Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Market conditions show the way out of industry contraction
- Industry trends will drive menu innovation
- Marketing success can be measured, leading to more of what works
- Trended menu research shows what is hot and what’s on its way out
- Consumers share their dining-out habits and future prospects
- Kids and teens indicate their preferences
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- A Millennial view of cultural cuisines
- Loophole in menu labeling laws
Inspire Insights
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- Trend—Fit or Fat
- Consider this
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- Figure 1: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, October 2010
- Bottom line
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- A return to normalcy in the restaurant industry
- Sales and forecast of restaurants
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- Figure 2: U.S. restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 3: U.S. restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Sales and forecast of full-service restaurants
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- Figure 4: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 5: U.S. full-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Sales and forecast of limited-service restaurants
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- Figure 6: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 7: U.S. limited-service restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Fan-chart forecast
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- Figure 8: Restaurant industry fanned forecast, at current prices, 2005-15
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Economic factors
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- Figure 9: Unemployment and underemployment rate in the U.S., January 2007-November 2010
- Figure 10: U.S. real disposable personal income growth, January 2007-November 2010
- Attitudes and behaviors
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- Figure 11: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-December 2010
- Figure 12: NRA performance indices, January 2009-November 2010
- Demographic factors
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- Figure 13: Population, by age, 2005-15
2011 Look Ahead
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- Key points
- Restaurant and menu transparency
- Healthful halo
- Technology abounds
- Indigenous ingredients
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- Figure 14: Top five foods, beverages, cuisines, and culinary themes 2009-2011
Menu Insights Analysis—Growing Menu Items
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- Key points
- Top menu items
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- Figure 15: Top 10 menu items at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
- Top nutrition claims
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- Figure 16: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
- Top menu item claims
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- Figure 17: Top 10 menu item claims at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
Menu Insights Analysis—New Cuisines Bring New Flavors
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- Top cuisine types
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- Figure 18: Cuisine types at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
- Top flavor mentions
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- Figure 19: Flavors at restaurants, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2010
Marketing Strategies
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- Key points
- Television ads
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- Figure 20: Burger King new breakfast menu ad, 2010
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- Figure 21: Panera Bread panini ad, 2010
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- Figure 22: Chili’s LTO $9.99 ad, 2010
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- Figure 23: KFC double down ad, 2010
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- Figure 24: IHOP fall festival of flavors ad, 2010
- Websites
- Burger King
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- Figure 25: BK.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
- Denny’s
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- Figure 26: Dennys.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
- Qdoba Mexican Grill
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- Figure 27: Qdoba.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
- Taco Bell
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- Figure 28: tacobell.com monthly visitors, December 2009-November 2010
- El Pollo Loco
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- Figure 29: elpolloloco.com monthly visitors, October 2009-September 2010
- Social media
- Pizza Hut
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- Figure 30: Pizza Hut Facebook ordering app, December 2010
- Dairy Queen
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- Figure 31: Dairy Queen Blizzard Fan Club Facebook promotion, December 2010
- CKE Restaurants Inc. (Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr.)
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- Figure 32: Hardee’s Facebook page, December 2010
- McDonald’s
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- Figure 33: McDonald’s Facebook page, December 2010
Restaurant Usage
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- Key points
- Restaurant visit averages
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- Figure 34: Restaurant usage, October 2010
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- Figure 35: Restaurant usage, by age, October 2010
- Figure 36: Restaurant usage, by household income, September 2010
Changes in Restaurant Spending
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- Key points
- Restaurant usage next year
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- Figure 37: Restaurant usage next year, October 2010
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- Figure 38: Restaurant usage next year, by household income, October 2010
- Figure 39: Restaurant usage next year, by region, October 2010
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- Figure 40: Restaurant segments spending change, October 2010
Impact of Calorie Disclosure
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- Key points
- Effect of calorie count on dining out
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- Figure 41: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, October 2010
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- Figure 42: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 43: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by age, October 2010
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- Figure 44: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by household income, October 2010
Impact of the Recession
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- Key points
- Slump in spending
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- Figure 45: Impact of recession on dining out, October 2010
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- Figure 46: Impact of recession on dining out, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 47: Impact of recession on dining out, by household income, October 2010
Restaurant Transparency
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- Key points
- Scorecard on communications
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- Figure 48: restaurant transparency, October 2010
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- Figure 49: restaurant transparency, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 50: restaurant transparency, by gender and presence of children, October 2010
Interaction with Technology
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- Key points
- Gauge of technology usage
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- Figure 51: Interacting with restaurant brands through technology, October 2010
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- Figure 52: Interacting with restaurant brands through technology, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 53: Interacting with restaurant brands through technology, by age, October 2010
Attitudes toward Ingredients
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- Key points
- Popular thinking about ingredients
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- Figure 54: Menu ingredients, October 2010
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- Figure 55: Menu ingredients, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 56: Menu ingredients, by age, October 2010
Areas for Improvement
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- Key points
- How restaurants could do better
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- Figure 57: Areas of improvement for restaurants, October 2010
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- Figure 58: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 59: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by age, October 2010
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- Figure 60: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by household income, October 2010
Preferred Cuisines
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- Key points
- Flavor ratings
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- Figure 61: Interest in cuisine types, October 2010
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- Figure 62: Interest in cuisine types, by gender, October 2010
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- Figure 63: Interest in cuisine types, by age, October 2010
Kids and Teen Restaurant Usage
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- Key points
- Kids restaurant usage
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- Figure 64: Fast food usage, by eating occasion, among kids aged 6-11, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 65: Fast food usage by eating occasion among kids aged 6-11, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
- Figure 66: Fast food usage by eating occasion, among kids aged 6-11, by region, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 67: Reason for favorite fast-food restaurant among kids aged 6-11, by age group and gender, April 2009-June 2010
- Teens restaurant usage
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- Figure 68: Fast food usage by eating occasion, among teens aged 12-17, by gender, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 69: Top ten fast-food restaurants teens aged 12-17 visit, by gender, April 2009-June 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Consisters
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Healthers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Connectors
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 70: Dining out clusters, October 2010
- Figure 71: Restaurant usage, by dining out clusters, October 2010
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- Figure 72: Attitudes toward dining out, by dining out clusters, October 2010
- Figure 73: Effect of calorie count disclosure on dining out, by dining out clusters, October 2010
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- Figure 74: Areas of improvement for restaurants, by dining out clusters, October 2010
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 75: Dining out clusters, by gender, October 2010
- Figure 76: Dining out clusters, by age group, October 2010
- Figure 77: Dining out clusters, by household income, October 2010
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- Figure 78: Dining out clusters, by race, October 2010
- Figure 79: Dining out clusters, by Hispanic origin, October 2010
- Cluster methodology
Custom Groups—Light, Medium, Heavy
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- Key points
- Restaurant usage
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- Figure 80: Restaurant usage, by restaurant frequency groups, by usage, October 2010
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- Figure 81: Restaurant usage, by restaurant frequency groups, by usage, October 2010
- Changes in restaurant spending
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- Figure 82: Changes in restaurant spending, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
- Impact of the recession
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- Figure 83: Impact of recession, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
- Ingredients
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- Figure 84: Ingredients, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
- Interaction with technology
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- Figure 85: Interaction with technology, by restaurant frequency groups, October 2010
Appendix—Trade Associations
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