Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Advertising creative
- Acronyms and terms
- Acronyms
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Cookie/cookie bar category rebounds in 2011
- Standard cookies’ growth responsible for much of category’s growth
- Rising ingredient prices and obesity challenge sector growth
- Category faces competition on variety of fronts
- Supermarkets see slight market share gain of cereal/snack bar sales
- Kraft Foods dominates FDMx channel
- Cookie/cookie bar product launches slumping since 2010
- Traditional advertising and social media key marketing components
- Today’s cookie/cookie bar consumer
Insights and Opportunities
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- Diabetic-friendly yet appealing to all seeking low/no-sugar variants
- Branded cookie shops
- Retailers should leverage private label opportunities
- Candy bar brands could invigorate cookie bar segment
- Tap into interest in functional benefit ingredients
- Develop meal replacement cookies/cookie bars
- Create licensing agreements to promote brands and boost revenue
Inspire Insights
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- Trend 1: Factory Fear
- Trend 2: Never Say Die
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Market rebounds in 2011
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of cookies/cookie bars, at current prices, 2006-16
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of cookies/cookie bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 3: Fan chart forecast of cookies/cookie bars, 2006-16
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Obesity rates affecting discretionary calorie consumption
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- Figure 4: Percentage of population aged 20+ who are overweight, obese, or extremely obese, 1988-2008
- Bakery products’ prices to increase in 2012
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- Figure 5: Changes in food price indexes, 2009-12
- Figure 6: Real disposable income, 2007-11*
- Low teen population growth means smaller key target audience
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- Figure 7: Population by age, 2006-16
- Number of households with children continue to decline
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- Figure 8: Households by presence of children, 2001-11
- Asian and Hispanic population growth increases groups’ influence
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- Figure 9: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Consumers somewhat split regarding name brands and private label
- New manufacturers and products encroaching on market
- Girl Scout cookies would rank as number two FDMx manufacturer
- In-store bakeries (ISBs) enjoy freshness perception
- Baking from scratch a real option for cookie/cookie bar fans
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Standard cookies set the bar for the category
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- Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of cookies/cookie bars, by segment
Segment Performance—Standard Cookies
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- Key points
- Sales show growth compared to flat 2010
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Premium Cookies
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- Key points
- Segment growth at a premium
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- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Healthy Cookies
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- Key points
- Healthy cookies segment may be poised for sustained growth
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- Figure 13: Snacks considered healthy
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- Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of healthy cookies, at current prices, 2006-16
Segment Performance—Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Sales of cookie bars continue to decline
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- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of cookie bars, at current prices, 2006-16
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets post slight market share gain
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- Figure 16: Total U.S. sales of cookies/cookie bars, by channel, 2009 and 2011
- Supermarkets need to leverage format’s unique strengths
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- Figure 17: Supermarket sales of cookies/cookie bars, at current prices, 2006-11
- Cookie/cookie bar easy to stock in “other” retailer formats
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- Figure 18: Other retailers sales of cookies/cookie bars, at current prices, 2006-11
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Gluten-free cookies spur growth in natural supermarkets
- Sales of cookies/cookie bars in natural channel
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- Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of cookies/cookie bars, at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of cookies/cookie bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Brands of significance
- Natural channel sales of cookies/cookie bars, by organic content
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- Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of cookies/cookie bars, by organic content, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of cookies/cookie bars by gluten presence
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- Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of cookies/cookie bars, by gluten presence, 2009 and 2011*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods posts largest sales and share gain
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- Figure 23: Manufacturer FDMx sales of cookies/cookie bars in the U.S., 2010-11
Brand Share—Standard Cookies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods dominates segment as fastest-growing manufacturer
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- Figure 24: Selected FDMx brand sales of standard cookies, 2010-11
Brand Share—Premium Cookies
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- Key points
- Despite a rough economy, premium segment sales fairly stable
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- Figure 25: Selected FDMx brand sales of premium cookies, 2010-11
Brand Share—Healthy Cookies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods’ strong growth drives big share gain
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- Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of healthy cookies, 2010-11
Brand Share—Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Nothing small about McKee Foods Corp.’s Little Debbie market share
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- Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of cookie bars, 2010-11
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- During 2008-12, introductions peaked in 2010
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- Figure 28: Cookie/cookie bar product launches, by top 10 claims, 2008-12*
- Chocolate is top new product flavor
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- Figure 29: Cookie/cookie bar product launches, by top 10 flavors, 2008-12*
- Kraft Foods top company for introductions
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- Figure 30: Cookie/cookie bar product launches, by top 15 companies, 2008-12*
- Trader Joe’s tops brand ranking for cookie/cookie bar introductions
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- Figure 31: Cookie/cookie bar product launches, by top 15 brands, 2008-12*
- Growth of name brand introductions outpacing private label
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- Figure 32: Cookie/cookie bar product launches, by private label share, 2008-12*
- Product innovations
- Standard cookies
- Premium cookies
- Healthy cookies
- Private label
- Cookie bars
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods celebrating OREO’s 100th birthday
- Keebler encouraging blood donations
- Cookie/cookie bar consumers responsive to coupons
- TV advertising
- Nabisco OREO
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- Figure 33: Nabisco/OREO, March 2012
- Pepperidge Farm Milano Melts
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- Figure 34: Pepperidge Farm/Milano Melts, January 2012
- Nabisco Newtons Fruit Thins
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- Figure 35: Nabisco/Newtons fruit thins, June 2011
- Nabisco Chips Ahoy!
