for one day a week is good for the environment’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 97: Agreement with the statement ‘I trust how meat substitutes are produced more than processed meat goods’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 98: Agreement with the statement ‘Chilled ‘meat-free’ products are worth paying more for than frozen ‘meat-free’ products’, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 99: Agreement with the statement ‘It’s sometimes difficult to find vegetarian products in supermarkets’, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Types of Free-From Foods Used
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- Figure 100: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought, July 2013
- Figure 101: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Any, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 102: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Gluten-free, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 103: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Wheat-free, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 104: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Lactose-free, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 105: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Dairy-free, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 106: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Dairy substitutes, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 107: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Nut-free, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 108: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Egg-free, by demographics, July 2013
- Figure 109: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Soya-free, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 110: Types of free-from foods eaten/bought – Other ‘free-from’ foods, by demographics, July 2013
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Free-from Products
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- Figure 111: Consumer attitudes towards free-from products, July 2013
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- Figure 112: Most popular consumer attitudes towards free-from products, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 113: Next most popular consumer attitudes towards free-from products, by demographics, July 2013
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- Figure 114: Other consumer attitudes towards free-from products, by demographics, July 2013
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