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- Figure 36: Nabisco/Chips Ahoy!, May 2011
Household Usage
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- Key points
- Adult cookie usage by type shows little change in recent years
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- Figure 37: Cookies (ready-to-eat), July 2007-September 2011
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- Figure 38: Brand usage—cookies (ready-to-eat), July 2007-September 2011
- Kids’ cookie usage down slightly
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- Figure 39: Cookies, July 2007-September 2011
- Teens have highest package consumption levels
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- Figure 40: Cookies (ready-to-eat), July 2007-September 2011
Consumption and Purchase Frequency
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- Key points
- Cookie consumption more frequent than cookie bars
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- Figure 41: Consumption frequency, December 2011
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- Figure 42: Consumption frequency, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 43: Consumption frequency, by age, December 2011
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- Figure 44: Consumption frequency, by presence of children in household, December 2011
- Younger consumers most likely to buy for others and guests
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- Figure 45: Why consumers buy cookies for their household, by age, December 2011
- Figure 46: Why consumers buy cookies for their household, by household income, December 2011
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- Figure 47: Why consumers buy cookies for their households, by presence of children in household, December 2011
Purchase Behavior
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- Key points
- Prepackaged cookies generate highest purchase incidence
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- Figure 48: Cookie/cookie bar types purchased, by age, December 2011
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- Figure 49: Cookie/cookie bar types purchased, by household income, December 2011
- Figure 50: Cookie/cookie bar types purchased, by presence of children in household, December 2011
- Snack bars an occasional cookie/cookie bar alternative for younger consumers
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- Figure 51: Purchase and consumption behavior, by age, December 2011
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- Figure 52: Purchase and consumption behavior, by household income, December 2011
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- Figure 53: Purchase and consumption behavior, by presence of children in household, December 2011
- Price/value and favored brands drive purchase decisions
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- Figure 54: Purchase behavior, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 55: Purchase behavior, by household income, December 2011
Cookie Characteristics of Importance
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- Key points
- Oldest consumers interested in nutritional attributes
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- Figure 56: Attributes that matter to cookie consumers, by age, December 2011
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- Figure 57: Attributes that matter to cookie consumers, by household income, December 2011
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- Figure 58: Other characteristics that matter, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 59: Other characteristics that matter, by age, December 2011
- Figure 60: Other characteristics that matter, by household income, December 2011
Where Consumers Buy Cookies
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- Key points
- Supermarkets destination of choice but hardly only option
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- Figure 61: Where consumers buy cookies, December 2011
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- Figure 62: Where consumers buy cookies, by age, December 2011
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- Figure 63: Where consumers buy cookies, by household income, December 2011
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- Figure 64: Where consumers buy cookies, by presence of children in household, December 2011
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- Figure 65: Where consumers buy cookies, by region, December 2011
Eating Occasions
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- Key points
- Cookies/cookie bars eaten to satisfy hunger
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- Figure 66: Eating occasions, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 67: Eating occasions, by age, December 2011
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- Figure 68: Eating occasions, by household income, December 2011
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Asians most frequent cookie/cookie bar eaters
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- Figure 69: Consumption frequency, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Multicultural groups indicate preference for prepackaged cookies
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- Figure 70: Types purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Asians show greater interest in BFY-type attributes
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- Figure 71: Other characteristics that matter, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Figure 72: Attributes that matter to cookie consumers, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Supermarkets format of choice for whites
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- Figure 73: Where consumers buy cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
- Cookie/cookie bar eating occasions differ by race/Hispanic origin
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- Figure 74: Eating occasions, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2011
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Key points
- Behavior/attitudes, by usage groups
- Heavy cookie users seek convenience
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- Figure 75: Types purchased, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Heavy cookie users in tune with nutritional attributes
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- Figure 76: Attributes that matter to cookie consumers, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Heavy cookie users most likely to try different flavors and types
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- Figure 77: Purchase and consumption behavior, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Flavor type a key consideration for all user groups
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- Figure 78: Other characteristics that matter, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Potential may be there to nurture light cookie users
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- Figure 79: Why consumers buy cookies for their household, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Value important to all cookie user groups
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- Figure 80: Purchase behavior, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Minimal difference for purchase location
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- Figure 81: Where consumers buy cookies, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
- Light users consume when bored or traveling
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- Figure 82: Eating occasions, by custom consumer groups, December 2011
SymphonyIRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Cookies—U.S.
- Cookies
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—cookies
- Brand map
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- Figure 83: Brand map—selected brands of cookie buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 84: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cookie, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 85: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of private label cookies/cookie bars, at current prices, 2006-16
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- Figure 86: Consumption frequency, by household income, December 2011
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- Figure 87: Consumption frequency, by region, December 2011
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- Figure 88: Types purchased, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 89: Purchase behavior among parents, December 2011
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- Figure 90: Attributes that matter to cookie consumers, by gender, December 2011
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- Figure 91: Where consumers buy cookies, by geography, December 2011
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- Figure 92: Eating occasions, by region, December 2011
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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